The local guys with "boots on the ground" know the mine and industry the best, they should retain all those guys.
Also I hope the keep Mark Wilson.
Is there any advantage to buying the TC shares here? I get averaging down of course, but...
Why not just buy the CAGDF shares. It's like buying 10 shares of TC for every share you buy of CAGDF, right? Six of one half dozen of the other. Plus get a small divvy and a little bit of pre merger diversity too....
See nothing anywhere about that - they just closed on a cool $170mm USD to provide the rest of the funding...
They are buying dollar bills for like 50 cents or so, they won't be going anywhere but the miners bar in BC that Do keeps talking about.....
It is under TCPTF - Fastracker just found it. You will need to do a free registration first. Not ideal but it seems to be the best of the lot out there.
Not like the katz-stan mine. But Turkey is not a real "comfortable" place of business either.
Wonder if Erd really stage that entire coup just to get rid of his opposition cleanly? I would not be surprised....
All of a sudden - I can post again?!
Don't think it will last so meet up at stock house as it's a nice clean place. Food is not too bad, the drinks are cold and the property is reasonable lol.
I feel good about CG as long as Katz-stan does not do anything stupid. So m,aybe I don't feel so good about CG after all....
But what other gold producers are this undervalued because of outside risks, political or otherwise AND have a huge catalyst waiting for them (in the form of higher moly prices in this case, at least at some point.)
This deal is immediately accretive to CG.
They should digest this deal, sell the Katz-stan mine and the one in Turkey too, and buy another gold property in a more reasonable area...INHO.
Ahhh- it's good to see you ultra. Care to walk over to the stock house board of TC. Seems like a nice new home. It is getting nigh on impossible for me to post here without jumping through a lot of hoops, and then half the time it mysteriously vanishes....
Private, Carl, Do, Gatr, TM, Skippy, etc. come on over....
Private, I see too much risk to CG from the crooked Kyrgyz Republic to worry about an ard trade, to make the trade work you need to assume the deal goes through, correct? While it probably will, I see lots of potential risks ahead before that happens. I don't think you can set it up to protect you from all eventualities...
Rock and a hard place.
Take the deal and go with CG, who has very significant business risks,
or BK in for form or another, or just bail now and but something else...
In looking over the annual report it appears that CG is in the middle of a series of lawsuits and litigation with the Kyrgyz Republic over resolutions they have already passed. To me, that does not bode well at all for CG. We may end up owning a company without the Kumtor mine, just basically the TC assets if things don't go well for them (and I don't see a reason to assume they will go well..).
So if the Kyrgyz Republic prevails we may have essentially the same company we have now, albiet a more stable one, but with only a 10th of our shares!
There is also a possibility that the Kyrgyz Republic may be able to block the TC acquisition or, much less likely IMHO, that shareholders may vote it down. In either case I see multiple scenarios where shareholders get zippo.
I like CG, IF they had insurance on Kumtor and IF the Kyrgyz Republic wasn't such a crooked mess, but unfortunately both of those are true... (They may have some sort of mining interruption insurance, but nothing that protects them from political events evidently.)
CONTINUED FROM ABOVE:
Why did TC NOT sell all of it's moly inventory when moly spiked?
Why sit on so much inventory as it declined down, down, down?
Why not utilize the LMC more fully, earlier, to it;s fullest capacity?
Again, why no discussion on that?
What about all the crusher issues? Were they sold a bill of goods initially, or did they just make a poor decision?
Why didn't they do as Ultra suggested and just buy some used temporary crushers, which would have been cheaper than renting / leasing them?
Why decide to go ahead and pay cash for a permanent crusher and not do a lease buyback or something that would conserve cash for debt repayment?
Were they turned down for a secured loan? Why was no discussion of the pros and cons?
AND, inexplicably, why not buy up debt for pennies on the dollar in Q-1?
(Were they told not to do so by one of their "advisors"?)
IF SO, why?
There is more, these are just some of the highlights.
In everyone of these instances management ACTED like it had the correct answers and refused any to bring up any discussion of them even in those instances when it became clear, in many of those instances, that they had made the wrong calls.
But if management HAD executed better, they may have had enough cash on hand by next year to pay off the secured notes, and then been able to refinance the remaining debt, even at today's metal prices.
So I blame the lack of execution of the management team, for where TC is now.
Rather, he was correct in the facts of what TC should do, or should have done, nearly every time.
Unfortunately, what neither he, nor I nor any of the other longs on here appropriately factored in was the incompetence, lack of foresight and the stubbornness? (I am not at all sure what to call it, really) of TC's management.
For the sake of argument, let's just call it the serious lack of execution and also the notable lack of all transparency from TC management.
Private and light probably had the best calls when they kept pointing out management's seeming incompetence. The rest of us just kept being surprised that management never seemed to learn from any of it's obvious mistakes and just kept executing so poorly.
Just in recent terms of Perron's rein - as going back farther to all of Kevin's mistakes, lies and sheer hubris would take far too long of a post.
Why did Perron initially come out with such low ball guidance?
We assumed he was being cautious, but he consistently lived up to his lowered expectations.
Why did Perron never hire a PR person that could walk and chew gum at the same time?
Why did they have such a large problem with ore hardness at MtM? It was tested by geologists and engineers. Did they buy the wrong mill? Did they have the incompetent geologists and engineers? Why was there never any transparency as to what went wrong, and why did it take so long to get under control?
Why have the recovery rates at MtM been so inconsistent and why did it take so long to get them close to projected levels? Did they have the wrong people there?
Again why was there no apparent sense of urgency about that issue, or about ANY issue with MtM?!?
Why didn't they mine all of TC phase 7 that they could have?
Was it the pit wall slide?
If so, why was NEVER any discussion of the impact of that slide and mitigation attempts?
Why did it take so long to shut down an unprofitable Endako?
Why was NEVER any discussion of TC's permitting issues?
Hey Carl, Not sure where Ultra is. He may not be able to access this board anymore.
I am having a devil of a time both getting here to this board and posting - and I'm sure others are too. I have posts on Stkhouse under dragon and Invhub, under johnnyvolvo - it does seem like Stkhouse is the better of the sites.
I'm not sure what to do, normally I would sit tight and take the shares of CG, but what if the deal falls through or something else happens to make this deal fall through?
Should I sell TC and just leave?
Should I sell TC and buy CG - generating some commision losses but preserving the current ratio?
Should I just sit tight and hope the deal goes through and nothing affects CG in the meantime?
I have no idea at this point carl, no idea.
If anyone is holding bonds I'd sell now. Stocks are a much thornier decision.
Private - you are forgetting one thing - many other parties may have also purchased TC debt on the cheap with the intent of being the winning bidder - only to not be selected - however, they would have made out super big time on any debt they invested in....
So probably nearly everyone made out on this whole process except for TC shareholders.....
Stockhouselookslikeagood alternative, miserablecur. I had totally forgotten about that one, (so many that were around in the late 90's early 200's are gone now), but it seems the cleanest and appears to have the best layout, betterthantheinvestorshub alternative.
Does not say, but it does state that all were less than the CG offer. And there is this caveat on pg 112:
"If you dissent there can be no assurance that the amount you receive as fair value for your Thompson Creek common shares will be more than or equal to the Arrangement Consideration under the Arrangement."
The cards seem to be seriously stacked against shareholders here, for any deal other than the current one, unless another competing offer comes in, which seems pretty doubtful...
I would have thought any interested parties would have already played their hand, or declined to do so, unless they were not notified of the opportunity, which would seem unlikely given what we see here.
Also..."The Centerra bid was the only proposal received that provided for repayment of the Notes in full in accordance with their terms with additional consideration remaining for Thompson Creek shareholders"
And additionally, bearing out this thesis on page 59....
"The Special Committee decided to make the refinancing and restructuring process a lower priority than the acquisition process because of the low value attributed to Thompson Creek shareholders in the indicative term sheets received."
"LOW VALUE"? Lower obviously than 60 cents or so....talk about zippo confidence in the board.