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SandRidge Mississippian Trust I Message Board

chegerar 132 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 10, 2016 7:14 PM Member since: Mar 29, 2006
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  • Reply to

    Countdown

    by cubemeister2001 Jul 8, 2016 3:50 PM
    chegerar chegerar Jul 10, 2016 7:14 PM Flag

    He also said current nat gas prices of $2 and $3 an MCF was unsustainable for ANY, not just ARP, but ANY and ALL gas drillers. Another statement that was perverted beyond all recognition by various unscrupulous characters.

  • Reply to

    Countdown

    by cubemeister2001 Jul 8, 2016 3:50 PM
    chegerar chegerar Jul 10, 2016 7:06 PM Flag

    Pish tosh, Ed Cohen actually said on the CC that the debt is unsustainable at current energy prices. He never said the debt was just plain unsustainable, a huge plus gigantic difference with enormous added to the tenth power.

  • Reply to

    Countdown

    by cubemeister2001 Jul 8, 2016 3:50 PM
    chegerar chegerar Jul 10, 2016 7:04 PM Flag

    We shall see. Buckle up and enjoy the ride.

  • Reply to

    Countdown

    by cubemeister2001 Jul 8, 2016 3:50 PM
    chegerar chegerar Jul 10, 2016 7:03 PM Flag

    Simply posting an Excel of oil and gas declines along with strip pricing is meaningless. Ed Cohen actually said on the CC that the debt is unsustainable at current energy prices. He never said the debt was just plain unsustainable, a huge plus gigantic difference with enormous added to the tenth power.

    I rather doubt anyone has enough input to make a meaningful model of ARP's earnings and production. They are not giving IPs or 30 day production numbers for the EF or EURs and I don't think they ever had, et cetera. Any number you can come to derive needs to be mated with projected energy prices and that is a very difficult thing to do hence people use the strip prices which are no more likely to be correct than a random dartboard divination.

  • Reply to

    Countdown

    by cubemeister2001 Jul 8, 2016 3:50 PM
    chegerar chegerar Jul 10, 2016 6:47 PM Flag

    If you share your research I will give you my take on your numbers just as I did for Herlod and we can go from there. Don't bother posting it unless you get your interest this week or by the one month grace period otherwise it won't mean very much.

  • Reply to

    Countdown

    by cubemeister2001 Jul 8, 2016 3:50 PM
    chegerar chegerar Jul 10, 2016 3:38 PM Flag

    Well, I think that's the heart of the matter. What you expect from the future. I have already put forth that ARP can sell the '18 & '19 oil and gas hedges to pay the revolver deficit. Then you would be at the whims of market prices in 17 months.

    If you expect $25 or $5 oil or more of $50 and $1 -$3 gas in 17 months then that does not will not look at all appealing. Oppenheimer is predicting $65 oil around that time and that sounds realistic to me. Gas is harder to predict but with a good possibility for La Nina plus increased demand $3.50- $4 is not out of the realm of possibilities.

  • Reply to

    Countdown

    by cubemeister2001 Jul 8, 2016 3:50 PM
    chegerar chegerar Jul 9, 2016 4:17 PM Flag

    If you say again that they have a billion in debt then why haven't MEMP and LGCY gone pre-pack as they both have over a billion in debt. Neither has drilled a new well in over a year, unlike ARP. Why not because they are trying to hand on. Then why wouldn't ARP try to hang on? This double standard does not stand up.

  • Reply to

    Countdown

    by cubemeister2001 Jul 8, 2016 3:50 PM
    chegerar chegerar Jul 9, 2016 4:13 PM Flag

    You consistantly ignore the cash value of the hedges. Why is that? Is it A. Because you don't understand hedges and haven't bothered to read the revolver agreement and thus are ignorant of what happens in such an event. B Because you have a hard on at getting new equity or C because you are trying to hoze investors?

    The fact is the have a $100 some million deficit with $400m of cash and hedge value. They can sell the hedges and have to then keep to the covenants. That this option is ignored or discounted on this board shows that you people only talk your book and are full of malarky.

  • Reply to

    Countdown

    by cubemeister2001 Jul 8, 2016 3:50 PM
    chegerar chegerar Jul 9, 2016 3:25 PM Flag

    I don't recall them ever saying the debt was unsustainable. He is what they said. I recommend you read it.

    This expected redetermination has been a
    factor in the Partnership’s evaluation of various options with its lenders under the Revolving Credit
    Agreement, its lenders under its Second Lien Credit Agreement and the holders of its senior notes with respect to its capital structure. As described in the
    Form 10-Q, the Partnership has a significant hedge position for the remainder of 2016 through 2018. In connection with the current redetermination, the
    Partnership continues to be engaged in discussions with the lenders under the Revolving Credit Agreement with respect to addressing the deficiency.
    Moreover, as of June 7, 2016, the Partnership has approximately $36 million of cash on hand. However, there can be no certainty that the Partnership will be
    able to implement any such options, and the Partnership cannot provide any assurances that any refinancing or changes in its debt or equity capital structure
    would be possible or that additional equity or debt financing could be obtained on acceptable terms, if at all. The Partnership expects to continue to be
    opportunistic and aggressive in managing its liquidity to meet its capital and operating needs.

    WF by cutting the revolver in such a way forced the talks. I think you know everything is on the table. I think you have no certainty what the out come will be. Since you are so sure why don't you lay out what you claim to know with 100% certainty. Isit equity at ARP gets 0? ATLS goes to zero too? Prefeered gets wiped out as well as unsecured is that your prediction?

  • Reply to

    Countdown

    by cubemeister2001 Jul 8, 2016 3:50 PM
    chegerar chegerar Jul 8, 2016 8:52 PM Flag

    The cash shortage can be covered three times over by the hedges. Another cut to the revolver also looks unlikely based on energy prices.

    The market is wrong daily about lots of stuff both retail and investment banks. There is a cost to doing a prepack in terms of higher interest rates when money is raised again in the bond market. MLPs are bond hogs and the Cohens' are empire builders. That needs to be weighed against the outlook for oil and gas plus the coming exit of energy killer B. Hussein Obama.

    In a few weeks we are likely to be talking about if ARP can make its covenants rather than Chap 11.

    My improved outlook for NG is more medium term rather than short. By '18 or so I expect prices back towards $4.

    I don't see Ed Cohen wiping out his own equity and preferred shares and if so we are not near there yet. We may be in the 6th inning. Its not the bottom of the ninth with two men out.

  • Reply to

    Countdown

    by cubemeister2001 Jul 8, 2016 3:50 PM
    chegerar chegerar Jul 8, 2016 7:09 PM Flag

    Pre pack is an option, so is straight Chap 11, so is paying the bonds int and paying off the deficit on the revolver. They have a lot of options.

    I am not sure what they will do. Mgmt has a lot of equity in ARP as does ATLS. There is also the risk to the reputation of the partnership biz to think of. Aside from all of that, I am more bullish on Nat gas than I have been. The build this summer has been slow and I did not correctly figure in the tightening effect of exports by ship. Ethane prices are much stronger than I figured and a second export terminal opens soon.

  • Reply to

    Countdown

    by cubemeister2001 Jul 8, 2016 3:50 PM
    chegerar chegerar Jul 8, 2016 6:22 PM Flag

    Common, bonds and preferred are all too cheap even in a Chap 11 situation let alone prepack. Whatever happens this rallies.

  • Reply to

    Countdown

    by cubemeister2001 Jul 8, 2016 3:50 PM
    chegerar chegerar Jul 8, 2016 4:08 PM Flag

    Do us a favor, when you get your bond interest next week. Can you stop moaning for a while?

  • Reply to

    What just happened

    by science_on_my_mind Jun 30, 2016 4:04 PM
    chegerar chegerar Jun 30, 2016 8:44 PM Flag

    collateral

  • Reply to

    NG! Anyone noticed?

    by jrfillion Jun 28, 2016 9:12 AM
    chegerar chegerar Jun 28, 2016 8:16 PM Flag

    NYMEX 12 month gas strip at today's close was $3.10, I don't call that well over $3 but current month closed today at $2.92. A nice move indeed. Lets hope there is a drawdown to go with it but I don't expect it since lots of demand due to price moved to coal for power.

  • Reply to

    NG! Anyone noticed?

    by jrfillion Jun 28, 2016 9:12 AM
    chegerar chegerar Jun 28, 2016 4:27 PM Flag

    They are all high debt and or high cost operators with plunging production and no drilling save EVEP who is low cost but mgmt is stealing (or screwing) from the company.

  • chegerar chegerar Jun 28, 2016 3:46 PM Flag

    Well, I agree with Cube at least with Swift, those guys took a dive IMO

  • Reply to

    NG! Anyone noticed?

    by jrfillion Jun 28, 2016 9:12 AM
    chegerar chegerar Jun 28, 2016 3:44 PM Flag

    If ARP goes, MCEP, MEMP, VNR, EVEP, and LGCY are all toast.

  • Reply to

    Something doesn't add up here.

    by sofyam263 Jun 21, 2016 6:34 PM
    chegerar chegerar Jun 23, 2016 7:58 PM Flag

    I just read the Feds will continue to allow fracking in pacific federal water, new permit system will be designed but I expect lawsuits to be heavy to delay permits. News is almost a month old. Boem dot gov

  • Reply to

    Something doesn't add up here.

    by sofyam263 Jun 21, 2016 6:34 PM
    chegerar chegerar Jun 21, 2016 7:32 PM Flag

    I reported (and took plenty of flak) on what has remained unspoken by mgmt, that the Beta field has been frozen to new drilling for the past seven months. This was MEMP's low cost oil upside and its latest purchase. They drilled a nice first well there Q2 '15 and had plenty more planned and now its white noise with nothing in the budget and no explanation publicly.

    The new regulations for Pacific federal waters offshore drilling and fracking should be coming out any time now, if not already, and the freeze could end but no idea what the new regs will alllow or how workable the new system will be.

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