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First American Financial Corporation Message Board

commandor58 4 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 8, 2016 1:26 PM Member since: Dec 7, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Inventing Idea

    by commandor58 Jul 7, 2016 9:31 PM
    commandor58 commandor58 Jul 8, 2016 1:26 PM Flag

    On this theme of "helicopter" money, several thoughts come to mind:
    1)The most likely way it will come about is, increased fiscal spending-most likely infrastructure spending-financed by the central bank buying directly bonds issued by the government. Infrastructure spending is politically palatable and increased fiscal stimulus is consistent with my view that negative yields on sovereign bonds is a "license" to do more fiscal stimulus.
    2)China has a huge NPL problem within their banking industry-they (PBOC and China government) have to do a massive recapitalization of their banks. This process is going to involve massive increases in the supply of Yuan and therefore will lead to Yuan making new lows vs the $ and other currencies. Increased fiscal spending will also be used to soak up excesses industrial capacity-helping mitigate NPL losses. That fiscal spending will be financed by the PBOC buying bonds directly from the government-helicopter money.

    The question becomes, who will take action first? China or Japan. Also, Europe needs more Euro to recapitalize their banks. If China goes first, Japan will have to react. If they both go, then Europe will have to react, but their combined actions will send the DXY through the roof -forcing the FED to do QE4.

    Bottom line, I think stocks/gold/silver-the reflation trade-is still ongoing. However, an "event" either China or Japan devaluation is coming before the end of the 3rd Q. With that a sell-off to 1925-50 on the S&P 500. However, that will be a great buying opportunity because all the helicopter money and QE-from policy responses by other countries- will be "juice" for the reflation trade-S&P 500 to 2500 by late 2017.

  • commandor58 by commandor58 Jul 7, 2016 9:31 PM Flag

    Japan has been in deep macro-economic trouble for many years-recent fiscal and monetary policies have not been effective and they find themselves in a situation where the Yen is near a multi year highs vs the $ and the Yuan-hurting their exporters.

    I read today that Bernanke will be traveling to Japan next week to talk with Abe and Kuroda. I am speculating their discussions will involve implications and how to implement "helicopter" money strategies. If I am correct, with "helicopter" money programs put into play, then the Yen is going to fall hard. With that, Japan stocks will move higher. I have profitably owned closed end funds JEQ and JOF before-both now near 13% discount to NAV. As a speculation, I am going to buy both again as a play that some how and in some way, Japan is going to be successful weakening their currency in a big way. Some analysts have been calling for the Yen to fall to 200/1 vs the $, from about 100 now. If the move is even 20-30% of that, JEQ and JOF should have good % profits.

  • commandor58 by commandor58 Jul 3, 2016 11:29 AM Flag

    have been the news lately with all their religion inspired killings. I have posted in the past that the solution is to attack the ideology. Christianity has gone through great transformations with the: Council of Nicea, protestant reformation and even the Catholic Church undergoes regular reinterpretations to become more updated.

    On the other hand, the "Q" is a 7th century social contract which has never been updated-except S.A. has changed some of the "war" language to include modern weapons-and hence has been obsolete for over 1000 years.

    If the world wants to end WWIII-the world vs the necromongers- then the world is going to have to force the necromonger leadership to rewrite the "Q". Otherwise the necromongers will continue to behave like rabid animals-killing whatever is close-before its dies of its own disease.

    In summation, military and political action will not be enough. The only way the war will be won is to attack the fundamental "Q" idealogy-to force rewriting the Q to rid it of many passages that justify killing non-necromongers and other hateful themes.

    It my discussions with others, they say it can't/won't be done. I say it has to been done and the precedent has already bet "done" by S.A. rewritting the "Q" to add modern military weaponry to their version of the "Q".

    Frankly, I'm quite surprised this view has not been promulgated at higher levels of western: government, military, media, and academic leadership. Unfortunately for us, the west is lead by a bunch of visionless dolts.

  • Reply to

    Brits out.....bloodbath tomorrow

    by hopeful200 Jun 24, 2016 12:34 AM
    commandor58 commandor58 Jul 1, 2016 12:52 PM Flag

    From a "big" picture point of view Brexit means two additional points i want to add:
    1)Globalization has unleashed "deflationary" forces as high wage countries have been forced to compete against low wage countries-will many low wage countries continuing to weaken their currency to maintain their comparative advantage. For example, the Chinese Yuan hit another 5.5 year low today at 6.66-last week's close was 6.62. Tariffs and other measures to protect high wage industries (the reaction to globalization) will lead to "inflationary" pressures-good for gold/silver. Silver hit a 22 month high today, gold near a 27 month high

    2) Because of computing power and our fast changing world, businesses have been "flattening" their mgt structures (fewer levels of of mgt, so decisions can be made closer to the customer). This process has been going on for 30 years. Governments have been going the opposite direction. For example: the EU's Brussels and more power centered in Washington when the power of central governments should be weakening relative to local government so decisions can be made (more responsively) at the taxpayer level.
    Unfortunately, central governments are very reluctant to give up power and consequently will continue to:
    1)Accumulate power
    2)Add ineffective programs and mgt levels

    to the detriment of taxpayers, larger deficits, and lower productivity-all will contribute to societal breakdowns. Also bullish for gold/silver

    The negatives of the centralization of government power got a wake up call with Brexit. However, this message is going to be lost. Central government power won't be reduced until the next great recession when it will be starved of revenues. The policy response will be central bank money printing, leading to inflation, also bullish for gold/silver.

    So until you see central governments slimming down and forcing decisions back to state and local levels, then bad results will continue.

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