No question the BUSINESS is on the cusp of being a decent one, maybe a good one. The financials are horrible. I want to invest but not as an unpreferred shareholder! SP trend is interesing...
Good observation. I think cpxx will get another bidder, market thinks so too. Could be that teva doubles the jazz bid. Then jazz can walk away with breakup fee and buy us... eventually!
Looks to me like the full share count will be 27 m + the 8,6 from the prefered + the 3.7 m options/w... making 40 m fully diluted. Cash from op/w will pay off the 5.6 accrued dividend... at least what it was last year. Real EV is this already 80m and Foresight sales are 15, maybe 17 this year. So valuation is already some 5x sales, given other stuff is not worth much. Add to that they need to raise cash again, hence the Zack/ROth piece?
Hardly any arb margin left... sign of another bid expectation. Who wants to leave value to Jazz. A heavyweight player can do a lot more a lot faster in the AML space than Jazz....
Not if, but when... and based on jazz kind of multiple. Plafrom might add much more.
Now we are in play. If Jazz sp does not go down, means we will look attractive to another bid. Of course 8 billion needs to be discounted back to today but still, 1.5 b is cheap once in play. I say 3 b, or goes for 60 a share!
60c with these numbers says no capsize yet. Wasn't the plan, but this has become a binary event company: either they get these deals they still promise in the next 30 days or so - and they are large - or they will hardly get financed again at any sensible level. Given indication of 5-6 m annual running costs, breakeven is not far-fetched. But first they need to become solvent! "investors" think Trovagene is worth 400x revenues on EV basis at earlier stage... and at 30 m/spend per year ... go figure. One thing to hope for is that Trovagene is not their signalled partner!!
Well not much:
U.S. patents: 3 issued; none pending; expirations ranging from 2018 to 2023
Can't see how the drug could be on the US market before 2020. Maybe they get the +5 yrs. But if only for 3-line, may noot be repeated if they try for 1 -line use.