Personally, I am not worried, but I get everyone has a different tolerance for volatility. To me an understanding of the big picture is my haven. Its dress down Friday.
The reason is, if you hand a prescription to a patient and they go off to Walgreens...the drug is too new and few pharmacy's will stock the drug. So the Pharmacist will most likely fax the Rx to the Specialty pharmacy. Recall 1 mo cost $1950 and it will require a review for payment to be made. And a pharmacist (who is on a learning curve too) may not be able to explain all the new issues with the new drug. Remember also, the patient has psychosis so chances are the drug will be picked up by a family member in the future. Nuplazid Connect will verify the Free 1 mo supply medication goes to the correct address and all the proper information is explained correctly. This is not an unusual program. Patient safety is the utmost importance. Payment is a secondary issue with a new drug.
5/31/2016 Short Interest 20,625,398, Days to Cover 7.907511 , Covered- 1,505,502 shares. Previously it has been in a 13-14 mil range for a while until about Feb 12 when the number went to 15,550,403. We'll see if it starts a downward pattern. Thanks.
It really does sound bad. You can remove both posts you know. Just a suggestion. My great grandmother was from Europe too, Segovia Spain.
“ It is like a tiny drop of water dripping into a giant cup. It will drip slowly over the years. Then, like a great
thunder, the final drop overflows the water from the cup. Only then will your eyes finally close and see nothing.
From one to nothing all things will fall to your feet. You can then dance with the torch of freedom...."
Judge for yourself. You are a shareholder so listen to it when you have some times, about 40min.
You know, Davis is not a pumper, he along with Moore don't try to put a positive spin on every issue. They explains well each process that are on going. If its a slow process they says so, if they are advancing well he say's that too. One of the processes that is on going is the reimbursement program, Nuplazid Connect. They do everything to get the patient the medication free for the first 30d while the prescription is being "adjudicated", ie reviewed for payment. There is NO DELAY for the patient to start treatment. There is also a "Bridging Program " for patients who complete the 30d trail and are still waiting to get the medication on their doctors prescription. Now the concept of "Negative symptoms " in schizophrenia is a major unmet need. These patients get an anti-psychotic titrated up but still have the "negative symptoms" ...so ...yep..they get another anti-psychotic that has a similar mechanism of action. And as you recall many of these anti-psychotics have SAE's. There were many other issues discussed. Go listen for yourself.
1) BUY OUT- Who knows when this could occur, but it will make your head spin when it hits.
2) Launch USA Nuplazid in June 2016....DONE- NOW AVAILABLE
3) AD Psychosis Phase 2 Proof of Concept trial - Enrollment completed Mid 2016,
4) AD Psychosis Phase 2 Top line data reading out in the Q4 2016
5) AD Agitation Phase 2 on track to start Q2 2016
6) EU - Marketing Authorization Application (MAA) but still waiting for the Pediatric Investigation of Plan (PIP) waiver-this could take 4 mos +, but I would bet no longer than 90d to get the waiver. Guessing EU Launch could occur in less than 6-9mos. Davis will provide updates on this issue.
I don't consider most Presentations a "catalysts " unless news is expected. Please feel free to make other suggests to my list.
Acadia Pharmaceuticals $ 42.07 Short squeeze potential....
Short Interest (Shares Short)
Short Interest Ratio (Days To Cover)
Short Percent of Float
Estimates of revenues range from $3 to 5 Billion. Nuplazid cost $1950 per month. Remember its the ONLY drug indicated to treat a terrible condition. Off label will be huge as time goes on. Very safe profile. ACAD buy out range could be in the $75-85 range. Share price today $41.55, Shorts in big trouble.
I will have to be honest with you, I rarely see a stock like this...small biotech with only a P2 result drop with a 50% retrace. I think 61.8% or 100% is more likely. So lets use High (15.84)-Low(3.45) numbers with a 61.8% Retrace. You will see the retrace will drop it to $8.18.
I use to rely on stockta for their numbers, but they only use a 3mo chart and they only show Support, the highest is $39.51. So now I am just eye-balling it on the 1 yr Yahoh chart. BTW, they don't seem to like the recent Candlestick Pattern....not to worry that is very short term and of course doesn't account for any news.
Recent CandleStick Analysis
Jun-07-2016 Bearish Harami
Jun-03-2016 Bearish Harami
Jun-02-2016 Bullish Engulfing