I have a Bank of America account and I can verify that the MLP analysts there have been months and months behind the market. Their downgrade and new target of, I believe 8 down from 26, is likely the near bottom call.
Not sure that the Marine Division drop down will be positive for non-MPC unit holders. The deal will be 100% financed with MPLX units which, given the sell-off, represents a relatively stiff cost of capital. MPC will benefit from the normal distribution from the new units plus the resultant increase in IDR payments. I don't recall that being told that the Marine unit would be accretive to current unit holders during the conference call.
This morning management reduced 2016 distribution growth for 2016 to 12% - 16% citing ongoing weakness in product pricing and slower than previously anticipated volume growth.
I think Kinder Morgan slashing its dividend by 75% this morning has become the example of why the MWE deal was done. As you must know, the MLP model is to fund each project, whether organic or acquisition, with some combination of new debt and new equity. As equity prices fall, however, more units must be sold at these lower prices in order to satisfy project requirements. The cost of capital thus rises to the point that ongoing projects are no longer economically viable. Given the massive ongoing building program at MWE, management evidently believed becoming part of a financially stronger entity, MPC, preferable to the alternatives (the golden handcuffs were also attractive). It appears that KMI produces sufficient cast to satisfy its growth and debt service needs by cutting its dividend. Given the number of ongoing projects at MWE and the likely slower than previously projected utilization growth for its many new projects that might not have been possible for MWE.
However, to believe that MWE could remain independent while maintaining its distribution and continuing to grow distributions at 5% or higher each year in the current energy environment is, I believe, a fantasy.