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Fortress Investment Group LLC Message Board

clrodrick 296 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 21, 2016 6:51 PM Member since: Dec 2, 2005
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  • Reply to

    got here

    by ockiote Jul 19, 2016 9:11 AM
    clrodrick clrodrick Jul 21, 2016 6:51 PM Flag

    I think yahoo wants to go bankrupt, only thing that explains why they insisted on the finance changes that IMO are so much worse than before. How much is Meyer being paid?!? Crazy dumb.

  • Reply to

    20,000 FOR THE DOW

    by slicktop4 Jul 16, 2016 6:02 PM
    clrodrick clrodrick Jul 17, 2016 6:02 PM Flag

    It comes down to what the central banksters want and how the various algos are programmed to react that do 90%+ of all the trading anymore. Anything is just a number to them, they will buy up to Dow 20k and S&P 2337 or sell down to Dow 10k and S&P 1200 if that is what their masters ask of them.

  • clrodrick clrodrick Jul 17, 2016 6:00 PM Flag

    Germany is in a tight position regarding trying to veto an ECB bailout of the Italy banking system. It absolutely *will* happen, as if Italy falls the entire EU disintigrates. Why would the entrenched elite establishment want that to happen? They are all-in on keeping the EU alive, and that means bailing out an insolvent Italy banks. Next after that will likely be DB, as they seem to heading in a one way path off the proverbial cliff as well.

    The real question one must ask is *how* ECB will go about bailing out Italy. In other words, what pain will ECB mandate the various investor classes go through in recapitalizing Italian banks? From what I've read, this is a sensitive issue, because unlike some of the other bail-outs that became bail-ins (with bond holders getting scalped and depositors being liable), the Italian situation involves a number of VERY well connected elites that hold various classes of debt (senior or otherwise) to the Italy banks.

    Goes without saying that rule 1 of establishment club is elites NEVER take a haircut or feel financial pain as part of a solution to a crisis. So somehow ECB will have to finagle things to make it a public tax holder bailout of these Italy banks. That ought to be interesting to watch play out.

  • Reply to

    Buying and selling with the Witches trio.

    by tonofelephant Jul 14, 2016 9:40 PM
    clrodrick clrodrick Jul 15, 2016 6:30 PM Flag

    Pharma/biotech is literally one of the (very) few or only sector that still has an attractive risk/reward to it today. It may still end up a sucker value pick depending on what the politicians do, but in the end the global populations need the life saving innovations coming from these companies. I have a bunch of low ball bids in place for a bunch of sectors just waiting for true value to return, but IBB/THW are the only ones to have triggered for me. I also am considering buying a few individual names.

  • Reply to

    Looking toward Monday.

    by bigbear.2010 Jul 15, 2016 3:36 PM
    clrodrick clrodrick Jul 15, 2016 6:22 PM Flag

    Any day after a triple witching option day is up in the air. Having said that, hard to fight the general trend of RISK ON continuing.

  • clrodrick clrodrick Jul 15, 2016 6:18 PM Flag

    Heck, China is a bunch of pikers compared to Ireland who claimed their GDP recovered 26%! Everything is awesome!

  • Reply to

    Crazy current market environment

    by jeffjone33 Jul 13, 2016 8:49 AM
    clrodrick clrodrick Jul 13, 2016 7:11 PM Flag

    2300 is very possible, although I think it is a stretch to say the fundamentals warrant it. We are trading at all time highs, yet GAAP earnings are back to 2012 levels. Corporate share buy backs are petering out now as well.

  • Reply to

    Crazy current market environment

    by jeffjone33 Jul 13, 2016 8:49 AM
    clrodrick clrodrick Jul 13, 2016 7:09 PM Flag

    pacman - you know mREITs better than I do, but how can you say the MTGE preferred is very safe? Aren't these mREITs extremely levered up, and if they make a big mistake in judgement with what rates are going to do won't that have serious consequences? WIth how crazy rates are going, seems risky.

  • Reply to

    NEW YAHOO FSC BOARD............

    by slicktop4 Jul 13, 2016 6:54 PM
    clrodrick clrodrick Jul 13, 2016 7:05 PM Flag

    yahoo has been testing their new revised finance section for quite a few months now. I just received an email from them stating that the new yahoo finance rollout will be permanent soon enough. Part of that rollout is getting rid of yahoo finance message boards for each stock. They are being replaced with conversations tab which operates a lot like leaving a comment on a regular article yahoo posts.

    Thus, I do not know for how much longer this message board will exist. Time to say our goodbyes I guess! it's been fun and educational hanging out at the FSC board. A lot of great posters here, bickering aside.

  • Reply to

    Yahoo servers or what?

    by ockiote Jul 12, 2016 10:17 AM
    clrodrick clrodrick Jul 13, 2016 7:00 PM Flag

    You better start screaming at the yahoo feedback page, because they just announced message boards are going away sometime soon and being replaced with 'conversations' tab. Think it works similar to how one comments on regular yahoo articles. Not a good move IMO, yahoo seems to be trying hard to mess up.

  • Reply to

    A Time To REAP

    by tulsadevlin Jul 12, 2016 12:14 PM
    clrodrick clrodrick Jul 13, 2016 6:58 PM Flag

    Frankly, the large cap biotechs are the only sector that is trading at a somewhat appealing valuation now. One of the few equities I still own is IBB which holds a lot of the large cap names as well as the smaller unproven biotechs. Been thinking about buying back into Gilead directly, same with Amgen

  • Reply to

    Is anyone buying anything today?

    by bigbear.2010 Jul 12, 2016 1:39 PM
    clrodrick clrodrick Jul 13, 2016 6:53 PM Flag

    Yes, apparently yahoo is dropping the message boards with the rollout of the new yahoo finance section. They are being replaced with the conversations tab which I think operates a lot like the comment sections of yahoo articles. Personally, I think the decision to do that is very dumb, it will drive many away to other sites like investor village

  • Reply to

    Reality of the environment as I said

    by pacman010987 Jul 12, 2016 9:42 AM
    clrodrick clrodrick Jul 13, 2016 6:49 PM Flag

    Hmm...not sure I get your logic there. If rates continuing to go down and down are a *good* thing for BDCs, then please tell me why so many BDCs are much closer to their 52-week lows rather than highs? Please tell me why vast majority of BDCs have reported falling NAVs and keep having to cut the dividends?

    I do agree with you that the current yields on BDCs make them seem appealing to investors in today's NIRP/ZIRP world. However, the underlying performance of the sector leaves a bit to be desired. The high yield payouts are nice, but it is like holding a melting ice cube. As time moves on the payouts keep getting smaller and smaller as new loans carry lower and lower rates (yet equally high risk of default)

  • Reply to

    Great Market

    by slicktop4 Jul 12, 2016 9:53 AM
    clrodrick clrodrick Jul 12, 2016 7:30 PM Flag

    nice job slick, have a Stone IPA on me. It's happy hour somewhere, right?

  • Reply to

    Reality of the environment as I said

    by pacman010987 Jul 12, 2016 9:42 AM
    clrodrick clrodrick Jul 12, 2016 7:28 PM Flag

    Please educate me on how sub 5% employment would drive higher demand for riskier asset classes? Are you trying to imply sub 5% unemployment = US economy going full bore? Normally that would be the case, but today is very different.

    Also, please educate me on how ultra low central bankster rates are a GOOD thing for health of BDCs? Last I checked, rising rates were better. Right now, many BDCs are stuck in a slowly circling and emptying drain where new loans keep coming with lower and lower rates attached to them which means meeting current dividend is harder and harder and brings about cut after cut.

    To say BDCs are in the sweet spot is a bit weird (and wrong). Loan delinquencies are *rising*, not falling. The rates BDCs are asking for new junky loans are falling, not rising. How is this the 'sweet' spot?

  • Reply to

    A Time To REAP

    by tulsadevlin Jul 12, 2016 12:14 PM
    clrodrick clrodrick Jul 12, 2016 7:22 PM Flag

    I'm mostly cash. Similar to 2007, once I saw several main market metrics top the 90 percentile in historical valuations I exited stage left. Missed about 8-10% of the remaining upside in 2007, and I expect I will miss something similar this go around as well. I will let the pro technical traders like slicktop try to extract every last bit of profits for this market before the ultimate fall.

  • Reply to

    A Time To REAP

    by tulsadevlin Jul 12, 2016 12:14 PM
    clrodrick clrodrick Jul 12, 2016 7:16 PM Flag

    Agree, if this bull market frenzy keeps going, I think GILD should be able to vault back over $100

  • Reply to

    Looking...

    by bigbear.2010 Jul 8, 2016 10:14 AM
    clrodrick clrodrick Jul 11, 2016 8:19 PM Flag

    Pretty much every BDC baby bonds is trading over par right now. I do not think it means the underlying companies are all financially robust, more likely just a frantic chase for yield. If you look at the baby bonds for even the least respected BDCs like MCC or FSC, they are even trading very near par or above.

    I am trying to be careful about which ones I buy, make sure the underlying BDC seems strong enough (or unlevered enough) to handle a shock to the system. I think TPVG will be a survivor, although the common could well get killed during the next crisis. The baby bond will likely take a big hit as well, but I am planning on just holding it until it either gets called or reaches its redemption date.

    Right now the only two I own are TPVZ and NEWTL, and I have limit orders set up to buy SAQ and NEWTZ if they ever drop.

  • Reply to

    Sold some NRZ shares, now what?

    by djp5625 Jul 9, 2016 12:59 PM
    clrodrick clrodrick Jul 11, 2016 7:58 PM Flag

    When this bubble bursts, there won't be any safe havens. At least none that one could buy today that offer a good yield. NRZ will get crushed along with just about everything else. I guess some think the JNJ and KMBs of the world will offer the best chance of coming out somewhat unscathed, but they have been bid way up.

  • Reply to

    2007 deja vu?

    by ockiote Jul 8, 2016 2:40 PM
    clrodrick clrodrick Jul 9, 2016 1:45 AM Flag

    You mean like the EU banking system imploding?

    Or China debt burden imploding?

    Or China currency devaluation imploding?

    Or spot oil price start to implode again?

FIG
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