PSEC? Highly doubtful. As you note, only BDCs to announce SPOs are the very few that are trading above NAV. MAIN is the only other one, but they said they would not be doing any in 2016
Overall home ownership % for US population remains pretty stagnant in the lower 60s% range. It has never recovered from 2008 even as Fed rushed in with QE and ZIRP. All that did was allow the .01% with all the money and insider access to all this unlimited cheap money the ability to buy their 50th, 100th, 500th, 1000th property. Goes without saying that even now something like 30% of all house sales are all cash deals. That ain't mom & pop.
I think yahoo wants to go bankrupt, only thing that explains why they insisted on the finance changes that IMO are so much worse than before. How much is Meyer being paid?!? Crazy dumb.
It comes down to what the central banksters want and how the various algos are programmed to react that do 90%+ of all the trading anymore. Anything is just a number to them, they will buy up to Dow 20k and S&P 2337 or sell down to Dow 10k and S&P 1200 if that is what their masters ask of them.
Germany is in a tight position regarding trying to veto an ECB bailout of the Italy banking system. It absolutely *will* happen, as if Italy falls the entire EU disintigrates. Why would the entrenched elite establishment want that to happen? They are all-in on keeping the EU alive, and that means bailing out an insolvent Italy banks. Next after that will likely be DB, as they seem to heading in a one way path off the proverbial cliff as well.
The real question one must ask is *how* ECB will go about bailing out Italy. In other words, what pain will ECB mandate the various investor classes go through in recapitalizing Italian banks? From what I've read, this is a sensitive issue, because unlike some of the other bail-outs that became bail-ins (with bond holders getting scalped and depositors being liable), the Italian situation involves a number of VERY well connected elites that hold various classes of debt (senior or otherwise) to the Italy banks.
Goes without saying that rule 1 of establishment club is elites NEVER take a haircut or feel financial pain as part of a solution to a crisis. So somehow ECB will have to finagle things to make it a public tax holder bailout of these Italy banks. That ought to be interesting to watch play out.
Pharma/biotech is literally one of the (very) few or only sector that still has an attractive risk/reward to it today. It may still end up a sucker value pick depending on what the politicians do, but in the end the global populations need the life saving innovations coming from these companies. I have a bunch of low ball bids in place for a bunch of sectors just waiting for true value to return, but IBB/THW are the only ones to have triggered for me. I also am considering buying a few individual names.
Any day after a triple witching option day is up in the air. Having said that, hard to fight the general trend of RISK ON continuing.
Heck, China is a bunch of pikers compared to Ireland who claimed their GDP recovered 26%! Everything is awesome!
2300 is very possible, although I think it is a stretch to say the fundamentals warrant it. We are trading at all time highs, yet GAAP earnings are back to 2012 levels. Corporate share buy backs are petering out now as well.
pacman - you know mREITs better than I do, but how can you say the MTGE preferred is very safe? Aren't these mREITs extremely levered up, and if they make a big mistake in judgement with what rates are going to do won't that have serious consequences? WIth how crazy rates are going, seems risky.
yahoo has been testing their new revised finance section for quite a few months now. I just received an email from them stating that the new yahoo finance rollout will be permanent soon enough. Part of that rollout is getting rid of yahoo finance message boards for each stock. They are being replaced with conversations tab which operates a lot like leaving a comment on a regular article yahoo posts.
Thus, I do not know for how much longer this message board will exist. Time to say our goodbyes I guess! it's been fun and educational hanging out at the FSC board. A lot of great posters here, bickering aside.
You better start screaming at the yahoo feedback page, because they just announced message boards are going away sometime soon and being replaced with 'conversations' tab. Think it works similar to how one comments on regular yahoo articles. Not a good move IMO, yahoo seems to be trying hard to mess up.
Frankly, the large cap biotechs are the only sector that is trading at a somewhat appealing valuation now. One of the few equities I still own is IBB which holds a lot of the large cap names as well as the smaller unproven biotechs. Been thinking about buying back into Gilead directly, same with Amgen
Yes, apparently yahoo is dropping the message boards with the rollout of the new yahoo finance section. They are being replaced with the conversations tab which I think operates a lot like the comment sections of yahoo articles. Personally, I think the decision to do that is very dumb, it will drive many away to other sites like investor village
Hmm...not sure I get your logic there. If rates continuing to go down and down are a *good* thing for BDCs, then please tell me why so many BDCs are much closer to their 52-week lows rather than highs? Please tell me why vast majority of BDCs have reported falling NAVs and keep having to cut the dividends?
I do agree with you that the current yields on BDCs make them seem appealing to investors in today's NIRP/ZIRP world. However, the underlying performance of the sector leaves a bit to be desired. The high yield payouts are nice, but it is like holding a melting ice cube. As time moves on the payouts keep getting smaller and smaller as new loans carry lower and lower rates (yet equally high risk of default)
Please educate me on how sub 5% employment would drive higher demand for riskier asset classes? Are you trying to imply sub 5% unemployment = US economy going full bore? Normally that would be the case, but today is very different.
Also, please educate me on how ultra low central bankster rates are a GOOD thing for health of BDCs? Last I checked, rising rates were better. Right now, many BDCs are stuck in a slowly circling and emptying drain where new loans keep coming with lower and lower rates attached to them which means meeting current dividend is harder and harder and brings about cut after cut.
To say BDCs are in the sweet spot is a bit weird (and wrong). Loan delinquencies are *rising*, not falling. The rates BDCs are asking for new junky loans are falling, not rising. How is this the 'sweet' spot?
I'm mostly cash. Similar to 2007, once I saw several main market metrics top the 90 percentile in historical valuations I exited stage left. Missed about 8-10% of the remaining upside in 2007, and I expect I will miss something similar this go around as well. I will let the pro technical traders like slicktop try to extract every last bit of profits for this market before the ultimate fall.