...which most likely will not materialize:
1. Novartis is buying Incyte
2. Actelion is buying Alder or Sage
3. Gilead is buying Seattle Genetics
4. Abbot is buying Neurocrine
5. Pfizer is buying Radius
as to MDVN: I added some 15% to my position yesterday. It looks as if CCXI is finally getting some deserved attention...
....might be that yesterday's selloff at large volume was related to Roches positive Interim results with obinutuzumab/Gazyva in foll. Lymphoma....Kind of "good results from a competing product (glycosylated anti CD20) eual bad new for TGTX"...
Which are the best risk/reward situations in biotech now? Like many others, I think that one should focus on mid caps with either a mature pipeline (one/several drugs (with possible blockbuster potential) which have just been approved, or have great odds of a near term approval). Or on companies with a solid line of approved products, such as SGEN, (or MDVN). Therefore, I have large/rather large positions in Radius (RDUS: osteoporosis; good competitive position), Seatlle Genetics (SGEN: Adcetris, leading ADC-platform, relatively cheap; my average buying price 34), Neurocrine (NBIX: uterine fibroids, endometriosis, tardive dyskinesia. A long term holding; average buying price ca 20USD), and -yes again!- Incyte (INCY: MPS, immnunooncology;average buying price ca 79 USD). New medium size position are Alder (ALDR: Migraine prevention, good competitive position; average purchase price ca 26USD), Acadia (ACAD: recently approved pimavanserin/nuplazid for Parkinson psychosis; average buying price ca 29USD). Today I bought a smallish position Intercept (ICPT: PBC, NASH) at ca 141 USD. Of course I continue to hold onto my large position in TGTX (currently at a lousy 7.8) and Fibrogen (FGEN: oral anemia market, fibrotic pipeline, currently selling at a meager 18.5 USD). I still own but downsized my positions in SAGE (SAGE: epilepsy) and Celldex (CLDX). Not really fitting my focus list, but very promising are my long term holdings CCXI, XLRN, PRTA and MGNX. CCXI's (ca 4.5 USD) performance has been more than abysmal, but it more than doubled after having struck a deal worth some 600mill USD (current market cap 200 mill!) for its oral CCR5a antagonist. Prothena (PRTA, currently at 45 USD: PD, Amyloidosis) is the brainchild of D.Schenk, one of the top scientist in neurodegeneration (average buying price 34). Acceleron (XLRN, ca 34 USD: anemia, cancer) is run by seasoned ex Genetics Institute execs. And yes, I still own some ANTH, and TKAI ...
After leafing through Accelerate Diagnostics (AXDX) CC-call presentation/8K, I decided to add some 15% to my position (at ca 12 USD). Who is right: Short seller Citron (target price: 1 USD) or the ex-Ventana Medical Systems/ Stericycle managament Team/BOD? I decided to trust the mangers/owners and not Citron, although Citron was the first one who cried foul over Valeant (Kudos!).
The significant losers, beside Civeo, are MRIC (I lost ca 2/3 so far; CEO Grillo is doing all the right things and the story looks somewhat more promising....he might even succeed in turning MRIC into a minor success story) . Other important losers this year have been CLDX (the Rintenga Blues continues, you can buy the whole pipeline almost for free now...unreal). Radius (at ca 32 USD) has also been a lousy stock (but not a lousy company! everything goes according to plan). I am down some 40% and recently bought some more. Way too cheap now. Actually RDUS is my top biotech holding at them moment, together with TGTX, another looser (ca 7.8 USD, down at least 30% from my average purchase price). I am pretty sure that the story of both, RDUS and TGTX, will play out as intended. I am a bit lukewarm at TGTX's push into the crowded Multiple Sclerosis market, but CEO Michael Weiss' opinion is, that the B-cell story in MS is just starting to gain traction (he is right) and he thinks that there is enough room for three B-cell companies (Roche (orelizumab), Novartis (Ofatumumab), and TGTX (ublituximab). We'll see....
A dash of good fortune came with Sanofi's bear hug (Medivation buyout). MDVN has been a large biotech position of mine solidly in the red, but now some 50% in the green. Then there was Pfizers Anacor buyout (at 99 USD). After having failed miserably in selling ANAC in the teens, I did buy back some shares in the 70's and had the vindication of a smallish gain.
After a great run up during the past 6 weeks, or so, where am I? Barely at break even compared with 1.1.2016...
Initially it was easy: all stocks were losers, but hard to tell which group was worst: O&G or Biotech? Well, I have owned both of them and was continuing to add, especially to the O&G sector during the downturn, with a numb mind, but a last glimmer of common sense telling me that the physics of production decline curves should finally prevail.
I started buying Range Resources (RRC) in the 60's, remembering that someone (at Morgan Stanley?) said the low bar -if we were REAAAALY unlucky- might be around 47. Hhhmmm....., RRC went straight down to 27. Consequently, due to my continued buying, my losses piled up at least as fast as those of CLDX, TGTX, MDVN, RDUS, etc etc.... Now, with RRC at ca 43, I am at least solidly in the green (20+%), not a home run, but okay. WPX, another Colorado based O&G company which I mentioned here before, went from 30 to sub4, where I was lucky enough to double my position. Now back over 10, WPX is a nice double in my books. Kirby, the solid inland barge company (KEX) went from 120 to 47. Of course I was underwater for quite some time, not dispairing though. Now, with KEX at 69, I have a 10+% gain on this large position, things could be worse. Still 50% in the red, of course, is Civeo (CVEO), the OIS-spinoff/ O&G-minig lodging company. The spin off occurred in the 20's... it has recovered form 1 to 2. I hold on and think CVEO will ultimately go much higher again. I recently started a large position of National Oilwell Varco (NOV) at 29-30, liking this solid cash flow gusher.
Techne surprised us with a very solid Q and its stock is reaching old highs: A reliable performer. I think our "new" CEO is doing all the right things to rejuvenate the company.
Last week I added to MDXG (some 15%) at 6.95, or so. When Petit bought as well, and not just with token money. An excellent performer and good long term holding....