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Apple Inc. Message Board

dachmeister4u 41 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 7, 2016 9:54 AM Member since: Dec 15, 2004
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  • dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jul 7, 2016 9:54 AM Flag

    The next two quarter reports should be significant for Skyworks, an impact that should last at least until 2018.
    Apple inventory issue and declining growth was a known headwind, highlighted in last quarter's conference call.

    Skyworks will provide a decent beat for Q3, stronger beat in Q4, andin that call, add clarity to the $8 story in a healthy FY 2017 forecast. At long last, DESPITE Apple losing share to Skywork's other customers, it will be apparent to analysts that Skyworks can sail without Apple dragging anchor. Second, analysts will no longer be allowed to their IoT segment as it approaches 35% of revenues. It ain't all about smartphones.

  • Reply to

    A lot of insider selling

    by yjacket81 Jul 6, 2016 9:50 PM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jul 7, 2016 9:21 AM Flag

    NEW ID since two days ago? Hope your posting experience will be worth your time.

  • Reply to

    Its crazy how low fslr is,

    by mikansdad Jun 28, 2016 4:50 AM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jul 5, 2016 6:18 PM Flag

    I own it in my Roth. Income generated, either as capital gain or dividend income are not taxable. Having said that, with a $19 Trillion deficit (and climbing), eventually the American taxpayer will arrive at a brick wall in the middle of the highway with a toll to be paid before moving along any further. All citizens will be asked to sacrifice. 240 years to get to $8 Trillion, less than ten years to get to $19 Trillion ... and that was without a world war at hand.

  • Reply to

    Its crazy how low fslr is,

    by mikansdad Jun 28, 2016 4:50 AM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jul 5, 2016 1:09 PM Flag

    I went with 8P3 ... taking a lower risk/return road. Figured that Sun and First will both have decent sales this year and next ... with 8P3 gripping one hand on their apron strings, a healthy dividend with the other. We shall see.

  • Reply to

    Mizuho Downgrade

    by razzledazzle5050 Jul 1, 2016 9:06 AM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jul 5, 2016 1:00 PM Flag

    AND yours is a key point, semi -- Analysts are looking at one tree and don't bother to estimate the forest, because they can't jump the great wall. Far easier to author on top of the fellow herded analysts who follow one player (Apple) thru two transparent assemblers.

    So, hows the numbers running on Skyworks in Huawei, IPPO, Samsung, Lenovo, Xiaomi, Vivo? How are those Chinese OEMs doing in India of late?

    Beyond competitor's smartphones ... beyond just power amplifiers in content ... any estimate on Skyworks' IoT segment that grew to 25% in the last Q. Nah ... check with IBD and see what their electonics analyst has to say -- that's about as safely far beyond as we go.

  • Reply to

    Trouble in Paradise

    by ralphemerson387 Jun 29, 2016 9:58 AM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jun 29, 2016 12:58 PM Flag

    Considering how long the pps has been "on fire sale" relative to it peers, this is short-term noise, Ralph. Apart from profit taking on the recent drop, Mr. Market is simply saying that HepC, as a curative solution, will end within five years as a whimper. with smaller populations ... in tandem with cut-price competition. The incredibly high PEG ratio of 10.5 (as a five year estimate), is saying that Gilead growth over the next five is .65%. (I'd like to see that 5 year analysis -- plowing through their pipeline, assigning dollar amounts and probabilities). I think it was Motley that said in 1Q15 that Gilead has the third best pipeline count in all of bio/pharma (Celgene and Amgen a tad better?). By the way, it was Carter who said that urban and ER projects to carefully screen for HepC are coming up with twice the population as expected by local officials ... that HepC rates have doubled over the past five years.

    For a long, Gilead is a very safe bet in stockholder equity growth for this year and next. We gain another potential $24 a share in earning's distributions (dividends and buybacks) through 2017. AND if they come through with one of their three bets on a successful NASH solution (all in phase II by year end) ... the five-year conservative view of growth is tossed out and, imo, Gilead will be the premier story stock to ride into the '20s. Obscure fact: Gilead has 8,000 employees. What an incredible, lean efficient cash machine!

  • dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jun 29, 2016 11:33 AM Flag

    Analyst is not right. Review of the balance sheet indicates nothing unusual there. The analyst apparently never took accounting. What is the analyst's name and firm?

  • Reply to

    Its crazy how low fslr is,

    by mikansdad Jun 28, 2016 4:50 AM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jun 29, 2016 8:11 AM Flag

    Thanks for taking the time to offer insight.

  • dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jun 28, 2016 2:01 PM Flag

    The moat around their HepC franchise just became impregnable. With CURE rates in the mid to high nineties, simple dosage scheme, pan-genomic coverage, and better-than-label safety ... this pretty much puts a stake into the heart of Merck and Abbvie schemes of grabbing market share by slashing price or by patent lawsuit schemes. With HepB (November) and large-market NASH solutions (?2017/18?) coming, Gilead is becoming the gold standard in liver diseases, much like Pfizer dominated antibiotics (penicillin and tetracycline) in the 40s/50s.

    It was the introduction of Abbvie's ViePak in late 2014 that struck the first blow to take Gilead out of the $110+ level (Giants Merck and Abbvie will push the king off the hill). I look for a positive earnings surprise for Q2 (the Merck accrual reversal, for a starter, then increased penetration into state-controlled HepC reimbursement programs). All the best.

  • Reply to

    Its crazy how low fslr is,

    by mikansdad Jun 28, 2016 4:50 AM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jun 28, 2016 11:29 AM Flag

    Newbie here, trying to evaluate FSLR, molling over the following questions:
    #1. What global solar manufacturer product has the highest efficiency for energy capture?
    #2. CEO talks 90% of growth in late 2016/2017 will come from international. Can FSLR compete on price/efficiency/service against low-cost Chinese manufacturers? Rising dollar may be the short thesis.
    #3. Yieldco 8P3 creates some confusion. SWAG: From a stockholder return estimate, better to be a FSLR stockholder over the next two years, or an 8P3 holder?
    Thanks.

  • Reply to

    Bought

    by jethro_tull_flute Jun 27, 2016 10:10 AM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jun 27, 2016 11:08 AM Flag

    The Dow dropped 27% in a single Monday in 1987. I called my siblings back then and told them to buy first thing Tuesday morning. Common return-on-investing sense comes to the foreground of sentiment pretty fast. British politics does not control the digital evolution, much less the Skyworks' run-rate to adjusted $8 in 12 to 16 months. I added as well.

  • Reply to

    GILD now at 6x earnings

    by jserper Jun 25, 2016 3:42 PM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jun 27, 2016 10:03 AM Flag

    More on point ... the surprise 12 cent miss in earnings ... and is now surprise-reversed by the judge. I don't disagree with Trader Professionals that tides going-out will lower all boats but if your are into marine design, Gilead on sale is compelling. Name a global public company with better ROA and op margin. Global liver and HIV care does not shut down over British sovereignty. The global HepB market opens for Gilead's in November. Gilead at 2014 prices: buy, hold, step back from the trading screen and rest easy. In the meantime for the near-term forecast ... lawsuits are prying open state care plans in pan-genome HepC ... and their recent HIV innovation will take back what share was lost. In summary, the thesis is intact -- premier fundamentals, blockbuster healthcare solutions at a massively oversold discount.

  • dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jun 21, 2016 9:30 AM Flag

    I like your balanced view ... thanks.

  • dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jun 17, 2016 8:44 AM Flag

    With your new board ID since last month ... tell me about the rationale of your deep respect for MA first ... before it was lost.

  • Reply to

    It's Brexit on top of everything

    by c.ddule Jun 16, 2016 10:22 AM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jun 17, 2016 8:30 AM Flag

    Apple encountering friction in China on patents, on-going drop in the yuan/dollar exchange, whether central banks are pushing on a string while highly-indebted governments are keeping austerity fiscal programs locked in the basement --- yep, plenty of blocks in place for the wall of worry.

  • Reply to

    buyout/merger imminent

    by mark_anthony123 Jun 14, 2016 8:50 AM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jun 14, 2016 3:05 PM Flag

    Dry and droll presenter ... you might be right. His frat buddy may have called for help -- we know nothing. He had a 189,000 share stake at hand. I assume he walked away from options, as well.

  • Reply to

    OPK to delist on NYSE and resist on NASDAQ

    by fukarwechief Jun 13, 2016 9:42 AM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jun 13, 2016 1:09 PM Flag

    Potentially puts them into the IBB sometime after launch into major results ... the globe's major player within ETFs for American biotech.

  • Reply to

    Cybersecurity

    by needhope2016 Jun 10, 2016 12:47 PM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jun 13, 2016 1:00 PM Flag

    Forecast for Q1 2015 was $71mil ... actual was $50mil ... and June-ending, 2015 quarter wasn't much better at $54mil.

    The fiasco occurred well after Ray harped about what a great hand he had been dealt. I'll bet that when the stock dropped from $18 to $7, he came within a whisker of getting canned. But the board, knowing the decade of lost credibility, likely optioned to do nothing -- knowing another CEO would take the pps down even deeper/longer. At this point, the forecasted adjusted eps is the support. Getting to a higher pps ($12 and up) will only come from solid beats-and-raises on sales/earnings and forecasts. He had finally zipped the bubbly talk. Either drive your market through compelling pricing and hand-holding service or be a real CEO and manage what the market is giving you ... take the headcount down another 200 to a Gaap profit.

  • dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jun 10, 2016 10:20 AM Flag

    Two-cent pump: The combination of superb efficacy and safety from VB 111 against pernicious recurrent glioblastoma, in tandem with two factors -- Fast Track Status from the FDA and "hungry" pharma looking for growth -- tells me that the pps will not stay single digit for very long. Common sense, as a starter -- Genetech's management (Roche's Avastin, listed as #7 in sales globally,) will take a serious look at VB111. This will get very interesting before the year ends.

  • Reply to

    WOW!!!! 68,000,000 shares short.

    by ajsuff Jun 9, 2016 5:27 PM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jun 9, 2016 8:45 PM Flag

    Thanks for the confident view, from a person with a solid handle -- iron ore strong. Arcelor provides a long term contract. My naivity is that Arcelor is far over-expanded, heavily in debt and pfft! ... there goes a key, North American, long-term stream of CLF revenue, displaced by Asian steel with non-CLF ore.

    OT Aside: tourist a mile down into Minnesota's Souder mine where the ore content was 67% (and higher) and you could weld rock-to-rock ... closed in 1956 to taconite mining process. Amazing history there.

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