Counter offer $40. Meet in the middle.
This company has revenues of 1.5 billion per year. It will have revenues of 4 billion per year in 2015-2016 by the most conservative estimates. Margins are huge. 60% range. Market cap of around 20 billion is minimal. Stock to $100 at least. Buyout may not be possible because vertex is getting to be a big fish. Longs should not want a buyout. This is the Amgen of the next few years. I expect sales to increase and stock to be well over $250 in a few years.
this company will be sold. only a matter of time. 400 million in tax write offs alone. RCG may be a small market, but large pharm companies are looking for large margin, patent protected products. The gout market is huge and it ideal to own the range of therapies in this market...for obvious reasons.
We have seen a great increase in use of Ofirmev. I believe the SGA costs are still large. Time for a big boy to step in and cut SGA costs. BAXTER comes to mind since DESFLURANE is losing patent protection. I am predicting a 1 billion buyout by BAX. Heck, they even make the stuff in their own factory. Convenient.
SVNT will be sold. There is value in the product to a pharma that has gout drug portfolio like Takeda. It has several hundred million in tax adavantage and a product that has protection until 2026. The RCG numbers may not be as high, however, worldwide there is a significant need that this drug can meet. But SVNT cannot market this drug it's self. It needs a big boy with lots of sales folks who can go to PCP and a big pharma with worldwide reach and perhaps a lower per unit price. Company has value. It can fit nicely in a niche for a big pharma. They buy worst junk than SVNT all the time. Target purchase $10-
yes. hospira has had a plant closure due to FDA action for months. see their CC and subsequent stock collapse.
ok mr pro. I think what we disagree on is the number of cases and the rate of recurrence. The 3 million number I used comes from our hospital infectious disease people from US in 2008. It is hard to get accurate number BUT you have to realize that many million of people, well over 10 million if not more are CDIFF carriers. You can be a healthy carrier of cdiff and it becomes an issue if you pass on to others via the fecal oral route. So 10s of millions have it. 3 million get sick from it and present to hospitals each year from it. Out of that you have mild/moderate/severe cdad. Most are moderate. I think the disagreement over the numbers has to do with severity. It is hard to pin down exactly how many are moderate/severe because data is incomplete/lacking. There is a lot of educated guessing here. So of the moderate cases many will NOT get Fido. The severe cases which are recurrence in elderly, sick folks, WILL get fido. The bulk of recurrence cases in each class will get FIDO because it is known that it has a lower recurrence rate. Price will NOT be an issue because 1. Vanco is expensive. 2. Recurrence and ICU is VERY expensive. 3. Fido is cheap! $2800/10 days is not much in elderly septic pt who is sucking up hospital resources.
So how many pts are moderate recurrence or severe/severe recurrence that is the question. You base your numbers on the VPHM vanco market. You fail to realize that Metornidazole is still being used in many places and that the marketplace for the disease is only going to get bigger with more elderly and sicker nursing home pts, etc. Our overall incidence of pathology is growing in this country. In my earlier estimation is basically said that Fido will be prescribed to 150K pts at the peak. That is not some wild dream number but very conservative and real.
There is an investor on this board who claims that the incidence of C Diff is decreasing and that there is not much market for this drug. He is WRONG. The incidence and cost of treating C Diff is at all time high. Last year there were 3 million cases in the US. The virulent Quebec strain is extremely dangerous and deadly. Elderly pt from nursing homes are at great risk. Vanco is very effective but relapse rate is higher than fido.So first line will still be vanco (note: metronid is not longer recommended for moderate CDiff which is what most pts present with) Fido will be used for pts who relapse. The question to answer is how many pts relapse from vanco and end up back in the hospital and what is the cost of that? The answer, several hundred thousand with the cost in the hundreds of millions. Relapse has a high morbidity and mortality and some pts end up having a colectomy as a last resort and thousands die!! So fido will be used primarily in relapse, elderly, septic pts who have failed mgmt with vanco. This market is in the several hundred thousand range in the US alone. I am going to estimate that out of the 3 million cases of c diff (2008 data) 10% are severe relapse pts. (range is 3-20% depending on several factors, criteria, etc) That is 300K pts. That is the peak sales potential. 300K x $2800 = 840 million peak sales. I will take 50% off to be conservative with pricing discounts, future unknowns, etc. That is 420 million dollars per year peak sales. You can use whatever metric you want. But the stock is grossly undervalued here. I estimate 4 x sales = 1.6 billion market cap. thanks for listening.
Who has the time or energy or willingness to sit on this message boards and answer every post and place a negative spin on SVNT? Paid, professional shorts, that;s who. They want the price down so they can continue to profit from the stock's slide. But all short positions eventually need to be covered. More K is being used every day and a drug like this will take a couple of years to reach the intended population. Coverage is not a problem. Insurance companies cover much more expensive and useless drugs than this. RHUM community education is key, followed by coding/reimbursement. The pts will love this treatment. SVNT will easily sell hundreds of millions here. But it will take time. In the meantime we will be assaulted by educated, professional, shorts....in the end they can't stop the drug from being sold/used. stay tuned.