high in SPX to sucker weak hands in, it is just to soon for a sustained breakout.
While I sold most of my put on the break of the 20dma yesterday, wish I had sold all.
But today's bounce gave me a chance to get back in to same positions!
Rally in materials does not change fundamentals for CAT in a day.
I bought puts back with stock at 76.42, but I can see case for CAT to test 78 to 80 range on mkt rebound.
Once again, if I get better prices, I will buy more puts.
Must see sales report and inferences from China.
CAT may also be moving on the hope of infrastructure spending regardless of election outcome.
Those who have the power to move the stock to overbought and get suckers to buy the top.
Obvious from the huge move that day that was used to scare the weak shorts and make the fence sitters fall into the trap.
Talk of bottom being put in and targets of 85 and higher were rampant and sealed the deal.
Now these come latelies will hold on to their 'wise' investment and finally bail at the next bottom.
A bottom that will be marked by a sharp downdraft one day to make sure they panic and sell.
Not until the suckers are forced, does a stock reverse.
This time look for a break of 70 and then the 200dma to cause the panic.
Sale report due between the 15th and 19th - whoa big fella
Eventually CAT will have to cut its dividend and that will get it to a few months later to the 'real' bottom - 40's
This stock is a great one to play - "dependable" movement between overbought and oversold.
The reason I buy positions BEFORE they reach overbought/oversold readings is that when the turn comes the option premiums jump.
Yesterday we saw an early pop and quick reversal taking all day.
RSI went over 70 and reversed back under.
Blow-off open followed by RSI sell signal = buy puts!
Simple rules - no complicated spreads and hedges = $
If you bought CAT in the blow-off of the recent move, look behind yourself in the mirror to see if the stick is well planted - makes you the sucker!
Buy low, sell high - short high, cover low
I am buying 75 puts! - not for this week though!
too soon. So what do I do - I am quadrupling my put position.
Break of 74 has been dramatic, but uncalled for; but I have to go with the market.
Takes less $ to increase my position buy an additional 4 times than I already have exposed.
Also buying new put positions at higher strike.
This how to make real money: high beta, unknown business trend, underlying current bear trend.
Target of 70 in 2 months.
Broadcomm [AVGO] is brning it up in communications chips in other areas.
Do not be a sucker, take this opportunity to get out, buy puts or hedge your long with puts!
I second that opinion, he dissed me for no reason at all.
I have the facts on my side, he has nothing.
Facts do not necessarily lead to stock movement the way you want at the time you want.
But CAT failed to break 74 and looks to drop to at least 69-70 area, but should go to 62 area, pause, then lower. IMHO
We will see the reaction when JOY reports tomorrow - I have puts.
Sorry you cannot accept the facts.
Facts do not necessarily move stocks in a 'hoped-for' direction.
Just spend a little time and look up equipment sharing and CAT sales v competitors.
correction - low 90's [92 shoulder?]
correction - June sales report and earnings in July
CAT has not acted well and loss of market share becomes a future obstacle which could be worse than the loss of new business from China building boom being over.
Earth moving equipment is frankly a commodity. Even with GPS and other controls, everyone has it now.
And automation is detrimental as it permits more efficiency and less need to replace/upgrade once in place.
A contractor can do his own work and lease out to others - that says it all.
Thus leasing companies can do the same - as sharing becomes better than owning - UBERizing
could mean low 90'2 again - which would be a bargain for pre-earnings move up.
FB may have stalled, but could still creep up to the mid 120's - I have sold all of my call as of this morning.
Not buiyng puts, just waiting.
Such a gap over the 50dma would lead to at least the 200dma before there is real resistance - next week.
Weekly downtrend line charts to 105.50 - just about the 200dma.
I am referring to a daily gap where low of current day is above high of prior day whwn the current day's trading is over.
Gap opens are bad, they beg to be filled by 'systems'.
Good news, the immediate selling gives buyers pause and smart money [real buyers] swoop in quickly.
So far today, gap up to 98.86 and sell-down to 98.11 yielding 2 cent 'gap' over yesterday's 98.09.
I expect a clear break-away gap - not today obviously, but could happen Thur or Fri
lots of room to gap and fill the gap.
Just saying - but the tide towards believing is changing and a big short-covering move lasting several days is what should be expected.
Thus 102 and 106 could happen in a flash while fence sitters twiddling their thumbs.
I keep buying weekly and 2 week out calls, plus some June's.
This is the way to make $
That is the area of the island high. Assuming all that wanted to dump have dumped, there are no more sellers in volume up to 98.
We have rsing RSI, buy signal from MACD and plateauing full stochastics