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Southern Copper Corp. Message Board

chetgillespie 2 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 6, 2016 9:14 PM Member since: Mar 1, 1999
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  • Nothing has changed in 7+ years since the markets bottomed March 9, 2009. There are simply too many stubborn shorts.

    For 7 years shorts have been trying to predict the start of the next bear market, myself included for a time, and they've been wrong every time, including the most recent Brexit. Next up is Q2 earnings, which are likely to be 'less bad' than expected thus sending the markets higher.

    Who knows when the madness will end? For every short that gets margined out of the market, there seem to be 100 behind them ready to pick up the torch. Wall St has been delighted using every 'less than bad' event coupled with high short ratios to run the markets higher.

    I have no idea what future event will turn the tide of investor sentiment. Nobody does. Until then, the markets will continue on their trajectory of a topping formation that they've been in the past two years. Undoubtedly, the Fed will be working overtime to keep the markets stable through November 17 in an effort to support Hillary's election. If the markets experience a significant fall then Trump is a shoe-in, particularly since we're wrapping up 8 years with a Democrat in office and the parties tend to swap power back and forth. If Trump is elected, it would likely temporarily destabilize the markets, but I don't think investor sentiment will shift until there's tangible, documented economic loss and ensuing uncertainty. It could come from auto lending, housing market, oil, banks...or perhaps an accounting scandal bankruptcy. Valeant?

    It's interesting to note that with the exception of residential real estate, gold, treasuries and auto sales, the fundamentals have been deteriorating for quite a long time. Truly we're in uncharted waters. Even hedge funds are flummoxed and losing money. Employment is the last to feel the pain so Friday's numbers are important. But unless there's another horrible report like May, it's unlikely to change investor sentiment. GLTA.

  • Reply to

    Look out for the turnaround! - up 33% soon

    by a.dane Apr 6, 2016 1:38 PM
    chetgillespie chetgillespie Apr 20, 2016 10:52 AM Flag

    Still waiting to get back in. Until NASDAQ hits 5,000+ it seems LABD will continue downward...possibly as low as $30. That said, given that we're seeing the highest median valuation ever, the markets could begin plunging any day, and I could miss the low by a significant amount. Like every extremely overvalued market in history, this one will end badly.

    Every "less than horrible" event the past 7 years has been fuel for a new rally. It's remarkably consistent and predictable. This one is no different and likely won't be the last. The momentum has been with the bulls since Feb 11, mostly because weak shorts have been doing the usual run-for-cover thus unintentionally prolonging this tired bull market amidst a less-than-horrible environment.

    Shorting is a super high risk strategy and really should be reserved for those who have a) lots of cash to withstand a run up b) high EQ and c) tremendous patience. This should eliminate most would-be shorts, but unfortunately with the book/movie The Big Short, many decided they could be a player, too. Most will lose money.

    Speaking from painful, hard-won experience, my advice to most shorts is to get out of the markets altogether and wait until they drop 40-55% and then buy as much of the best companies you can. Good luck to all!

25.96-0.31(-1.18%)Sep 23 4:02 PMEDT