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U.S. Concrete, Inc. Message Board

daninfw04 144 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 29, 2016 4:59 PM Member since: Mar 23, 2004
  • Reply to

    Reverse Auction #'s out

    by value_invstr Jun 29, 2016 1:51 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jun 29, 2016 4:59 PM Flag

    13 of us pretty much quit posting on the message boards and share information by e-mails. We have had great discussions lately especially today. Our group includes myself, mcbdan, mediatrader, martel, leekatz, infotraxx, gtnrules just to name a few. All the old crowd that's posted for years got tired of the whackos. Send me an e-mail if you ever decide to join. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    JV Announced

    by daninfw04 Jun 28, 2016 8:20 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jun 29, 2016 4:25 PM Flag

    Simply that they are finally doing what they should have started in Q1. Also, appears they have no intent to slow down revenues IMVHO. This JV alone could be $1 Billion in sales per release......DaninFw

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Jun 28, 2016 8:20 PM Flag

    HOV just got $120 million cash and $160 million off their books announced after market close from GTIS. It begins.

  • daninfw04 daninfw04 Jun 23, 2016 1:33 PM Flag

    They have said a few times that their biggest problem is working through the land they bought in the head fake in 2013. You have to think with their dramatic sales increases they are unloading a ton of it. KBH just reported 20.7% margins and doing just a little more in sales than HOV......what's wrong with that picture? I also agree they are putting themselves in that same boat with land deals now. But, I also think it's time they quit worrying about sales and make profits. Their recent sales increases have not lowered overall debt any that I can see. They go right back and invest a ton in future sales. They need to get all their expense lines in order. They need to get administrative to 10% or less and reduce overhead/staff. They need to get margins to at least 20% and hold the line. They would do better with $2 billion in sales at 20% then $3 billion at 16%. They are losing money at 16% and would make money at 20%. They need to price a house at 20-22% margin and if it takes an extra month or two to sell no big deal. In fact, all the houses I see them building are pre-sold which means they need to hold their prices and sell fewer homes if that's what it takes. I remember in the early 90's I ran 35 auto parts stores and Freon was an 8% margin item while everything else was well north of 45%. Well, we gave the stores 14% for payroll. I had managers selling $10,000 in Freon and making $800 in gross margin so I would give them $1400 in payroll. I can tell you that didn't last long. I started backing out Freon when assigning payroll dollars. Somebody needs to take ownership and make the tough decisions at HOV. It's on automatic and out of control. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 daninfw04 Jun 21, 2016 12:14 PM Flag

    No question Ara is the problem. LEN showed sector is starting to have pricing power. KBH reports after close today. One thing that hit me today was a statement that there is a shortage of lots available. Why the hell is there a margin problem if there is a shortage of lots. All HOV has to do is raise the price of their houses 4% or a $400,000 house to $416,000 assuming they can't reduce expenses as they are idiots and they go to 20% margin and they earn $1 a share and stock goes to $10+..........the good news is #2 builder is raising prices and they are sticking. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Lmao -- one guy talking to himself

    by fenda66benda Jun 13, 2016 11:53 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jun 14, 2016 1:47 PM Flag

    As you know I don't post much anymore as we have our group of 12 long time posters mainly from broadcast message boards but several of the 12 own HOV and we have been really sharing a lot of information lately. I just post about 5-10% of what I used to mainly because of the lunatics posting on these boards now. Friday morning before open the report for building permits and housing starts and completions comes out. Should have a great impact on this sector Friday. Place your bets. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Lmao -- one guy talking to himself

    by fenda66benda Jun 13, 2016 11:53 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jun 13, 2016 5:26 PM Flag

    My position is also irrelevant to you in that case. However, the profile for a spammer, con artist, pump and dumper, dump and pump or bash and buyer describes you perfectly...........someone that appears that has never posted before acting like they are an expert on the stock and always attacking those that have posted for years. Give it up con artist. BTW, this is my last response as you will be gone in a day or so after you accomplish whatever it is you are truly doing. Seen it more times than I can count. I was posting on this stock the last time it dipped below a dollar and was almost a ten bagger. I know you aren't too bright but you did do the math right? 700,000 times $1.70= $1.19 million......that sounds a lot more than a buck and a half. I will make a million or so before it's over. Watch and learn con man. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Lmao -- one guy talking to himself

    by fenda66benda Jun 13, 2016 11:53 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jun 13, 2016 12:55 PM Flag

    So you are either wasting your time or short the stock. A no-brainer. Again, you don't take the time to read, I am far from an Ara fan. He needs to go. What is your real ID not the alias you just starting posting on today and will change again tomorrow? DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Lmao -- one guy talking to himself

    by fenda66benda Jun 13, 2016 11:53 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jun 13, 2016 12:12 PM Flag

    Not only that but you are the one creating aliases. This is the first time you have ever posted. LMAO. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Lmao -- one guy talking to himself

    by fenda66benda Jun 13, 2016 11:53 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jun 13, 2016 12:11 PM Flag

    You are really an idiot. Learn to read. Homeseek and I almost always have the opposite views. Check my id out. I have posted over 20 years. What an idiot. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Thoughts

    by daninfw04 Jun 12, 2016 9:04 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jun 12, 2016 9:09 AM Flag

    I would add they have been at 20% margins before. The CFO stated they are well over 20% in several markets already. As they continue to work through that 2013 land their margins will continue to improve. With their revenue growth that has to make it much faster to get there. I said before that I believe they had already made commitments for the next 3-6 months they had to fulfill. I suspect the $187 million land spend was already committed. If these guys can hit their much lowered guidance and come in with 15 cents EPS when analysts are expecting just 1-3 cents this stock will pop. I still see a $1.60-$1.90 range next few months but the smart money may actually start accumulating and we may all be surprised sooner. I have waited too long and plan to hold. It's a much longer time horizon than I first thought but not many stocks offer the opportunity to double or triple in this market. Another 6-18 months before that happens IMVHO. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Jun 12, 2016 9:04 AM Flag

    I was about ready to dump about 2/3 of my 700,000 share position but have been amazed at how strong HOV has actually held up. Lots of contradictions here. The analysts have done it again. They lowered Q3 from 8 to 6 cents and Q4 from 15 to 12 cents. But, raised revenue expect from $712 million to $732 million. They can't add either. They lowered FY from 16 to 3 cents and FY 17 from 25 to 20 cents. HOV lost 11 cents in Q1 and 6 cents in Q2. Add the four quarters together and you should get 1 cent for FY 16 not 3 cents. Now, HOV management lowered pre-tax from $40 to 100 million to just $25-50 million. No question we can't trust management but after tax would be at least $15-30 million which would be about 15-30 cents EPS. That my friends is a lot of difference. Ara is incompetent for sure but that's a big difference. The last presentation is what really changed my mind. The stock tanked with the overall market Friday after the presentation the day before after the market closed. In the presentation, the CFO said they spent $187 million which we already knew on land development in Q2 which was the most in a single quarter in years. Everyone expected them to cut back not spend more. When asked about the future, the CFO said they could easily spend zero in a quarter if necessary to make debt payments. That got my attention. The contradiction again is management did exactly the opposite of what the market expected. They say they are cutting back growth but the evidence isn't there. Also, they updated their cash on hand slide to show another $75 million they got just days after Q2 was reported. Think about it. They could easily have reported $262 million more cash on hand or less debt if they had wanted. The other kicker was they explained that they expected margins to go from 16 to 20% in time. They are still working out low margin land they overpaid for in the head fake in 2013. That alone would add $100 million+ per year in EPS. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This article shows what a nice guy Ara really is:

    "A home-building mogul has now ticked off both his West Village neighbors with the renovation of his town house.

    Ara Hovnanian and his wife, Rachel, snagged the West Fourth Street home from actor Anthony LaPaglia for $7 million in 2012, and were quickly sued by next-door neighbor Daniel Kramer, who claims Hovnanian’s construction shifted Kramer’s foundation, shattered windows, and cracked walls and ceilings in his landmark abode.

    Now the neighbors on the other side of Hovnanian’s town house, former state Sen. and US Attorney Whitney Seymour Jr. and his wife, Catryna, are also suing Hovnanian over the construction.

    The Seymours are seeking $2.5 million in damages. The lawsuit between Kramer and the Hovnanians, in which Kramer is seeking $3 million, is ongoing. A lawyer for Hovnanian did not return a call."

  • Reply to

    My solution for HOV

    by cash.mccall Jun 3, 2016 10:38 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jun 3, 2016 5:23 PM Flag

    You' re a smart guy but you need to learn how to read a balance sheet. The write offs were incurred in Q1 not this quarter. Secondly, you have been posting this garbage about no liquidity for some time now probably a year or more. . Companies with good credit ratings have no problem accessing debt or loans. Thirdly, how the hell could HOV have a 40% sales increase if people couldn't get mortgages? Please send your garbage to the BOD's. Moving assets to REIT's is nuts. They probably need a good laugh before their fire Ara.......that's the problem. Sorry to be a little nasty but no call to be condescending to me. You asked for it. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    My solution for HOV

    by cash.mccall Jun 3, 2016 10:38 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jun 3, 2016 2:47 PM Flag

    Land spending has nothing to do with profitability till they sell it. Actually, it would have been only more cash on hand which surprised analysts. In Q1 they said they were focused on delevering and once again they did the opposite. I am sure this was already committed which is why they need to do a forecast presentation showing their plan and goal per quarter. Ada has zero credibility. Daninfw

  • Reply to

    Where do we go from here?

    by tronolonemichael Jun 2, 2016 12:49 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jun 3, 2016 8:31 AM Flag

    Oldtex---good play. I might should have done the same but I still think $1.60-$1.90+/- will be range for awhile. I may start to trade in a few days. Did not get an e-mail from you. No problem but hope I didn't miss it. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Where do we go from here?

    by tronolonemichael Jun 2, 2016 12:49 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jun 2, 2016 2:09 PM Flag

    You are right in that regard. They are smart enough to rip off the shareholders. I suspect Ara spends more time on the golf course then running the business. HOV is management's personal ATM machine. I would add in regard to not being that easy........I was hired to fix several broken companies. First thing I always did was to meet with the vast majority of employees for 15-30 minutes to ask them what needed to be done. They told me and I did it if the vast majority all said the same thing. Employees used to think I was crazy for demanding that all repairs get at least three bids. They were amazed when the differences showed up. I could toot my own horn but I am of average intelligence but I know how to make money. These guys don't except for themselves. Time for BOD's to solve the problem. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Where do we go from here?

    by tronolonemichael Jun 2, 2016 12:49 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jun 2, 2016 1:39 PM Flag

    I would add that if they can't figure out how to manage they can simply raise prices 1-2 percent and get the same benefit. You can't tell me a house that sales for $550,000 can't get $555,500 instead for a 1% boost or a house that sells for $250,000 can't get $252,500.......they are building houses and can't figure out how to make money. Houses in my area are going for 13% more each year for last 3 years and they have 6 additions near me and they can't get 1-2%? Insane. I have been wrong about these idiots because I know my 11 year old grand daughter could manage better than this. If she didn't want to, my 9 year grandson would be glad to show them. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Where do we go from here?

    by tronolonemichael Jun 2, 2016 12:49 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jun 2, 2016 1:33 PM Flag

    Revenues not that much different from expect. The killer is dropping income by half. Biggest hope is to see Ara pushed aside and get someone that knows how to manage. I come from a background where we were expected to cut expenses by 5%+ every single year from previous year. All they had to do was cut expenses 1-2% and they would have made and beat their numbers. Do you know how easy it is to cut expenses by 1-2%? Just rebid all your services and supplies each year, get rid of secretaries, etc. Can you imagine how much money they should be saving with sales up 40%? Suppliers should be standing in line to give them discounts. A bunch of arrogant, incompetent management at HOV. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    It is over

    by rossipetraglia Jun 2, 2016 9:26 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jun 2, 2016 10:31 AM Flag

    With Ara it is always next quarter. How can sales be up 40% and you lose money? I believe HOV will ramble between $1.60-$1.90 till next report now with quick dips above and below. It is a trading stock. However, bad news is sometimes good news. This is when the big investors want action. Ara may be axed or company put up for sale. The big money appears to be getting tired of same poor performance. Ara had excuses when the sector was struggling. Now everyone is showing improvement but HOV. DaninFW

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