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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

duckduffer 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 23, 2016 11:26 AM Member since: May 29, 2003
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  • Reply to

    Exchange of $71MM of converts done

    by urabt2 Aug 22, 2016 10:03 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Aug 23, 2016 11:26 AM Flag

    Here's a thought. If the market (PAR) for Xtandi is $5.6B, which is what some of the news story's are quoting, and MDVN shares Xtandi with Astellas (50%), then max revenue to MDVN is $2.8B. So now look at the valuation. $14B /$2.8B = 5 times revenue. EXEL at 5X PAR for Cabo??? Depends on what happens with 1st line RCC, HCC, etc, but at this point it wouldn't be crazy to suggest over $1B. Sprinkle on a little Cotellic valuation....takeout value should be north of $5B.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    New NCI trial

    by wilderguide Aug 16, 2016 4:29 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Aug 16, 2016 7:00 PM Flag

    Interesting that it is a Phase 2, with 110 patient target and a relatively short completion date of 1 year. But the start date is listed as next year (July 2017). Be"wilder"ing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer duckduffer Aug 5, 2016 2:10 PM Flag

    Hey Two Dogs,
    Don't fret. Dilution wouldn't necessarily be that damaging. Depending on how much they convert (Deerfield notes seem more like a cash payout, much cheaper than your example of 33.9M shares, cash would be roughly 125M) it would eliminate roughly $44M per year in interest expense. If EXEL's current sales trajectory, very impressive for 9 weeks of sales, implies Cabo to eventually be a $1B drug in RCC, what will they make? Let's see...expenses at the high of $270M (probably less considering fully diluted there is no $44M interest expense). COG's for manufacturing the drug at 10%/$100M. Gross sales of $1B less $270M less $100M = net profits of $630M. The EPS even at a fully diluted 327M shares....$1.93 per share. Growth company multiple of at least 15X....EXEL PPS of $29.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Positive opinion by ema

    by mkrjinvestment Jul 22, 2016 7:15 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jul 22, 2016 1:24 PM Flag

    I stand corrected.

  • Reply to

    Positive opinion by ema

    by mkrjinvestment Jul 22, 2016 7:15 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jul 22, 2016 11:21 AM Flag

    Positive opinion by CHMPs not going to get a press release. Final approval by European Commission will. That should occur 67 days from yesterday's positive CHMP's opinion. Wilder touched on the important points from the opinion.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Sales Forecast...

    by duckduffer Jul 14, 2016 1:27 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jul 14, 2016 2:09 PM Flag

    Just realized after reading captain's post, the analysts estimates average I posted was for next quarter. FYI
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Jul 14, 2016 1:27 PM Flag

    Going to be really tough to nail an earnings estimate this quarter due to the FDA approval of Cabo in RCC, which will likely have non cash compensation implications all over the place with incentives having been in place for staff. Having said that, wouldn't pay much attention to the EPS number. Sales is definitely the number to watch, as this may provide a short window on what to expect from a clinical adoption perspective. Essentially, they had 2 months to get the sales engine moving with FDA approval in RCC. What should that amount too? My SWAG-
    17,000 eligible patients x 25% share / 12 months= 354 per month. If Cabo gets 700 scrips in May and June, that would have to be considered best case scenario. If those scrips averaged $10k per month, we should see roughly $10.6M in Cabo RCC sales. Since the company has yet to disclose "by indication" sales numbers for Cabo, could we assume $7M in MTC, $1M in off label, and $10.6M in RCC? A total sales number of $18.6M for Cabo, perhaps a very positive number and one we should be excited to see? Analysts are averaging $23.5M for their quarterly sales outlook, but that includes Cotellic as well. Analysts must be very optimistic about the launch (and why wouldn't they be with the new Gold Standard). Any thoughts?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer duckduffer Jul 8, 2016 11:31 AM Flag

    "You can ding him for giving a shallow answer to a complex question, but he got the basic facts correct."
    Indeed. The ding should be for a completely un AF type response. No speculation, no "unnamed industry source or hedge fund manager" feedback that he is famous for quoting. Just a vanilla response with nothing to say. I would have liked to hear his take on a first line filing and his thoughts on Meteor OS since he was so quick to be critical of OS data being limited to "met endpoints" in the first PR. But alas...nothing.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Jul 6, 2016 12:19 PM Flag

    That was the buyout number being tossed around this morning on CNBC to acquire MDVN. Currently MDVN owns 50% of Xtandi in the US and double digit royalties for exUS sales. They share in the commercialization and development costs with Astellas. Their trailing twelve months of revenue is $996M.
    Discuss amongst yourselves. :)
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    One down, Nineteen to go

    by erniewerner Jul 2, 2016 3:47 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jul 2, 2016 5:13 PM Flag

    Pfizer paid a 55% premium to the current PPS for Anacor. Since it's been clearly communicated and confirmed on this MB that Dr. Papadopoulos, Chairman of EXEL's BOD will not accept less than $4B for the company and it's assets, the PPS will need to continue its path upward until reaching a PPS of roughly $10. At that level an offer that includes a 55% premium (15+PPS) will yield a gross value (after adjusting for options and assuming current cash nearly offsets the converts) that meets this $4B minimum criteria. This process should happen quickly as the acquirer wishes to close the deal before any new huge catalysts hit the tape...(RCC frontline filing based on Cabosun, Celestial interim, etc., etc.)
    These are the facts. :)
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    next 8K

    by retsoz Jul 1, 2016 11:05 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jul 1, 2016 1:03 PM Flag

    Snow,
    If the convert bondholders suspect a conversion is pending, it would seem that covering their short arbs now and driving the PPS of the common up substantially in the next several weeks....would be highly in their favor...no? Is that basically what you have been suggesting? If so, should make for a very very nice July for longs.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

EXEL
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