Interesting article. It shows some element of growing pains.
I found it interesting that the occupancy rates of the resort hotels went down one percent to 88%. I had read that it is practically impossible for Disney Resorts to be 100%. Someone rents a room for friday to Sunday, another Tuesday to Thursday - it is next to impossible to rent one room for one day - as much juggling that one can do in matching stays with rooms, you just can't get 100%. And its not like, with some hotels, that you can find a person to rent one room for one night at the last second. So I think 88% is pretty good, and just a minor fluctuation.
Disney is doing just fine. It is having growing pains. And they've had some misses on movies this year. But they still have $5 billion of box office worldwide. That means a lot. They might just have $8 billion worldwide by the end of the year.
It matters because Disney will put ESPN back on track (and its not doing so bad right now). In the interim Disney will be expanding its other businesses, including its movies, garnering a lot of cash, and using it to buy back stock. When its earnings do up, and the market realize that ESPN is doing very nicely, AND they realize that Disney is earning $10 a share, the stock price will zome to a 25 pe ratio again.
And, yesterday, Finding Dory did over $17 million, putting it over $213 million. It could really do over $80 million, putting it just shy of $300 million. During the 4 weekdays of next week, it could really do another $50 million (that is $12.5 million a day, which would represent a drop of about 35% week to week, so that's reasonable.). During the 4 day July 4th weekend, it should do about $50 million, and , with a little luck, that would put it at about $400 million. $500 million is really possible if it meets these numbers (and these might be conservative).
In the meantime, Captain America and Jungle Book are steadily declining. But Zootopia is having a little renaissance. Its box office, after over 100 days, has been increasing, and increasing nicely. It could do over $1 million this weekend. If it continues, it will push its now $340 million domestic to over $350 million. Not huge numbers, but nice numbers.
I also wanted to add this - for it to have the 4th best non opening Tuesday is quite remarkable because it wasn't the 4th best opening weekend. Although the best for an animation movie, at most it's only the 9th best opening.
But I think $500 million is going to be a tough row. It has a lot of competition coming up (including the BFG). I think a $450 million domestic haul, coupled with a $1.25 billion global, would be wonderful.
I'm hoping both of you (dlf and osul) are right. And, I don't think Disney would cannibalize their parks - there is too much invested - they've planned it out well - just like DisneyWorld and DisneyLand.
I think its, actually, the opposite. Disney decides to execute some stock buy back orders, it drives up the price, and then, when it stops, it goes down. Similarly, after some exciting news, there is a leveling off.
Don't get too worked up. When it drops under 98, pick up some more stock.
I'm actually a little surprised about the stock price today - the horrible news out of Orlando shouldn't help (and let's all share some thoughts with these families who have suffered), and I believe that the news that Shanghai Disney is going to take a couple of years before breaking even shouldn't help (although some movie hangovers should also be hurting).
Maybe it is the Finding Dory news. Or some real excitement about Shanghai. Or realization that this is a very good stock.
If you're looking for a quick profit or loss, try amazon, apple, netflix. Disney is a long term play. It will do very nicely. But it's in a little rut right now.
They go to their hand held devices because ESPN gives your handheld devices access if you have the ESPN watch app - wait a minute - you have to have ESPN before you get this access - how do you get ESPN - you have to have cable!!!!
ESPN is going to make itself very valuable over the next few years. It will find a way to deliver this asset so that Disney makes good money.
Train companies went down the tube because they did not realize that they were in the transportation business, and, instead of exploring and embracing automobiles, competed with automobiles - guess who won and lost. Disney knows that it is in the entertainment business - it has to entertain, and will find appropriate avenues to entertain - it may be in cable, or stand alone products, or something we can't even imagine at this stage.
I speculate that we might see a little dip. I'm betting, that with a 100+ price, that we might see some scaling back of stock purchases. They might have bought back some last year at nearly 120, and see how much more they can buy back at lower prices. They also may be running out of money to buy back (at least based on board authorization, and perhaps because they are running out of SWTFA money). But this is wild speculation. If true, I think you may still be able to pick up some Disney under 100 in the next 3 months, but don't bet too much on it.
JB is still packing them in. They will have nearly $250 million this weekend (maybe more if they get a beat). CACW will begin to take some oxygen out of the room for JB, but there is a difference in the segments they target. They may have over $700 million worldwide, and if so (or close), they will be on their way towards $1 billion +.
Zootopia is in the home stretch. It will still glean nearly $5 million this weekend in North America. By the end of the weekend, it will only $14 million behind Inside Out, when a few weeks ago it was about $30 million behind. That doesn't mean it will match the domestic number of IO of $356m, but it means that it might still have another $20 - 30 million left after this weekend. Overseas it gleaned about $9 million during the week, which means maybe that it is picking up steam in Japan, which it means it could still hit $1 billion. That would be very very nice.
Think of it - Disney could easily have 3 movies in the top 10 next week - maybe in the top 6 or 7!! If CA could top $200 million, add another $30 for JB and Z. That rivals SWTFA