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Radian Group Inc. Message Board

cjdbs 15 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 5, 2016 5:58 PM Member since: Feb 4, 1999
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  • cjdbs cjdbs Jul 5, 2016 5:58 PM Flag

    Price war concerns totally overblown. RDN and MTG will be meaningfully higher by year-end and could both easily double over the next 12 months.

  • Reply to

    Kelly Blackburn leaving company

    by cjdbs Jun 18, 2016 12:55 PM
    cjdbs cjdbs Jun 28, 2016 11:36 AM Flag

    I see PACB getting bought out in the next 12 months. Only question is price. No real idea there. $12-15?? Biotech in worst bear market in 30 years. Things haven't changed that much from a year ago. They should gradually move higher as a group.

  • Reply to

    Kelly Blackburn leaving company

    by cjdbs Jun 18, 2016 12:55 PM
    cjdbs cjdbs Jun 28, 2016 10:23 AM Flag

    Thanks for the reply. I have had success buying bio on the cheap with potential catalysts: PACB, ACHN, NVAX. Bought all 3 around $2. LIFE's enterprise value is negative right now! More cash than market value-- even though obviously they will burn cash. But at current burn rate the cash will last through 2017 at least. Recent insider buying (April/May) by multiple insiders is a very good sign.

  • cjdbs cjdbs Jun 21, 2016 10:32 AM Flag

    Seems to defy all common sense. RDN generating earnings. BV continues to rise. Housing on a secular uptrend (household formation will soar simply due to demographics). Now at 0.8x BV-- the cheapest it has ever been (aside from the time when investors thought that RDN was Ch. 11). Only thing that I can come up with is increasing competition plus perhaps some regulatory issues that I have no idea about (pure speculation because I have no other answers-- I don't want to start any rumors here!).

  • Makes NO SENSE. The ONLY time in RDN's entire 24-year trading history that it traded lower vs BV was when housing was imploding and investors thought that RDN was going BK or Ch. 11.

    RDN should be trading at 1.5X BV right NOW. That would put RDN closer to $19. That is a reasonable fair value. Someone please clarify for me why it should be trading at $10.40. Earnings and book value are RISING. Housing is in a long, secular UPTREND. I just don't get it.

  • Prior to working at aTyr, she worked in same position at Vertex and before that Millennium Pharma (velcade). Big loss?? Hopefully that is not a sign of problems with the pipeline!! Any thoughts??

  • cjdbs cjdbs Jun 15, 2016 4:07 PM Flag

    Agreed. What a joke. Either they should announce a large buyback, or insiders should be loading up on the stock. Earnings are moving higher, BV moving higher, etc., etc. Stock at huge discount to BV. Stock is a giveaway at this point.

  • Reply to

    question on insider buys

    by gandhip Jun 9, 2016 10:39 AM
    cjdbs cjdbs Jun 9, 2016 2:22 PM Flag

    2016-05-09 MATSUOKA GROVE Bought 2,412
    2016-05-11 MATSUOKA GROVE Bought 10,000
    2016-04-14 SCHIMMEL PAUL Bought 66,219
    2016-04-13 SCHIMMEL PAUL Bought 9,835
    2016-04-12 SCHIMMEL PAUL Bought 9,127
    2016-04-11 SCHIMMEL PAUL Bought 32,659
    2016-04-11 SCHIMMEL PAUL Bought 32,659
    2016-04-08 SCHIMMEL PAUL Bought 85,000
    2016-04-07 SCHIMMEL PAUL Bought 40,000
    2016-04-06 SCHIMMEL PAUL Bought 25,000
    2016-04-05 MENDLEIN JOHN Bought 2,500
    2016-04-05 SCHIMMEL PAUL Bought 25,000
    2016-04-05 MENDLEIN JOHN Bought 2,500

    Mendlin is the CEO. Matsuoka is the newly hired SVP of Product Programs and Planning. Shimmel is a Board Member-- but importantly he co-founded or founding director of many successful biotechs-- seven of which have been bought out. CBST, Sirtris, ANLY, Repligen, ALKS. Mendlin's previous 3 companies have all been acquired-- Adnexus (bought by BMY), Monogram Biosciences (acquired by Lab Corp.) and Affinium (acquired by Debiopharm).

  • cjdbs cjdbs Jun 8, 2016 5:23 PM Flag

    God you're dumb. You can't even read these statements!! They are PRIVATE transactions. They could be done for tax or trust purposes. They tell you NOTHING about what the insiders think about the value of the equity. If any of these insiders were selling stock on the open market (they aren't) then maybe you'd have a case. But they aren't and you don't. Nice try. The ONLY direct open market transactions have been BUYS. 117,500 shares by 9 different insiders.

  • cjdbs cjdbs Jun 8, 2016 5:13 PM Flag

    Really morons?? DIRECT OPEN MARKET purchases:

    Timothy Mattke 1/26/16 20,000 @ $5.93
    Patrick Sinks 1/26/16 30,000 @6.06
    Jeffrey Lane 1/26/16 15,000 @5.93
    Michael Lehman 1/27/16 7,500 @5.99
    Timothy Holt 1/27/16 20,000 @6.36 and 6.40
    Edward Chaplin 1/27/16 5,000 @6.40
    Gregory Chi 1/28/16 10,000 @6.36
    Steven Mackey 1/28/16 5,000 @6.43
    Cassandra Carr 2/9/16 5,000 @6.35

    That's a total of 117,500 shares bought in the open market. ZERO insider sales.

  • cjdbs cjdbs Jun 8, 2016 11:00 AM Flag

    That is completely false. There has been ZERO inside selling since August of 2015 and by one insider. There were multiple insiders BUYING in January 2016. Actually 11 different insiders buying a total of 117,500 shares.

  • Reply to

    #$%$??? Don't get it

    by cjdbs Jun 2, 2016 10:10 AM
    cjdbs cjdbs Jun 6, 2016 3:13 PM Flag

    Oh-- and BV guesstimate is $13.50 by year-end 2016 and conservatively $15.25 by year-end 2017. 1.6x year-end 2017 BV estimate is $24.50. THAT IS MORE THAN A DOUBLE from current prices. At some point in 2017. So around 12 months.

  • Reply to

    #$%$??? Don't get it

    by cjdbs Jun 2, 2016 10:10 AM
    cjdbs cjdbs Jun 2, 2016 10:15 AM Flag

    Oh-- and I forgot to mention-- housing is on the UPSWING. Household formation is going to soar over the next few years, simple demographics.

  • RDN trading BELOW BV. In its ENTIRE 24-year history as a public company-- it went below BV in 1995 (low of 0.91x BV), in 2000 (low of 0.95x BV) in 2003 (low of 0.87x BV) in 2005 (low of 0.97x BV). It also went below BV in 2010 (low of 0.93x BV) and also in 2011 and 2012 when investors thought RDN was done.

    RDN has not traded below BV since 2012. And it makes no sense as BV is rising. The good news is that RDN traded well above BV in those years as well. in 1995 (high of 1.76x BV), 2000 (high of 2.14x BV), 2003 (high of 1.55x BV) and in 2005 (high of 1.36x BV). In 2011-2012, when investors thought RDN was dead, it traded above BV in those years!! 1.1x BV in 2011 and 1.18x BV in 2012.

    RDN should be trading at least 1.5x BV today. Growing earnings, less than 7x 2016 earnings. Solid returns, good profitability.

    The only thing that I can guess is that investors think that raising rates will be bad for housing. And that the pricing environment will stay competitive. Wrong, and wrong.

  • Reply to

    ESNT up 1.8%...........

    by homerunguy2000 Jun 1, 2016 12:59 PM
    cjdbs cjdbs Jun 1, 2016 4:04 PM Flag

    Yeah I don't get it either. ESNT now positive for the year. RDN down 8.5% and MTG down 20% y-t-d. Makes no sense. Good news is that if one rallies, leading the way, the others will follow.

13.77+0.05(+0.36%)Aug 30 4:04 PMEDT