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ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES (Bermuda) LTD. Message Board

davegras 19 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 15, 2016 6:34 AM Member since: May 22, 2003
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  • Reply to

    8150

    by yksrivss Aug 14, 2016 10:20 PM
    davegras davegras Aug 15, 2016 6:34 AM Flag

    IMOS is at a ~10% discount to 8150 but if you factor in taxes on the cash portion (i.e. use an after-tax amount) then that discount is closer to 6%. Plus, there is the risk of buying IMOS when 8150 could decline further so I suspect a small discount will continue until conversion at the end of October.

    Wow, all that good news from the cc and 8150 trades at tw30.50. Imagine that. I don't think even a personal plea from the president of Taiwan will get SJ to initiate a buyback prior to conversion. How many times have I noted that he likes to do things one at a time? Of course we have that large dividend to look forward to. What happens to the stock price the next day after a sizeable dividend is paid out? Hmm. I forget...

    Reading the latest cc transcript is like being in a time warp going back 3-4 years. So much good news. So much happy talk. It really is nice to hear how SJ continues to be on the same page as the suffering long-term investors. In the meantime, like an idiot I've been selling calls, waiting for this toad to turn into a handsome prince. Case in point, my Aug. 20s are in danger of expiring worthless for the luckless holder forcing me to repeat this same ol' cycle come next week. What a grind. But, alas, I'm a hopeful romantic and by October this perennial pumpkin should finally whisk away my remaining holdings at the $20 mark. From there I've heard everyone's interests will be aligned. With SJ at the helm that can only mean good news.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    When will they release the merger decision?

    by kapy15 Aug 11, 2016 9:05 PM
    davegras davegras Aug 12, 2016 7:28 AM Flag

    Yep. It's done. Stock trading above $20 pre-market. The last time it closed above $20 was late last year.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Off topic: EXAS

    by davegras Jul 26, 2016 11:14 AM
    davegras davegras Aug 12, 2016 12:04 AM Flag

    Bernie, I agree with you that a yes vote is the better alternative in the short run. However, I can understand why some longs would vote against it. In my view it isn't a vote against the merger in the long run but a vote against management and the board which just might result in a change of leadership. In other words, continue with the same people who burned us for years or take a chance that a no vote might lead to a change in leadership first, then the merger. If Tsinghua is approved then this is the last chance IMOS shareholders have a majority and I think it would be even more difficult to replace the board after that. If I felt confident that a no vote would start a chain of events that would result in leadership changes within, say, the next six months I would have done so. But it's a risky bet even though its possible SJ at the helm will result in continued disappointment post-merger (I'd like to see him gone regardless). That said, I have empathy for those shareholders who want to "destroy this village in order to save it", so to speak.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Vote

    by jaretwilson Jul 28, 2016 4:25 PM
    davegras davegras Jul 30, 2016 7:56 AM Flag

    Well, IR said normally management aren't voted on since they are employees, only directors. I should've known that. I imagine the directors are all cronies so pressuring them won't do much unless Baupost and other big players chime in. As many have said before, why hasn't Baupost done anything? I know it's less than 2% of their overall holdings but they could've made a big difference given their position. Still can. Well, hedge funds aren't gods, just people. Who knows what they're thinking.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Vote

    by jaretwilson Jul 28, 2016 4:25 PM
    davegras davegras Jul 30, 2016 3:46 AM Flag

    Bernie, yes I think you would. However, I suspect several wouldn't which I think is a bit hypocritical. That's what happens when you get too close to a company you should objectively analyze. For some, even though we've been screwed for four years, the possibility that the screwing will stop post-merger makes it ok, I guess. Yes, I'm sure SJ will start wearing his shareholder-friendly pants and the stock will climb into the 30s, something that could have already occurred if we had a CEO who actually cared about IMOS shareholders.

    I emailed IR asking them why the senior managers were not included in the proxy.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Vote

    by jaretwilson Jul 28, 2016 4:25 PM
    davegras davegras Jul 29, 2016 2:15 AM Flag

    Roy, I did the same thing. It's either die in the desert or ride along with the corrupt CEO until it's over. That said, the same people on this MB who are imploring others to vote in favor should also be willing to either push or vote out anyone at ChipMos who's had a hand in screwing us over. That too is the most logical, unemotional decision. Will it happen? Doubtful.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Off topic: EXAS

    by davegras Jul 26, 2016 11:14 AM
    davegras davegras Jul 27, 2016 12:12 AM Flag

    Jay, that's interesting. You know, I thought it was SOP to put the names of the CEO et al on the proxy annually. Makes me wonder when we can vote on management.

    Btw, I wrote SK in my previous post but of course met SJ.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Off topic: EXAS

    by davegras Jul 26, 2016 11:14 AM
    davegras davegras Jul 26, 2016 7:00 PM Flag

    Lol. Actually, "stock god" is a term my friend and I refer to as the mythical god in charge of stocks. :-)

    Yeah, nothing has been on schedule with Chipster. I assume after the August vote they will immediately seek regulatory approval but I'm skeptical that will be forthcoming followed by a completed merger all in 90 days. If SK says things will be completed by 9/30, for example, it is always a good idea to add 2-4 months.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • davegras by davegras Jul 26, 2016 11:14 AM Flag

    Congrats Sean. I just noticed the move higher on my stock screens. This may very well close above IMOS' stock price in short order, as you predicted.

    Speaking of, I have two questions for the stock god. Will the merger occur this year and will IMOS close above $20 sometime in 2016. (I know management assures us the former will occur this year but....)

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    proxies

    by generator77 Jul 8, 2016 9:49 AM
    davegras davegras Jul 14, 2016 8:43 AM Flag

    Arrrgh. I just got the proxy and voting for/against management is not part of the proposals. :-(

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Glad to be all out

    by madeinclay Jul 5, 2016 11:04 PM
    davegras davegras Jul 11, 2016 4:48 PM Flag

    Writing covered calls on this stock over the past two years has been the biggest windfall I've experienced in my lifetime. Even if the stock gets called away there's always been opportunities to buy it cheaper and sell options again. There are four days left before July expiration and if IMOS closes above the $17.50 strike, some of my stock will be called away. If it falls below $17.50 again, something it seems to always do, I'll buy it back and sell options on it again. I'll make the premium plus the capital gain between the buy price and strike price (if it gets called away). In 2014, I made about $5 selling calls options. Then I waited for the price to fall below $20 and $17.50 and bought more stock and continued selling options on my holdings. I bought more stock when it dipped below $15 earlier this year and sold options at the $17.50 strike. I've made about $3 this year so far not including any capital gains. All told, the money I've made over the past two years buying IMOS below certain strike prices and selling call options on it is tantamount to selling IMOS in the low to mid 30s, about double the current quote. I've held IMOS in my IRA so no tax issues but I also have some in my brokerage account. Selling call options is a more conservative strategy than buy-and-hold and I usually don't use this strategy on most of my stocks. There have been times when I've sold call options on ABC stock and made a 20% return in six months only to see the stock jump 30% during the seventh month. That's annoying. But with IMOS, somehow it has turned out to be a wet dream. I continue to sell options on the 17.5 and 20 strikes going out 1-2 months. When the stock hit $19 last month I thought it was finally the end of selling options at the 17.5 strike (I won't chase the stock price) but here we are again with the stock hovering around $17.50. I want IMOS to go up and I want my stock to be called away but SJ has kept that from happening.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    proxies

    by generator77 Jul 8, 2016 9:49 AM
    davegras davegras Jul 9, 2016 9:46 PM Flag

    John, the latest press release was farcical. There is almost no visibility in this industry so it doesn't surprise me their revenue projections overshot reality. Again. But to say that things will improve nicely in six months, well, I say...how do they know that? Answer: They don't. As for 2016 it looks like sales won't even reach $600m which I think is the lowest in maybe five years. Wasn't this supposed to be a billion dollar company by next year or so? Lol. I'm not hopeful about Tsinghua either and I plan to vote against the BoD etc. There should be a super-duper NO box next to SJ's name for me to check.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Glad to be all out

    by madeinclay Jul 5, 2016 11:04 PM
    davegras davegras Jul 6, 2016 12:20 PM Flag

    Hey Turt, wow another long-termer selling out most of their holdings. It's kind of like breaking up with a significant other who didn't treat you that well....there's some sadness but also relief. I hope you're correct about oil stocks. I bought some of the usual suspects including XOM, COP and BP. Should've gotten more aggressive. Missed the huge rebound in natgas stocks. Recently bought P and also some VLO today at ~$47.50 knowing that I might be early to any turnaround in refining. As for IMOS, I'm not sure how it will play out but would welcome being out again at $20 with what I have now.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    sellers

    by generator77 Jun 22, 2016 12:07 PM
    davegras davegras Jun 24, 2016 1:46 PM Flag

    Off topic. Bought some GILD and PSX this morning. New purchases. Half position. WFC and ABT are on my watch list but waiting for cheaper prices. As a value investor not much interests me even after the sell-off.

    Sean, clearly you've done a lot of research on Exas and it could pay off handsomely given time. For me, however, it's beyond my risk tolerance. I wish you luck with it though.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    sellers

    by generator77 Jun 22, 2016 12:07 PM
    davegras davegras Jun 24, 2016 1:34 PM Flag

    John, I sold some for 0.30 too on the 20th. 0.50 is a good price. Maybe they get called away but...maybe not. I've been selling calls with a 20 strike for months and months and keep rolling them over. The July contracts are likely to expire worthless. If investors panic even more maybe my 17.5s will too! Unlikely, of course, but IMOS has had this odd propensity of quickly dipping, recovering, rinse and repeat. SJ is a master at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory so while the 8/12 meeting should be, at worst, constructive, one never knows. But I wouldn't mind if the Aug.20s are assigned. Btw, the open interest for the next few months seems to be perking up on both sides.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Put up or shut up

    by sean777007 Jun 18, 2016 5:44 PM
    davegras davegras Jun 23, 2016 10:49 AM Flag

    berniemall: You may be right about the upside and we agree the downside is limited. It's hard to imagine SJ being even more shareholder unfriendly after the conversion. :-\ I think ChipMos has good potential but am wary that SJ will take steps to maximize that potential. That said, I can see the stock rising to around the $23 area due to the conversion and moderately favorable landscape. My strategy has been to buy stock in the mid- to high teens and sell calls on a couple of strikes going out one and two months. I expect whatever holdings I have left to be called at $20 prior to the conversion. Actually, I'm sort of hoping for that as I would like to see how the conversion plays out. If the planets align, ChipMos can reap the benefits of a recovering industry and more shareholder friendly action. I'd like to see that. Too many long-term sufferers on this board. For me I don't have enough faith to get into it heavily again because of the string of disappointments since 2011. I look at IMOS selling at around a 20% discount to 8150 with the conversion just a few months away and wonder what the catch is. I don't see one and the annualized return looks enticing. But I still wonder if another shoe will drop. Hopefully not.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Put up or shut up

    by sean777007 Jun 18, 2016 5:44 PM
    davegras davegras Jun 20, 2016 1:30 PM Flag

    berniemall, I agree with you that the conversion gets done and IMOS is a buy now because it sells at a ~20% discount to 8150. I also agree that downside is limited. Where we differ is your belief that underlying fundamentals are strong. I think investors have been hearing that for at least, let's see, 1, 2, 3....4 years. Since 2011 revenue has been between $600m-$700m, almost always well short of expectations. And this year they probably won't break $700m again which has been the goal for some time. I significantly increased my holdings in IMOS in 2011 because the stock looked too cheap, particular on a P/FCF basis. However, I also thought management would be shareholder friendly and that would carry IMOS into the 30s. We all discovered they're not, at least not to IMOS shareholders. You mentioned the boys are happy to talk with you but don't care what you say. If true, that just further underscores why this company has become a much less attractive investment. Generally speaking I would not invest in an company whose management is unfriendly to shareholders. Generally speaking I would not invest in a low-margined, higher-risk industry like the OSAT business. But this is a special situation. If the stock breaks $20, I'll be out. Again. I own only 1/4 of what I did two years ago. I just changed my l/t sentiment to HOLD because I'm buying and selling calls against my position. From my pov, what long-term holders are hoping for is a nice, juicy up cycle, something we haven't seen in years. Or perhaps some are pinning their hopes on the consolidation wave. Or maybe management has given IMOS shareholders the middle finger but they're planning to unlock value post-merger. I recognize that at least the dividend yield will be nice. In a way, I can see why some like yourself want to keep holding despite management failings. But unless the boys begin thinking about shareholders you're always going to be short-changed.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Question/Advice from long-timers

    by johnboywalton56 Jun 15, 2016 4:53 PM
    davegras davegras Jun 18, 2016 2:51 AM Flag

    I don't know why Caff hasn't spoken to management in two years but I do know why I haven't. I went openly critical of them. Now I don't even get an e -Xmas card anymore (no joke). I used to contact SK fairly regularly by email or phone and I'm grateful to him for taking the time to answer my questions and hear my complaints. He offered me the chance to participant in the 8150 secondary too (I just had to fill out a form with my broker) but I was already up to the gills in IMOS. Oh, well. However, as Sean once put it, SK is to SJ like Ed McMahon is to Johnny Carson. SJ runs the show. And the show has been terrible. I don't buy into the idea that these guys are terrible at capital allocation and so forth. Rather, I think SJ is a self-serving CEO. Regardless, investors do not have faith he will do them right. If there was tangible proof he had our best interests at heart, the stock would be trading at higher multiples. The conversion formula didn't surprise me because it was never intended to be a windfall for IMOS shareholders. What was supposed to boost IMOS was having 8150 listed on the TSE. No one expected we'd get hosed by the small IPO and the large secondary (the latter in terms of price and amount of IMOS sold). Four years ago no one expected management to do only a few, small buybacks and initiate a paltry dividend that would never be raised prior to conversion. Occasionally IMOS shareholders would grumble a little louder and management would respond with a small bone. Yet, they dragged their feet on the entire conversion process. And the stock still sells at a significant discount to 8150. At minimum SJ should be gone. It shouldn't matter whether the conversion finally happens and the stock finally gets over $20 again. He's not good for shareholders. Is there one person on this board who disagrees?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    May Revenues

    by johnboywalton56 Jun 8, 2016 6:47 AM
    davegras davegras Jun 10, 2016 4:31 PM Flag

    Bot some at $17.40 but could've gotten a better price if I waited a tad longer. Did sell calls on the stock I bot for an avg. price of $0.62. I want to take a moment to thank SJ et al. for making it possible for me to continue squeezing blood from this rotting turnip. The lack of clear communication, the news vacuum, the delays, the lack of visibility...I've counted on them all over the past two years. To slightly paraphrase George C. Scott in Patton: SJ, you magnificent b*stard, I've read your book! I dare say, the only question I have left is whether Chippy will close above $20 sometime between now and the end of the year. In the meantime, I'll just keep collecting my monthly dividend assuming of course those paragons of value destruction don't find an even more sinister way to crush the return potential of this once promising equity.

    A pleasant weekend to you all.

    Sentiment: Buy

IMOS
19.62+0.03(+0.15%)1:41 PMEDT