The downgrade to underperform and the lack of insider bank support today caused the share price to fall to mid 4's.
Since it stopped falling without this support, I covered my shorts and took my profit because I think this thing will go back up to 6 or so and stay there for a few months to at least November when the next earnings report is released.
As we know the officers robbed this company of all its operating cash, so it should start running out of cash by year end and that is when I short again.
>Buy today, hold it for atleast a year... and be rewarded...
Not true. GRPN will be bankrupt within a year and will be trading for under $1. Sell now!!
Well, when a security is down 10% or more from the previous day’s close it triggers a short sale restriction (SSR). Once triggered, the duration of an SSR is the remainder of the trading day on which the security declined 10% or more and the following trading day.
The trigger happened Friday, so today, Monday, there was a restriction on short sells that expires at end of day today.
Tomorrow, there should be many many sellers shorting the stock to the max early in the session. That should trigger another SSR when pps drops 10% which prohibits short selling for the remainder of the day and then the following day.
Tomorrow, Tuesday, will be a groundhog day that repeats every third day for the remainder of the month or year.
Can the insiders and ipo banks hold this at 9.25?
It would take hundreds of millions and not save much face to hold at this level but I think they will do it.
They bought other businesses that have potential but not 6 billion worth.
Bumpy ride ahead.
Short selling will continue and drive down price to below 9.
This week, expect triggers will be hit again like yesterday.
Real valuation is bankruptcy, so make some profit by shorting this stock now that shares are available.
see my other post about the huge drop on Monday when short selling drives down the pps to below $9
Wait until it settles for a few weeks then make your buy decision.
Prepare for the trigger again at least on Monday when pps drops more than 10%. That means pps will be under $9 with huge short selling now that shares are available for shorting.
If you are long, now is the ideal time to sell since short selling is prohibited today. It will NOT be prohibited to sell short on Monday (at least until the pps falls again). Also the IPO banks are propping up the pps now and that will NOT continue forever.
The IPO shares are new shares being sold to the public. Thus the 6% number.
But for the last several years, the company has been borrowing money and giving the lenders shares. Thats where the 300plus million comes in.
The rest is the zuck and other insiders shares.
You can take this to bank.
Shares Outstanding 645.8M
This coming Friday this will change when the lockup expires.
Those who sell first will get the most bucks for their shares.
The lawsuits will bring the real problems to light within the next 6 months and the analysts will lower their targets again. I expect the high to be around $6 in 2013 but the cash will be depleted and bankruptcy in 2014.
I think it is just common sense that the first in line to sell will get the most for their shares.
Of course there are target prices by several analysts of $17 to $20, so maybe some insiders will believe the pps will recover to the target prices and then they can sell at less of a loss.
I don't understand how the insiders and analysts can ignore the common thread that the groupon model is broken, but that's just me.
Institutions Holding Shares
Days to Cover Shorts
Held By Institutions
I call 10.45.
pps manipulation will take over in the last hour of trading every day until end of lockup then katy bar the door.
On earnings release day pps will be manipulated up so the drop will be minimal.
It is actually a beautiful sight to watch the grpn share price being manipulated back up after a drop caused by sellers overwhelming the market maker.
It is obviously a well designed computer algorithm buying shares in a manner that will maximize the increase in share price for the least amount of money.
One might wrongly suspect that whoever is funding this artificial manipulation of share price would suffer a loss, but so far that is not the case. Those shares are sold at a higher price later that day but with another computer algorithm that minimizes the drop in share price.
Best talent abandoning ship as troubles mount. Business model is dead. Share price will plummet to pennies by year end. http://venturebeat.com/2012/05/03/top-sales-talent-leaving-groupon-as-its-woes-mount/
Also try a search against "Groupon" and "glassdoor.com" to read the inside story of what is happening in every Groupon sweat shop.
These are employees who know...