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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

duckduffer 65 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 22, 2016 1:24 PM Member since: May 29, 2003
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  • Reply to

    Interesting

    by duckduffer Jun 9, 2016 1:44 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jun 9, 2016 2:35 PM Flag

    Yes, lots of valuation moving catalysts, including a Japanese partner. Just trying to place a fair value on things as they stand today, all in and adjusted for risk since many have yet to mature. I believe it's as we sit here today around $3B ($13 PPS). Clearly, we won't pop to that valuation in a matter of weeks, but it should happen in the relative nearer term (months not years). As things develop, if most go as planned, that total valuation increases and the process accelerates.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Jun 9, 2016 1:44 PM Flag

    Interesting discussions going on re TA and trading strategies. For me this is still a long investment and the valuation is headed much higher than the current $1.69B. With RCC now looking more than ever like a $400M+ indication for Cabo, there should be little doubt the valuation will move to over $2B soon. That's close to $9 PPS. Then we try and understand the risk adjusted valuation for everything else, ie what is Celestial, the CRC Phase 3 Cotezo, all the ongoing Phase 2's including future trials for Cabo with PD1/PDL1 inhibitors, worth on a risk adjusted basis? I still believe we are headed to a $3B valuation with all the above factored in. And perhaps well beyond if things go well moving forward. Lot of runway left.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Buyout Near?

    by duckduffer Jun 1, 2016 12:46 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jun 1, 2016 3:51 PM Flag

    Just a quick follow up on my last post..."Justin" forgot to comprehend the partnership agreement in his revenue projections for EXEL. The good news, he was speculating only on US sales, the bad, he forgot that EXEL shares Cotellic profits only and thus EXEL will likely average something like 35-40% of the revenues he projected. Still a huge potential catalyst and adding in Europe licensing fees (low double digits) could still be a $350M revenue/profit indication for EXEL.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Buyout Near?

    by duckduffer Jun 1, 2016 12:46 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer Jun 1, 2016 3:20 PM Flag

    A post yesterday on Ohad Hammer's blog, did a really nice job quantifying the potential of the Cobi CRC opportunity, albeit it very early. Here is the portion of the post by "Justin".

    "Cobi/Atezo (REALLY EXCITING) – The oral presentation related to Phase I mCRC results look very promising as it could represent the first drug combo to work in mismatch proficient mCRC (which is approx. 85% of the 57K new cases diagnosed in US each year).

    If the drug combo were approved in this indication, it could become the gold standard and could be MAJOR to EXEL’s bottomline (85% x 57K patients = 48,450 eligible patients x 40% market penetration (low?) = 19,380 treatable patients x $5,000 per month ($5K is assuming Roche greatly lowballs the value of Cobi vs. Atezo in the combo) = $97mil in EXEL monthly revenue x 7 months on therapy = $678mil in annual revenue potential! This is HUGE (if happens) and could actually make Cobi more valuable than Cabo.

    What I find very interesting and encouraging about this occurring (Phase III for Cobi/Atezo in mCRC) is that Genetech posted a job last month for a Clinical Scientist Associate for the Cobimetinib Program."

    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer Jun 1, 2016 12:46 PM Flag

    With current valuation near $1.5B, is a buyout a possibility? Clearly EXEL has proven the value of it's assets are much more significant than was evident even 60 days ago. Cabo is positioned for the or one of the leading spots in the RCC treatment algorithm, an expanding indication heading for a $4.5B market by 2020. Besides RCC and MTC, Cabo could be proven effective in several other indications (HCC, etc) and as a combo drug with immunotherapy. Cotellic is also now FDA approved in combo for MM and is showing some very "provocative" early combo data in CRC with Roche's PD-L1 inhibitor. The question is really what is all that worth? And at this point, $1.5B, is the value close enough to find a bargaining point? The EXEL BOD is likely looking for a home run only type deal, as they know what they have and are likely confident in at least another key approval (HCC) in the relatively near future. Time will tell...going to be a fun year.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Motley Fool ..

    by sidi May 31, 2016 3:32 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer May 31, 2016 3:44 PM Flag

    MF is no better than Yahoo Finance. They are selling click thru volume, so ridiculous headlines with poorly conceived supporting articles. To suggest that 2 institutions who sold positions in Q1 is relevant to today's valuation is a poor argument. Those sales were prior to a number of huge catalysts (like early approval in RCC and positive CaboSun topline).
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Dr. Grothey recommends 2 of interest here. Abstract #3502 Cobi and Atezo in CRC and also "Using Genomics and Biomarkers to Predict Response" #103 PD-1 in mismatch repair deficient CRC. 50% response rate in deficient MMR and a 0% response in positive MMR.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer duckduffer May 27, 2016 5:43 PM Flag

    "the short position actually increased in May"
    It may have moved up slightly, but in general terms EXEL is no longer the short playground it once was. At only 22% of the float, the short position is no longer even Top 50 in the NASDAQ among highly shorted companies.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer duckduffer May 27, 2016 4:33 PM Flag

    $1B in PAR is still an optimistic speculation at this point. However....with the possibility of "blockbuster drug" status, $12 PPS is a somewhat risk adjusted valuation. A full valuation might be as much as 5X revenue, which at $5B is $21 PPS with the current shares outstanding.
    It will be an interesting year ahead.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer by duckduffer May 26, 2016 6:39 PM Flag

    Wasn't much discussion about it, but 11 days ago final institutional holdings for the quarter ending 3/31 were in. EXEL was back up to 77% institutional ownership, with over 176M shares held by 172 institutions. The largest holder, Fidelity with 34M shares. At that time, 3/31, the PPS was $4. Assuming the majority of those holders are still long, they are up 57% from that date. Not a bad place to have your money parked. Even the Baker Brothers had opened a position of 2.5M shares. No guarantees everyone sticks around, but encouraging to see such a high percentage of ownership.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    So here's our Analyst coverage (so far!)

    by captainhymanshocker May 23, 2016 12:16 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer May 24, 2016 9:37 PM Flag

    " The rational thing to do reading their press releases is to assume they are they are painting the best picture possible."
    Sage advice and definitely a good approach. I suppose my take is merely that the METEOR OS data that wasn't disclosed in the early PR's was speculated as being problematic for Cabo RCC sales (and AF wrote an article calling this out). They could have easily released the data and prevented the negative spin, so I'm not sold on EXEL PR's consistently painting of the best picture possible. On that occasion, they did not.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    So here's our Analyst coverage (so far!)

    by captainhymanshocker May 23, 2016 12:16 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer May 24, 2016 8:30 PM Flag

    "Has me thinking that maybe CABOSUN exceeded their expectations"
    There's been significant prior speculation that the EXEL clinical strategy moving forward was only for trials related to anti PD-1/PD-L1 combinations, basically rendering all the other IST clinical trials for informational purpose only. This CABOSUN data, however, may be compelling enough to have caused a reevaluation of strategy. And to your point, combine it with Levantinib approval, it can really stir things up. I don't share the opinion that EXEL has a history of over selling their data. I would suggest the opposite. Take the METEOR OS data for example. Everyone with an opinion (AF) disclosed their fears that EXEL was hiding less than inspiring results and therefore hadn't published the full data set. They couldn't have been more wrong. The best OS HR yet seen in RCC therapy.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer duckduffer May 24, 2016 4:04 PM Flag

    Cabosun was not a smaller trial from a data perspective. There were more patients in each arm of the study than the L&E study (50 patients per arm).
    "With 123 events (disease progression or death), the log-rank statistic has 85 percent power (with a one-sided type I error rate=0.12) to detect a hazard ratio of 0.67. Between July 9, 2013 and April 6, 2015, 157 patients were randomized: 79 patients on the cabozantinib arm and 78 patients on the sunitinib arm"

    Why would Toni Choueiri say"cabozantinib may have the potential to become a new gold standard" if the data wasn't good enough for a 1st line submission? That is an incredibly strong statement.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    So here's our Analyst coverage (so far!)

    by captainhymanshocker May 23, 2016 12:16 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer May 24, 2016 1:01 PM Flag

    Should we take a little focus off the daily tape for a while? And think more about where EXEL is going, to what valuation after this latest news? If you accept the estimates that the RCC drugs market will be over $4B by 2020, and an assumption of that Cabo would have to be at least 25%, what does it mean? The RCC drugs revenue baseline in 2013 was $2.6B, so let's say it's close to $3B today. With the RCC market and Cabo ramping up over the next 4 years, is it safe to say Cabo will achieve a PAR of $1B? With MTC and Cotellic revenues (which could also be significant with a Roche CRC combo), where is fair value today? Up until even yesterday, RCC sales were discounted with a significant risk factor (what if Cabosun had not been positive?). Going forward, my SWAG valuation, until such time that either quarterly sales prove out further value or HCC topline reads out positive, is $3B. At todays $1.41B valuation, we have some runway left. Should be a fun summer.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Does anyone believe PFE is just gonna say

    by enabeler May 24, 2016 9:44 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer May 24, 2016 12:36 PM Flag

    True, but they then lose the benefit of the gains on the bond conversion. IE, if the price of the common goes to $8, that is a 30% increase from today. A short holder with a convertible bond as an arb play will lose that entire benefit as they have to use their convert to cover the short position.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer duckduffer May 23, 2016 8:18 PM Flag

    You could make an argument that the Comet failure wasn't due to the indication, but due to the trial design. As wildbiftek recapped in Feb of 2015, "For 191 pts with visceral disease median OS was 7.1 months for Cabo vs 4.8 months for Pred (HR 0.65; P = 0.0215). " Had this been the target population, perhaps we get a much different outcome.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • duckduffer duckduffer May 21, 2016 2:55 PM Flag

    So...we now know why MMM threw that tell out during the Bank of America Investor presentation... Each year in the U.S., 147,000 new cases of CRC are diagnosed and more than 57,000 people die from the disease—making it the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths in this country.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    comparing Cabozantinib and Lenvatinib

    by biotechblood May 14, 2016 6:45 AM
    duckduffer duckduffer May 15, 2016 6:58 PM Flag

    Ernie,
    Any thoughts on the EMA following suit with an Lenva/Ever approval in RCC? Are they any different in how they historically view approval off a compelling set of Phase 2 data? And why do you think the NCCN voted the combo down, considering your early view that the data was strong enough for a possible approval? What did the KOL's from the NCCN not understand?
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    lenvatinib/everolimus combo approved

    by rad.onco May 13, 2016 5:05 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer May 14, 2016 1:04 PM Flag

    This Michael Schmidt comment from the Leerink upgrade aligns with what Ernie, Wilder and others are posting regarding it's impact on Cabo.
    "We believe the pending PDUFA date for Eisai's lenvatinib (multi-TKI) in 2L RCC on Monday, May 16, has created an overhang on the stock. Based on our due diligence highlighted here, we believe that (1) the approval probability of lenvatinib is very low, despite breakthrough therapy designation (BTD), and (2) if approved, we don't think lenvatinib would compete with Cabo."
    It will be interesting to see if any follow up commentary comes out next week.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    lenvatinib/everolimus combo approved

    by rad.onco May 13, 2016 5:05 PM
    duckduffer duckduffer May 13, 2016 7:20 PM Flag

    Would that indicate the combo would not be approved for use in 3rd line....after 2nd line Nivo? A place we have all assumed Cabo would be designated by many Oncs anyway?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

EXEL
8.68+0.09(+1.05%)Jul 22 4:00 PMEDT