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U.S. Concrete, Inc. Message Board

daninfw04 56 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 29, 2016 4:59 PM Member since: Mar 23, 2004
  • Reply to

    Yesterday"s Presentation

    by daninfw04 May 18, 2016 11:01 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 18, 2016 12:25 PM Flag

    I sure hope we see $2+. It might well get there but IMVHO they will have to do all 3 things:
    1) BEAT EPS expect
    2) BEAT Revenue expect
    3) Show some progress on debt or reveal a plan that is credible.
    I don't think $3+ is a dream. But, many investors are getting tired of their weak past efforts. There was a net loss of about 3.5 million shares on institutional investors with the top three holders all reducing shares for about 3 million shares. It's time to put up. If they don't hit all three numbers, Ara needs to go. That's the only other thing that could catapult this stock. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Yesterday"s Presentation

    by daninfw04 May 18, 2016 11:01 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 18, 2016 12:21 PM Flag

    The $25 million was from their SEC filing for their last 10Q where they showed the value of the land before write down and then how much write down. The difference was about $25 million. The actual sell was about 2-3 weeks later. As for HOVNP I researched a year or so back and felt HOV was the way to go. You can google several articles where the HOVNP initial buyers got screwed. The fine print does not require HOV to pay dividends. As long as they don't pay on common stock they don't have to pay any on the HOVNP. The only way IMVHO it might be worth $25 again is if there was a buyout and not 100% certain on that. GLTA DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The presentation yesterday was much more informative than the one a few days before. Some bullets:
    1) Ara said he looked forward to update investors on their progress in a few weeks.
    2) Ara said hard part was behind them and he felt they would easily and comfortably meet their debt repayments.
    3) They paid off the 5-15-16 bonds on Monday.
    4) Only about $200 million left to pay in next two years and very little due after that till 2020.
    5) Expects to get debt ratio down to 50% within a few years and down to 30% within a few more years.
    6) Expect to reverse NOL's in 2016 or 2017 at the latest. May do in two parts but hope to do in one if earnings are substantive.
    7) Future land banking will be different. They plan to find locations and then go to land bankers to let them buy the land and then they will take out options. No debt incurred on balance sheet.
    8) More and more land bankers are coming to the party. Plenty of opportunity.
    9) Are using more of the non-recourse loans as well which are better rates.
    This company is not going bankrupt. It may be 12-24 months before we see the numbers we would like to see but no doubt in my mind this will be a $3-5 stock in 12-24 months. And yes, about a year later than I first thought. GLTA DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 May 16, 2016 1:38 PM Flag

    Tomorrow might be a little more interesting than last presentation. There was an article where DR Horton and Lennar bought the 158 lots from HOV just weeks after HOV announced they were pulling out. That was only about $25 million but still cash. Also, no question now they retired the 5-15-16 bonds due yesterday. Housing starts and new permits for April in the morning an hour before market opens........Big Day coming. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Ladaclay

    by daninfw04 May 10, 2016 7:59 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 11, 2016 11:39 AM Flag

    I only post a little now days as 12-13 of us have pretty much formed an e-mail group where we communicate daily. You would recognize most of them from the EVC, GTN, SBGI, etc. broadcast boards. We got tired of all the whackos and Yahoo. We are able to e-mail and post things Yahoo will not allow. I only allow those I know that have posted a year or more. If interested give me an e-mail address and I will send you mine and what it takes to join the group. You can delete your e-mail after I respond. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Ladaclay

    by daninfw04 May 10, 2016 7:59 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 11, 2016 8:40 AM Flag

    Thanks. Pretty much my thoughts. I have never been an Ara fan but also feel he will do what it takes to enrich himself. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 May 10, 2016 7:59 PM Flag

    You recently posted that you had bought HOV. You have been a bear on HOV for around 8years+/-. Why the change? You and I have often disagreed but I know you have great insight into this sector having been an executive in it. Thoughts? DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Technically speaking not good

    by homeseek May 10, 2016 4:31 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 10, 2016 5:10 PM Flag

    Actually, your comments are unfounded. HOV as had a great run the last two days going from $1,57 to $1.72 for a high today. That's 10% in two days. I was watching most of the day till a little after noon and volume was very low. I checked back right before the presentation and over two million shares traded in about an hour. We had a big seller or shorter taking advantage. The stock actually traded just 100,000-200,000 shares during and after the presentation. After hitting $1.62 we quickly moved to $1.65. As for the call, just a lot of promises with little or no new information. I was disappointed which is why it probably didn't pop. CEO mentioned they still had over $500 million available from land banking, they were now using more non recourse loans at 4-6% interest instead of land banking since it was less expensive. He said he wanted to get book value positive and hinted that high yield markets may open up again soon. He added that they were very pleased with the two property sales mentioned last call but could not add anything since there had been no public press releases. The analysts tried to get more info on cash being raised but he stonewalled. HOV is either concerned with future lawsuits if it appeared they were trying to prop the stock or it may be option time where they want to lock in a bunch more free stock at a super low price. I have seen that before. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 May 7, 2016 9:07 AM Flag

    The CEO in the conference call stated that EVC had earnings of 3 cents a share when it was 2 cents. He gave the figure before diluted shares. Diluted shares per accounting guidelines have to be included. It is options and restricted stock that has been granted and will be issued in the future. If the company goes private or gets bought out they get exercisable on the day the company ceases to be public and hence issued. Investors don't tolerate CEO's that don't state facts.
    Secondly, he had the audacity to explain all time high operating expenses on increases in staff to build up local news where he said they were losing ground. Here's a quote from a December 2015 article where Entravision is cutting back on local news staff. This payroll and severance costs would have been paid last quarter and expenses should have been down not up. Oh yea, let's not forget the CEO's salary in 2015 went from $1.5 million to almost $3 million.........just a 98% pay increase:
    "Entravision continues its downsizing of news operations. It has now canceled the morning newscasts in all of its stations across the country, laying off most of the talent. Buenos Días DC, Despierta San Diego, Despierta El Paso and Alegre Despertar in McAllen are among the morning shows affected. Staffers were notified yesterday via phone of the cancellations and that they lost their jobs after the morning shows. Sources tell Media Moves that among those who lost their jobs are D.C.’s weather anchor Nestor Bravo and sports anchor Daniel Diaz, as well as anchors Victor Acosta and Brenda Reyes in El Paso. Several technical crew members were also laid off at the stations." DaninFW

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 May 5, 2016 5:41 PM Flag

    CEO said he expected digital and mobile to be 10% of revenues in 2016 and 20% in 2017 with organic and acquisition growth. That means they will have to buy a company at double the size of Pulpo to do that which means $40 million+ in cash. Looks like they are already spending your spectrum money. Overpaying again. For those of you not around years ago.......current management overpaid by over $200 million for their current radio assets. Why would we trust them with the spectrum money? Real concerns. DaninFW

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 May 5, 2016 5:31 PM Flag

    The Noble Analyst just asked on call why operating expenses are the highest he's ever seen. He said they were almost 70% versus 58% in 2012 which previously were the highest. CEO said they are spending on local news because of competition. Funny how in the release he said it was because of higher salaries and free stock for incompetent management.........I expect to see EVC down at least 50 cents tomorrow. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Poor Management

    by daninfw04 May 5, 2016 5:00 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 5, 2016 5:19 PM Flag

    I have to add that I expressed months ago that EVC would probably pay a fortune to their two top radio personalities to keep them. I was right. Radio revenues for Q1 were up just $539,000 yet radio expenses were up $1,117,000..........
    Digital revenues were $4,664,000 with expenses of $4,530,000 for a profit of $134,000. On an annualized basis that's barely a half million profit for a $20 million investment. That's about 2.5% return on their investment. We also must not forget that they were already getting millions in digital and mobile before they bought Pulpo which they rolled into Pulpo to hide their bad purchase decision. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    DaninFW?

    by tronolonemichael May 4, 2016 7:13 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 5, 2016 5:07 PM Flag

    I would add that the investor presentation Tuesday may be enlightening. It is only 5 days before 5-15-16 bonds must be redeemed. You don't do a presentation 5 days before debt redemption if you can't do it. We might get a press release before the presentation as to any cash raised or it could be announced then. Can't wait. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 May 5, 2016 5:00 PM Flag

    I could not believe this one even though I expected it. I finished selling my last 13,000 EVC shares at $8.12-$8.13 today. Sold all 50,857 shares at $7.96-$8.13 last few days I bought at average of $7.08-$7.09. Booked $46K profit anticipating a bad report and intend to buy on any plunge again. Looks like could happen tomorrow.......
    How do you keep your job when you are the incompetent CEO? You own super voting stock that gives you total control. Otherwise, you would have been fired long before now. Fixing to listen to the fun call. But, get these few numbers. Total revenues were down 2% yet operating expenses were up 5% and corporate expenses up 12%.........Digital media revenues up 26% yet expenses up 35%. Radio revenues were up 3% yet radio expenses up 8%. See the picture? And Pulpo marginally profitable. Would have been a few million ahead if they had taken the $20 million they paid and reduces debt they are now paying over 5% on........I love this stock. Eternal optimists push it up and the worst management in sector proves them wrong time and time again. This is a $4-5 stock without spectrum. $8 is really pushing it as they need at least $400 million from spectrum auction to justify that price. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    DaninFW?

    by tronolonemichael May 4, 2016 7:13 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 5, 2016 11:37 AM Flag

    I am obviously concerned for how new plan is going to work. I thought the old plan would work if management had made the tough decisions which they did not. The money lenders obviously thought the same. They could have grown themselves out of the debt problem with strong earnings, pushed up the stock price, issued shares at $8-10 a share in a few years, etc. The money guys and land bankers IMVHO are now concerned. The bankers like having extra assets above the loan value. There has to be talk behind the scenes and land bankers don't want to loan to a company that may not get refinancing. There needs to be a change at the top very quickly.
    Now, if the current team can show they can reduce debt at least $300-500 million in next 12 months and get company profitable we have a new ball game. I think they have too many communities without enough talent to manage them. I could go on and on but the next two quarters will make or break HOV IMVHO. I don't see the $5-6 now in next 6-12 months. I do think we could easily get to $4-5 in 12-18 months but it's going to take what I said they need to do to get there. I am optimistic because I think the bankers are firmly in control now. Ara must deliver or he will be gone. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    DaninFW?

    by tronolonemichael May 4, 2016 7:13 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 5, 2016 8:54 AM Flag

    Still holding and not trading lately. Frustrated like many of you. Management needs to come out with some numbers as to how much debt they can reduce next 2-3 quarters to show they have a plan. They also need to cut expenses to the bone. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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