My prediction for full year loss for 2016 is AU $130M I think it might be low. I am waiting for cash flow report in a week or so before I raise it. We will know early September the official number. Since I am a basher you must think I am very high. Would you care to say what you think the loses will be? Surly you have an opinion.
Could you please tell me what your definition of Bashing is. For 1 st half of FY 2016 I predicted a $55M loss they loss $66M. Last 4 Qs I have made very grim predictions on cash except for one all were worse than I said. I said they would need a bail out early june they had to get it Late April . Yes I post very negative things with facts of why I say it. But hardly would I call it bashing if it comes in worse. I guess anyone that does not agree with you is a basher. Please go find a place that shares your fairy tails. Till then you should buy buy buy using every penny you can scrap up maybe it will make you rich.
I found a great web site today. “Quandl” It does not have prices for REE but just about anything else you can think of it has. All its graphs are interactive. So if you want to know the price of Cod fish or Zink on a given date just move the cursor to the date or type it in for more info. If it is a commodity traded at auction they have it. They also list futures. Unfortunately REE is not traded at action it is still done by private deals.
Why cannot supply be true? If you were a manufacture and you knew taxes would be cut by 60% 6 weeks in the future. Would you not hold all you could till that date? Let me be clear I am not sure that it is 60% What I have read is when it was weight based and prices tumbled. People were speculating that the tax was more than half the price. I have read speculation the price would have to more than double for Nd before the government gets the same amount / Kg. I found it interesting the metals you used and time period. The ones you used do have a soft link to REE. But why not just stick with REE. If you had done a 6 month check on REE they are flat to up slightly up. I prefer to use either a short term to see recent movement or a Year to avoid seasonal variations. The following price Quotes are LME Prices on London exchange in US $ / ton
July 11 ’15 July 8 ‘16
Aluminium.... 1642 1636
Copper 5761 4705
Lead............ 1819 1787
Nickel..... 11,415 9670
Zinc............. 2095 2061
As you can see all are virtually flat over year. I will agree that the 6 months gains indicate a good turn around. My primary source of economic trends is the “Economist” It is a little nerdy but a good read. They still do not see things going up for a while.
I think I see more of your logic on REE Prices. Do you believe people reactions to information is a bigger mover than supply and demand? If this is true than I understand your point of view. I do not agree I always fall back on fundamentals like earnings Debt ratios and Supply and demand. You have a great example in your favor. The 2011 run up was caused more by people reacting to it than the actual tightening. Would you accept that if prices turn and go positive you are more likely correct. If prices stay low for 6 months or just slightly positive off May Levels than I am correct.
An interesting idea occurred to me while looking at the June run up and July fall in prices. I still believe that supply and demand have a far greater effect on prices than what people think government actions might cause. Back 4 years ago one of the reason I got out of REE is the combined output of MCP and Lynas would have been a 75% increase in worldwide production. Once MCP was shut down I stopped worrying about price impact of new supply. While trying to learn more about the resent price swings I was again reminded that china in 2015 was 97 % of world production at about 95KT. Lynas did a great job of ramping up in Q 1&2 producing 6.337 KT. On a yearly rate this is just under 13% of last years WW production. Assuming some ramp up in Q3 and Q4 Lynas will produce 13KT this year which is about a 13% increase in supply. The world is in an economic slow down. Cheap gas has decreased demand for electric cars, both hybrids and all electric. In the US and other countries that pushed large wind farms development has stopped while changes are made to absorb this power. In North & South Dakota and Wyoming the wind farms go forever. Even moderate winds result in generators being shut down because the network cannot absorb power. Ree Demand was almost flat last year to this year. What is the effect of Lynas adding 13% more product to this market? We saw Lynas prices for SEG drop by 80% while the minerals in the SEG only dropped about 10. Reason, no capacity in the market to refine the SEG. I think I have been making a mistake in not figuring Lynas output as being one of the variables on price. At 22 KT Lynas out put will be 22% of 2015 WW Production. Can The market absorb this?
If you google "Rare Earths Market 2016 Q&A With Ryan Castilloux" You will find and interesting interview. I found this while looking for more on Tax changes in China on REE. Now this was done in June and we can already see where some things are wrong. Rare Earths Market 2016 Q&A With Ryan Castilloux. Now if you remember Ryan was the person that predicted in late 2014 that REE prices would increase 8% CAGR in 2015.
10% CAGR in 2016 and 8 to 10 % CAGR through 2020. He obviously has missed by allot , so far, but he and Garth Hatch are very knowledgeable and bring insight to the Market. Just because prediction have missed lately does not mean they do not have good insight into what happened.
Yes I have been saying it for about 18 months. What is my critical point.? That to take this over Lynas has to be making at least a little money. I think loses will be over $130M this year. So Lynas will hit the money wall again, if prices stay low in 3 to 5 months. If prices recover then December When the interest for CY 2016 comes due. They will make a deal again because the debtors Jare and MK cannot take them over while they are losing money and this I have only been saying for 12 months. If you think I am wrong show me how they make enough cash by December to meet the payment. You say I have been saying this for some time and I have. I include things that have to be met before it happens. Now I am not sure how long but my memory is you have been saying that Lynas turns the corner very soon for a very long time and the sock keeps going down minus a few spikes. I asked in another post what you thought the P& L for FY 2016 would be you have not answered. How can you be bullish on a company with no guess on what the profits for this year might be. Profits make the world go around. My guess is greater than $130M That’s a loss. That’s more than -$10 for every KG produced.
When I see the cash flow report I may adjust my loss up or down and you can do the same. My guess is my losses get bigger but right now I am being very conservative. We will know who is correct on this late august or September.
I read that and that further proves my point they bought nothing in June so that could not be what caused run up. Further they had nothing to sell so how could that cause decline. Now Manufactures had to pay more taxes on product sold in June than July but you don.t think they would hold back any significant amount of product. out of the expected 98KT they are producing this year to save taxes. When I google what you suggested I just used REE bu china. I came up with several articles. Yes the failed bid was when you said but the plan to stop bidding was not till July. Plus you have yet to explain how a 20 KT plan with no buys or sells could cause the swing. I stay with tax break. Now I am done so you can have the last word.
Just reread the article in your post today. This plan never really got started. Disputes over prices keep volumes down and they were small to start 20 KT. So I will again reference. your June 8th post. The tax law was changed effective July 1 Reducing the tax on REE. ( as long as prices stay low) So manufactures held back product till July incurring much smaller tax burdens. So prices rose with the restricted supply in June and when the tax rate dropped prices dropped when the manufactures started to unwind this stored product. I said this to your June post, It happened like I said ( the swings were bigger than I expected) and now I will add the government program had nothing to do with it except in your mind.
First thank you for post I did not know this. I also did not know that Te. drooped 21% in July.
I missed when this plan was implemented that it is small only 20KT Less than Lynas hopes to produce in a year. I am confused by the statement "20% to 30% more than what the bids came in at" Are these outside bids from users of REE? or government bids for product. Are the suppliers expecting a bail out by having the government buy much higher than Market? 20 KT is small compared with yearly world wide productions. This would be a better plan if they just paid producers not to produce. Trouble with this plan is when prices rise the stock piles will be sold down putting a damper on how much prices will rise. But then again 20 KT is not much so if the stock pile is sold slowly very small effect.
First they stopped stock piling just two days ago. Listen to what your article says. Stop Stockpiling. It does not say sell stock piles. Stopping the stockpiling eliminates some of the up pressure we saw during June. It does not create down pressure that has caused nearly a 10% drop in 5 business days. That kind of drop takes major selling. Selling created by manufactures selling to take advantage of new tax rates.
You are desperate to make me wrong and I am afraid it has clouded your thinking. A little while ago you posted the start of the plan as good for Lynas and touted how much it would help Lynas. Now trying to prove me wrong you post the temporary suspension which will keep prices lower just to say See CJ you are wrong. In fact it does nothing to dispute my idea put forth in early June which you ridiculed saying it will never happening. it happened.
If this temporary buying hold last very long The lower prices will hurt Lynas and they may need another special deal even earlier than My Dec Prediction. First half of 2016 they loss AU $ 66 M Producing 6,337 Ktons . a over $10 / KG loss
Whats your guess for the full FY?
Toly article is ok but I strongly feel it might have been fed to him by Lynas. Big deal about repayment. Lets look at facts. $8.m given to Lynas in April by moving past interest payments from restricted cash to operating funds. All Calendar year interest deferred to December. this included $1.xx M paid in January being moved to operating funds. Not sure of interest payments with all the changes but it is between AU $ 14M and $18 M YR. Remember loans are stated in US $ but payments in AU$. As far as interest being reduced this is good news. However it is still 2.5 X what a company with good credit would pay on a short term bound today. The deferred amounts go onto the loan balance and collect regular interest ( no penalties). If you see a way to make the December Payment I would like to hear it. They will not make it in my opinion. They will not go bankrupt another special deal will be made at last minute. (possibly before AM)
Creditors want this plant to stay open, to close it means they lose everything. IF it can make money then they can take it over and put it on their books for at least part of what is owed. I think Lynas will lose $120M to $130M this year. Whats your # If creditors take it over with that kind of loss, the value is Nil they loose everything. They will keep given special deals till production is smooth and REE prices up. Take it private flushing debt and stock holders. Invest in improvements. Then in a few years go public recovering allot, not all, of their money and still have controlling interest. They will never get all their money back in next 10 to 15 years. But this will do very well long term.
You did post factual info. You just failed again to comprehend what you posted. I
find it interesting that when people are confused and frustrated they resort to vulgar language and changing facts to make up for their lack of understanding. Again look at title and text of what You posted and what author said then I expounded on "Rare Earths MMI: Chinese Producers Stockpile REs Ahead of Consolidation" Now I admit that the title says consolidation which is a little bit miss leading but much of text, (You did read your own article didn't you? ) Talks about Tax change.
This is much like when you post about refi you see it as great. I see it as just delay It just like someone making a minimum credit card payment by borrowing money from another credit card. The debt grows and eventually there is no way out except bankruptcy. If the amounts were getting smaller and time between these actions longer then I might say they could make it. But amounts keep going up and time down. To understand the present and future you have to remember the past. You apparently cannot even remember what your post of June 8 said. It was accurate you should carefully reread it.
First please read title of of your June 8 post. Rare Earths MMI: "Chinese Producers Stockpile REs Ahead of Consolidation" I never said they bought anything though you are always desperate to change things to fit your point of view. Now read article you posted June 8 you do remember that far back. the author clearly says Tax code changed July 1 from weight based to value based, that with the Low REE prices this would lower taxes on REE from mines. You touted this as good I said prices would go up then down. exactly like they did. I think you failed to comprehend what your own post was saying. I am surprised you did not delete June 8 post it is your usual response to being wrong.
Prices of REE have been down the first days of July. After coming close to their prices of a year ago during late June they have fallen, a couple 10% depending on what you look at. Interesting that some of the less pure products like 50% Ce and La have actually gone up a little (1%) I predicted fall when stock dude posted how the tax change, consolidation and crack down on illegal mining was going to send prices up. I do not think they will stay this low for very long this price drop is caused by stockpiling that took place waiting for the tax break and now this REE is hitting market, it should not take long to deplete stock piles. Over the year prices should rise and end up 5 to 10% up from what they were in April-May before these swings caused by tax changes occurred. I am sure there will be many swings in between to make people excited or depressed depending which way swings occur. As far as illegal mining goes anyone who has been in this market for several years know that China announces a crackdown once or twice a year. (Usually for environmental reason, this was protection for miners) Not once has it changed anything. Yes they may someday actually do something but till I see it I will ignore the announcement. You can read both our comments in his June 8 posting “Rare Earths MMI: Chinese Producers Stockpile REs Ahead of Consolidation”
Nothing wrong with difference of opinion. I can be glad I sold at $1.4X and still feel bad they did not. I probally did make a few mistakes unlike you I do make mistakes and always appreciate it by acknowledgment when they are pointed out. You have caught me on a few bad ones in the past., Rather than leave other people out why don't you help them and me by pointing them out rather than just saying they are there. I do find it interesting you say the market agrees with you. End of July two years ago. LYC.AX AU $0.22 November 25 2015 $0.14 and two months ago APR 6. $0.86 today $0.68. I am not saying this is not a turnaround there is some interesting news. But to make a future prediction of turn around on one day change in stock price and one news release with only a few numbers seems a little reckless. Are you still buying?
This is much more positive than I expected. What is really surprising is the repayment of the funds from restricted cash. Like you, I am now waiting to see Q cash flow report to see how this all balances. Though encouraged I still remember Qs 1&2 where the cash flow looked ok but there were a few strange things showing up. These were confirmed when Semi-annual report came out with a $60 M + loss. I am still expecting a loss of over $60M for the second half probably a total of over $130M for the year. I may have to lower this when the cash flow report comes out. Cash flow reports are just so easy to manipulate by not paying vendors, receiving prepayments for product, paying vendors with stock, deals to defer debt. All this comes out in the P&L statement. So things like deferring all debt payments till December really helps the Cash flow statement but the deferred debt shows up on the P&L. The deferred debt interest payment is far greater than the repaying of the US $8M. As much as I want to see Q report, we should in 3 weeks or so, it is annual report in late August early September that will really tell us if they have turned the corner. I have friends that still own this I sincerely hope they have turned I would rather be wrong than see them take large losses. For me turning the corner will be paying interest to who it is owned not into restricted cash. Payables and receivables in balance, not the current ratio of about 20 to 1. Not paying major vendors with stock. Not making deals to receive large prepayments for product. When they can do these things and still have positive cash flow then they are on their way. Please do not misunderstand me. They had to do these things to survive and the very fact they did it says allot and I admire them for the way they have done it to survive. Long term it is like watching a person using one credit card to pay the minimum on another.