How do you know what the bottom is? Next time please post your insights so we all know what the bottoms and tops are.
Liberty Mutual is paying 1.84x (tangible) GAAP book value IN CASH for Safeco. Is that cash subect to the claims of policyholders? How do you reconcile your valuation approach with such inconvenient facts?
You could have made the same 20% forecast for each of the last 10 years and yet they manage to deliver less than 10% over time.
Growth in tangible book value per share plus dividends, the most comprehensive measure of a company's ability to add value over time, at XL was -5% for 2007, 9% for the last 5 years (a hard market) and 7% for the last 10 years. With that record and a soft market, XL is likely to sell at a discount to tangible book value ($40 before further write downs) in the foreseeable future.
"WTM has long touted their relationship with Buffet as the main reason to invest ... "
Can you quote one such instance?
BRK/WEB, Jack Byrne, Franklin Mutual Shares...no, they don't know what reinsurance is. You will probably tell them. They can't wait.