Certainly the ascent in crude oil price is the main reason for it. Short covering has contributed to PGNPQ's meteoric rise. Also, the debt restructuring, which wipes nearly $1 billion of debt from PGNPQ's balance sheet means that the company becomes even more of a low-cost, high quality competitor among its peers. Paragon can now remain cash flow positive at a lower level of drilling activity, and at lower rig day rates.
My 'best guess' is that the oil price will eventually stabilize in a range of $60-70, which is the range in which I think that North American shale oil production can gradually increase to meet global growth in oil demand over the long-term. CEO Stilley has stated in the past that Paragon will do okay with oil at $60, and since then Paragon has reduced its balance sheet debt by nearly $1 billion. So, I'm constructive on Paragon over the long-term. Paragon's operating leverage means that free cash flow can increase sharply as the price of oil rises over the long-term.
That's my gameplan. I'm particularly encouraged by the fact that 80% or so of the owned golf courses are located in the top 20 MSAs in the U.S. So, there is the possibility at some point that some of these golf courses may be repurposed and redeveloped into residential real estate developments. This provides optionality as land prices in these MSAs steadily increase over time, and as large, undeveloped chunks of land become more difficult for homebuilders to obtain.
Hey, stockguy, if you go back a year or so to when SNR was spun off from NCT, at that time Wes Edens stated he felt NCT's value would be in the $7-8/share area in 4-5 years or so after NCT monetized it's debt holdings, and built up the golf business. Since then, the stock price has been stuck in a rut below $5, but golf revenues and earnings continue to grow steadily. The CRE debt portfolio is being monitized, and that appears to be progressing according to plan.