Hope your not going by a Zacks article which was wrong on earnings miss just like you are. They have beat three of the last four just off the top of my head. Meanwhile share price up 1000% in five years and 4,500% in ten years. Of course only SNY"s hand picked board can get full value for MDVN holders (chuckle).
So you are totally discounting the possibility that another company may be making a bid? This is my mind is ten times more likely to occur than for SNY to be successful. But than my guess is just that, a guess.
"I see low 60s as the best offer that may take this bride home." Than clearly you should sell, what exactly are you waiting for?
Raise the bid at the eleventh hour after most of the votes are in? They need to raise long before the 11th hour.
The #3 holder, Knoll Capital, was in a Forbes article stating they do not want to sell and they think the shares are worth $100. Add in a percentage who won't bother voting as well as the insiders and suddenly SNY is behind the proverbial eight ball. If SNY gets 20% of the vote without a significant bid increase I will be amazed. I will be almost amazed as I am by the posts here assuming its a foregone conclusion that SNY will win this battle.
Well those were the easy votes. It appears those who don't sign a consent at all count the same as a no. I suspect a healthy chunk choose that route. I would say this is going to be an uphill battle for SNY but let the voting begin, its the American way.
I am sure they don't want to lose control as well. Which would be why they would be calling the major holders to find out what their plans are. In the unlikely chance they feel they will lose the vote they will have to act accordingly and either dial up negotiations with other suitors or with SNY. I am on record to say that if SNY does not significantly raise their offer before the vote there is no chance they will prevail. Even with a raise I suspect they will have trouble.
Nothing to lose by waiting? I suppose if earnings drop and all further trials go wrong than you may be right. In which case they probably won't want it anymore.
lieandwin "Investors want to cash in and move on" You clearly know nothing about this company and its holders. First of all anyone with brains is not hoping for a quick 10% bump/buyout of a stock thats up 1000% in five years. INVESTORS like long methodical and big increases. What you are referring to is the johhny come latelies such as yourself that just showed up on buyout rumors. Look at the top ten holders of this stock. They are mutual funds and ETF's and most are index led. I can assure you they are in no hurry for the pennies being promised by SNY. They have been in this stock for many years, are likely on a first name basis with David Hung, and have looked very smart for having owned this stock. You really think they are going to vote for a hand picked board nominated by a competitor that made a low ball offer?
I am no expert but have never heard of a requirement that this information be given before hand, that would be a terrible rule and an awful investment strategy. I have always heard they have ten days afterwards to disclose.
The article was poorly worded, especially the heading which indicated Sanofi could get it for $63. I have felt all along Sanofi needs to up its price above the current price to be considered a player and $63 would do just that. I don't think the current board would be happy at that price and it would instead be a more reasonable opening bid, something people don't laugh at like the $52.50.
Agreed. Its a bit of a chess game at this point. SNY will up its price meanwhile MDVN will likely announce progress towards a sale of its own doing.
While I don't doubt there are hidden agendas I don't think anyone in their right mind makes investing decisions based on comments on these boards. Certainly there is not enough buying and selling based on anonymous comments to move the price of even a small company as this.
I guess I have the opposite view. Why would potential bidders want to wait and deal with SNY's (their competition) hand picked board?
lieandwin Not sure where you and others jump to the conclusion that its either get taken out by SNY or go it alone. There are other options that have been reported on. You are probably right if no one has interest in buying them the price will go back down (temporarily) but there are reports of a half dozen suitors as well as Astellas possibly in September. Read between the lines a bit. They are talking with companies about a sale, just not SNY. Why? There has been something in those calls or bid that MDVN does not like and chances are good we would not like as well. Just my two cents worth.
Perhaps they have already talked to the majority of current holders and have a good idea on how the vote will go. Otherwise I would have thought they would have delayed it.
"The Institutional holders will probably vote to replace board" I seriously doubt that. Not sure if we get to see a tally after the vote but I would be surprised if they get a quarter of the vote. Of course how the companies play this out between now and the vote may dictate the final outcome.
Add Knoll Capitals 2.67% to the insiders 1.17%. Knoll says there shares are not for sale and that they are worth $100 a share. So 3.84% are a solid no. Throw in a percentage that won't vote at all which effectively count as a no change vote and you start to see this is a bit of an uphill battle.