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Linn Co, LLC Message Board

clrodrick 80 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Dec 2, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Blind leading the blinds?

    by thewisejman 10 hours ago
    clrodrick clrodrick 5 hours ago Flag

    I've always thought of Tom Lee as a perma bull. He always seems to be wearing the rose colored glasses

  • Reply to

    When you are least prepared the market crashes

    by thewisejman Oct 25, 2016 7:43 PM
    clrodrick clrodrick 5 hours ago Flag

    It is interesting that offshore yuan is lower to $US now than back in Aug 2015 that caused the flash crash. Guess the 'masters of the universe' figured out how to re-program the algos to not freak out with FOREX issues anymore

  • Reply to

    Does the market get scary

    by ockiote Oct 25, 2016 9:17 AM
    clrodrick clrodrick 6 hours ago Flag

    Agree, I'm not exactly buying the meme of 'stocks to the moon once Clinton wins' either.

  • Reply to

    Does the market get scary

    by ockiote Oct 25, 2016 9:17 AM
    clrodrick clrodrick Oct 25, 2016 2:11 PM Flag

    It is rather amazing (disturbing?) how tight a range today's markets are keeping. I think this is record setting in fact. Combine that with low volume, suppressed VIX (fear), and high frequency algos keeping a lid on things, we are setting up for a wild move one way or the other.

    I still hold a lot of cash but have bought a decent sized long position. As long as 2130 keeps holding, bears will continue to get frustrated. I will not be a seller until 2130 gets decisively broken to the downside and doesn't recover. Otherwise, I will ride it up to 2300 or wherever the true top ends up being. Only the programmers of the algos know that, heh.

  • clrodrick clrodrick Oct 25, 2016 2:05 PM Flag

    I think we are far enough along on the economic bull cycle to make me hold off from buying any BDC right now, but NMFC has proved its worth so far. I will be watching carefully to see how well their underwriting holds up during the next recession. One strike against them was that NMFC was not very diversified in their loan portfolio given how relatively small they were/are.

  • Reply to

    Is it a mistake to write off Trump?

    by thewisejman Oct 24, 2016 1:39 PM
    clrodrick clrodrick Oct 24, 2016 2:14 PM Flag

    Not a Trump fan, but not sure I would trust the polls saying Clinton has a big lead for two reasons

    A. Seems like polls are skewing the data in terms of who they poll. A lot of these polls have more democrats vs republicans than the true skew. Interestingly enough, one of the Podesta emails from the big hack shows an email from him directing the campaign to set up skewed polls for exactly that reason. They want as much as possible to diminish the excitement of the Trump brigade.

    B. Many times when asked, folks would be too embarrassed to go on record as saying they will back a person. Similar to those BREXIT polls that showed majority would vote NO when in fact they voted YES. They were loath to go on record as supporting BREXIT and spitting in the eye of the establishment. So we may be seeing another occurance of that.

  • Reply to

    Yikes......Obamacare disaster for 2017.

    by keltus1952 Oct 24, 2016 1:42 PM
    clrodrick clrodrick Oct 24, 2016 2:09 PM Flag

    Congrats keltus on your good timing.

    You have escaped from the ACA Titanic and boarded the S.S. Minnow. Now you are embarking on the infamous 3 hour cruise, ha ha. Good luck to you sir.

  • clrodrick clrodrick Oct 24, 2016 2:06 PM Flag

    Fair enough regarding the FTR bonds trading above par. I will just note though that we are living in unprecedented times in terms of how debt is priced globally. This is a very artificial bull market in bonds, and if/when they are ever allowed to trade again in a free market that would be interesting.

  • clrodrick clrodrick Oct 22, 2016 5:22 PM Flag

    Least risky just relatively speaking compared to the other choices. FTR has a MASSIVE debt hanging over it's head. That is why shorts are piling on left and right. I think FTR could be a very nice buy IF they execute well from that huge Verizon purchase *and* have those assets not go away anytime soon (IE folks do not cut the cord). But there is a very real situation where FTR could get snowed under by that debt if/when they are not in a strong enough position in the future to be able to pay it off or roll it over on agreeable terms.

    FSC is a BDC and deals with the junkiest of junk loans. Entire BDC sector is considered by most investment advisors to be one of the riskiest segments to invest in. Plus, we are in the tail end of the current economic expansion, likely to be a recession in 2017. BDCs do not do well in recessions for obvious reasons. Lots of loan write downs or write offs. Falling NII leads to slashed dividends. Plus FSC is viewed by many to be managed by greedy executives.

    As you note, SDOW is a levered entity and entails the most risk in holding onto it.

    So in comparison, GILD is the safest to hold, especially so at under $75/share. Even in a recession, GILD will still be selling HCV, HIV and other medicines since their customers are the government and insurance companies. All the political rhetoric about high drug prices will lead to new laws passed (like prop 61 in California), but I think other biotechs will be more affected by this than Gilead. From what I read, Gilead is not charging much more for their products from one party to the next. What they agreed with the Canadian and EU universal healthcare systems for Harvoni (around $48,000) is what they are charging for the various US entities. Same with HIV (Truvada) from what I read.

  • clrodrick clrodrick Oct 21, 2016 2:34 PM Flag

    In order of most risky to least risky


  • Reply to

    Latest Polls Trump moving Up

    by jfnh1 Oct 21, 2016 12:43 PM
    clrodrick clrodrick Oct 21, 2016 2:32 PM Flag

    There was a conspiracy theory that Trump never wanted to be president and was a Clinton placed trojan horse to implode the GOP. If so, mission accomplished. Trump and the Clintons were good friends going back many years.

  • Reply to

    OT: Barron's Article Pertaining to GILD

    by lnhirst Oct 20, 2016 12:31 PM
    clrodrick clrodrick Oct 21, 2016 2:29 PM Flag

    Yes, a heck of a pullback is right. Below $75/share, I think a lot is being discounted from GILD's pipeline. But of course all of biotech seems to be out of favor due to the pricing backlash going on at the political level.

  • Reply to

    OT: Barron's Article Pertaining to GILD

    by lnhirst Oct 20, 2016 12:31 PM
    clrodrick clrodrick Oct 20, 2016 2:56 PM Flag

    Saw that. I think it is way too early to see optimism or pessimism in NASH for Gilead or others. Frankly, Gilead is trading so depressed these days, NASH pipeline could be a total bust for it and it would still be trading at an okay level to hold. M&A will still be a driving catalyst for GILD, but they are being careful with not over paying for something like Allergan did for Tobira

  • Reply to


    by slicktop4 Oct 20, 2016 9:32 AM
    clrodrick clrodrick Oct 20, 2016 2:44 PM Flag

    Saudi used to need close to $100 oil to finance all of their welfare government programs without running a deficit. Now that they have cut a whole bunch of fat out of their spending, maybe $77 is all they need now.

  • clrodrick clrodrick Oct 19, 2016 3:41 PM Flag

    You never know what the future will bring, but it goes without saying that these articles are littered with coulds and maybes to cover their behinds in a journalistic sense. I could write an article with the title that I *could* become the world's richest individual by the end of 2016. I mean hey, it could happen, right? :-)

    I helped my mom recently do a cash out refi on her 30yr fixed to a 3.5% rate which just closed last week, so that is nice. Just a very modest cash out though to fund a few remodel projects. Kind of funny though how many hoops she had to jump through to get it done even though the debt/equity on that house is very low.

    And yet I read about all these new home buyers having an easy time financing a purchase with 3% down and listing their family members and roommates as additional payers to help bolster their case that they can afford buying the property that is 10x their annual salary. Kind of a bizarro world we have been living in since 2009.

  • Reply to

    "Social Security will get a meager $5 bump"

    by thewisejman Oct 19, 2016 10:21 AM
    clrodrick clrodrick Oct 19, 2016 3:31 PM Flag

    It cracks me up that Feds even try to say with a straight face that healthcare inflation was only flat to just minimally up the past year.

  • Reply to

    "Social Security will get a meager $5 bump"

    by thewisejman Oct 19, 2016 10:21 AM
    clrodrick clrodrick Oct 19, 2016 3:30 PM Flag


  • Reply to

    BE PATIENT bear with the market

    by slicktop4 Oct 18, 2016 9:27 AM
    clrodrick clrodrick Oct 18, 2016 2:40 PM Flag

    the NYSE A/D chart is the #1 thing to keep an eye on IMO to gauge whether it is time to go short. Until then, remain long with enough cash on hand to still sleep well at night during this late bull market

  • clrodrick clrodrick Oct 16, 2016 4:37 PM Flag

    Nope, I have not heard much. These things can be very slow moving and take forever to wrap up.

  • Reply to

    full disclosure: FSC

    by big_bags_o_cash312 Oct 13, 2016 1:32 PM
    clrodrick clrodrick Oct 14, 2016 7:34 PM Flag

    At least you have the monthly dividend payout to make any potential waiting more palatable. I think your trade will work out okay. In the meanwhile, it is happy hour! Time for a Stone IPA (or three) to wipe away any and all thoughts of central banksters like Yellen.