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Biogen Inc. Message Board

docwatson45 32 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 11, 2016 8:00 PM Member since: Feb 19, 1999
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  • Reply to

    After earnings

    by dendro1717 Jul 11, 2016 4:03 PM
    docwatson45 docwatson45 Jul 11, 2016 8:00 PM Flag

    Well, if they can drive it to 85, the option writers save a good bit of cash. I am watching tomorrow and Friday for the dips - unless the market tanks, next week should be a good surge for GILD through 90 (again, JMHO).

  • Reply to

    After earnings

    by dendro1717 Jul 11, 2016 4:03 PM
    docwatson45 docwatson45 Jul 11, 2016 6:40 PM Flag

    August 90 calls are dirt cheap. It is a gamble given the short time, but better than Vegas!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • docwatson45 docwatson45 Jul 11, 2016 6:38 PM Flag

    Minor mess in the biotechs. OPEX - for GILD, I think we are stuck under 90 at least for this week. I would venture a guess (and putting some money on the August calls) we see low 90's at earnings.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • docwatson45 docwatson45 Jul 8, 2016 10:11 AM Flag

    More likely these are 10b5-1 planned sales. Look at his trading history - he sells around 100,000 shares per month and has been doing so for two years (at least).

    Sentiment: Hold

  • docwatson45 docwatson45 Jul 7, 2016 9:13 AM Flag

    Would be nice. 93 would get us 50% (almost) through the previous gap down. If the IBB continues up through next week, we could see some good gains pre-earnings (fingers crossed).

    Sentiment: Hold

  • This may be fun to watch and see if they try to hold off bringing it into their formulary. Can't go with ABBV this time - Epclusa got the only pan genotype label here.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Sweepstakes: where will GILD end this week?

    by grantuphill Jun 28, 2016 2:22 PM
    docwatson45 docwatson45 Jun 28, 2016 3:48 PM Flag

    With this market, I will be happy if we hold above 80 for this week. With earning coming up there should be a move up starting (you can be certain everyone is expecting GILD to post a beat and give a bit of upbeat guidance given last quarter's poorly handled report and cc). Should be good for a mid 80s run but I am not betting on more than that.

    Also, if Milligan and crew wants to surprise us all with a big run for the money, I would not object.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • docwatson45 docwatson45 Jun 24, 2016 7:27 AM Flag

    Be careful looking at this macro event. We will likely see a strong downturn in the markets (wild swings but the trend will be down) for a while. UK referendum is going to start up again the rumbling for additional referendums in countries that we have heard about before (Greece, France, Portugal) and some new one like Netherlands and Denmark. Germany will push harder than ever for leadership roles in the EU, and that will only lead to more division and calls by weaker economies to leave the EU. All stocks will be under pressure - and the cherry on the cake for pharma stocks is the US Election. Not a daily drop, but the downward trend is going to be in effect until this all sorts out and that is going to be ongoing for a long while.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Come on, GILD, pull a rabbit (or two or three or four) out of your hat. The crowd is waiting.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Hostile take over range

    by ugarti Jun 21, 2016 2:07 PM
    docwatson45 docwatson45 Jun 21, 2016 2:19 PM Flag

    At 109 billion market cap before any premium, that would be the largest buyout or merger ever in pharma history. Don't get me wrong: I would love to see it happen. Just wouldn't make sense as the cost would take a hellava long time to recoup. What could possibly happen is a merger of equals with a company like Celgene or BMY, but that is also a long shot.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    SNY maybe going after BMRN.

    by jay_r001 Jun 17, 2016 12:56 PM
    docwatson45 docwatson45 Jun 17, 2016 1:30 PM Flag

    It may open the door for GILD to bid on MDVN. I own BMRN (a good buy right now regardless of SNY rumor - they have been a buyout target for years) but their pipeline and development expertise / unmet need target markets are not in line with the larger and broader oncology market GILD say they desire to focusing on.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    What The??

    by mikemoore4gsc Jun 16, 2016 2:19 PM
    docwatson45 docwatson45 Jun 16, 2016 3:46 PM Flag

    GILD has had a number of approvals recently and, given its size, they just don't move the needle much. Even the Merck patent case reversal (which I thought would be a moderate catalyst) fizzled. GILD likes to slowly trend up and rocket down, so time is not on your (or my) side with July OTM options. Who knows: IF BREXIT vote is to stay in the EU and the US markets gets a few days upward bump, PDUFA positive, maybe some direction from Milligan on some bolt ons (or better yet, increase in sales estimates), god comes down and says he is buying GILD for his Holy Roller portfolio.....maybe then we get back to the upper 80s or low 90s by early July. But that is a big IF.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • docwatson45 docwatson45 Jun 16, 2016 7:51 AM Flag

    Missed seeing this article in Barrons: Wind down buybacks - speed up M&A. Good article (if the link doesn't work, put in Barrons - Gilead sciences goodbye buybacks hello M&A).

    http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2016/05/25/gilead-sciences-goodbye-buybacks-hello-ma/

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    is GILD finish ?

    by jimmywang100 Jun 14, 2016 10:45 AM
    docwatson45 docwatson45 Jun 14, 2016 12:41 PM Flag

    arts.crafts2: No one disclosed yet (there was a rumor last week of one firm but that specific rumor was probably smoke and mirrors), but there is simply too much free cash and near term profitability at hand for some firm not to step in at the cheap and shake it up. I think it is coming and soon, but that is JMHO.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    is GILD finish ?

    by jimmywang100 Jun 14, 2016 10:45 AM
    docwatson45 docwatson45 Jun 14, 2016 11:36 AM Flag

    Jimmywang, they have been saying for months they are prioritizing M&A but I believe they are far behind in this area. Deer in the headlights, is what I see (until the analysts started hammering on them regarding how they provide accretive growth near term, it was simply buyback and the current pipeline). This last quarter seemed like it was a complete surprise to Mulligan and team, which shows the lack of broad thinking of this executive team. I worry this CEO has no real experience outside of Gilead, so his actions are only based on what he experienced at GILD and that was slow activity until the Pharmasset acquisition and then - BOOM - to the moon. Unfortunately, good companies capitalize on amazingly good luck situations like Pharmasset - and much is luck in development - and that is not GILD's mode of operation. They continue to run like it is pre-2011 and, at these valuations, you will get nosebleed drops if they don't perform (as you can see).

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    is GILD finish ?

    by jimmywang100 Jun 14, 2016 10:45 AM
    docwatson45 docwatson45 Jun 14, 2016 11:00 AM Flag

    Not finished with all its success, but some activist investors will shake this up to get better a better return for investors. A company with blockbuster drugs hitting a growth wall and a helluva lot of cash being used primarily to fund buy backs (which do not seem to be supporting the stock) - someone will step in and probably soon.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • docwatson45 docwatson45 Jun 9, 2016 10:11 AM Flag

    The market is showing GILD that you can't be behind the ball in biotech, regardless of your present successes. Analysts are looking farther out than one or two quarters and GILD looks like a deer in the headlights when it comes to how it will build upon its past Pharmasset success - someone was sleeping at the wheel and the new CEO might have been the one.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    GILD...trading flat and waiting

    by joetong419 Jun 7, 2016 11:22 AM
    docwatson45 docwatson45 Jun 8, 2016 6:28 AM Flag

    The stock is a good day trade for retail and professionals trying to scalp. That noted, we have a gap to fill and if the market holds up we could see a partial (50% before retracing) in the coming weeks. Big risk is BREXIT so be wary of short term positions going into that vote on June 23. Options going into earnings are still cheap - worth the risk if you think we are trending toward that gap. I think we have 6 points to the upside by middle of July given that gap (but be wary of BREXIT vote).

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    what the news means...

    by saintuncle Jun 2, 2016 11:41 AM
    docwatson45 docwatson45 Jun 2, 2016 12:07 PM Flag

    The original guidance is from 2009. The new guidance (June 2016) is in the form of a Q&A document (along with a new form).

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    what the news means...

    by saintuncle Jun 2, 2016 11:41 AM
    docwatson45 docwatson45 Jun 2, 2016 12:05 PM Flag

    Agree, but the guidance does put some real emphasis on not impacting the ongoing / future trials so it will be interesting to see how this is done in larger populations. The key is that if a patient is eligible and able to participate in the ongoing trial, and they do not, that is a reason for exclusion from expanded use. They have a large section (Q24) that speaks to how they want to prevent interference with ongoing or upcoming trials. Overall, this guidance is good for industry and the patients.

    Sentiment: Hold

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