For the period ending 4/30 short interest declined 71 thousand shares to 4.5 million.
As of today most institutions have reported their balances as of 3/31/16. There were some notable moves.
1) Broadfin Capital up 1.8 million shares to 5.5 million.
2) FMR down 2.8 million shares to 2.9 million.
3) Manufacturers Life sold out their position of 819 thousand shares.
4) William Blair sold out their position of 505 thousand shares.
Overall institutional exposure remains very high at 88.5% of shares outstanding. I wonder what Broadfin is up too? Sorry to see William Blair call it a day.
How many surgical hospitals are there in the U.S. that perform the type of surgeries most applicable to our equipment. I'm going to assume a big number at 3000. Divide that by 100 salesmen and you have an average of only 30 prospects per salesman. If I was Arun, I would breakdown the country into 50 marketing territories. I would then blow off at least 40 of the least experienced or least productive salesmen. Imho, since they are now set on taking the sales force up to 120, they are moving in the wrong direction and marketing expenses
continue to mount. Sorry to sound so negative lately, but hiring no experience college graduates is foolish and the results are proving this.
Since commencing an independent marketing effort, Arun has repeatedly made a comment which has always irked me; namely, it takes 12 months for a salesman to become productive. At the latest CC Arun responded to a question about the sales force and indicated that since the company is now clearly established, the quality of the prospective salesman resumes they are now receiving is much better. The recent posting by controltek with the subject SOCIAL MEDIA indicates that most of the salesman that have been hired are college graduates. So that means no experience in the industry and no experience in direct marketing. Now it is easier to understand why they entered the 1st quarter with 100 salesmen and only sold 51 machines.
For the two week reporting period ending 4/15, short interest increased substantially by 460 thousand shares to 4.5 million shares.
p.s. Let's hope for some reasonable revenue numbers later today.
I believe the 3 years was mentioned by the company in their press release. The FDA rejected their application for their robotic surgical system and this is the time it will take to correct and test the problems found by the FDA.
By competition on the horizon, I wonder if you are referring to TransEnterix? Their robotic surgery machine was just rejected by the FDA. Will take them at least another 3 years.
He says, "We have been increasing our investments in imaging, analytics, and new product architecture to promote better outcomes." I can understand them investing more in analytics and architecture, but how would they currently be investing more in imaging? Or is he possibly referencing some other type of imaging such as magnification?
As you indicated on the other board, if this does involve us, the implications are substantial.
Thanks for the input. I hope this involves us and a more attractively priced contract. I never could wrap my head around why ISRG would bring out their latest model and not include our upgrades, especially given the level of their profits and cash position.
Unfortunately, the recent trend down stopped. Short interest increased by 40 thousand shares for the period ending 3/31/16 to 4,122,000 shares. That number is still down substantially from the short interest high of 7 million shares.
My recollection of the last CC was Arun indicating that 1st quarter revenues would come in around the consensus of the analyst which is $17.5 million.
It looks like we will get $17.5 million in revenues for the 1st quarter. If recurring revenue increases 10% as it did in the 4th quarter, it will will come in at $7.3 million in the 1st quarter. That leaves $10.07 million in Capital sales. Since they entered 2016 with 100 salesmen the average sales per salesman will be $100,700 or substantially less than the cost of one machine. Not good. These numbers assume all of the sales were domestic. Were there no capital sales internationally at all? That would be bad in my mind. If there were some, than the capital sales for the 100 domestic salesmen is even worse on average. Personally, I believe that in the rush to bring salesmen aboard, the company has not been as selective as they should have been.
2/29 to 3/15 - For the most part the pps remains in a narrow band between $9.25 and $9.375.
During this 2 week period, short interest declines by 650,000 shares. The largest two week
drop that I can recall.
3/17 - pps reaches as low as $8.67
3/18 to 4/5 - The pps increases 13 of the 14 business days during this period and is now up 42% from the
During a relatively short period of time the stock has moved from being extremely oversold (RSI of 27) to extremely overbought (RSI of 77). While daily price movements will continue to give us some insight, the next piece of solid insight should come in a few days when we see the latest short interest numbers. As with most investors here, I remain hopeful that some good news is percolating below the surface.
You are absolutely right . Over the past year we have had a number of strong upward movements only to come crashing back to the $9 to $10 pps levels. Over the past 10 business days the stock has increased on strong daily volume. The overall market has upticked over that period as well. We have moved from under $9 to nearly $12, which is a very strong move. Is it company specific or are we just rising with the tide?? Is it a coincidence that just prior to this move up, short interest declined by 650,000 shares during the first two weeks of April?? Short interest is now at its lowest level in over a year. I guess we'll know soon enough.
Andersongordon, that was a nice pickup on the wording of their press release on the Needham presentation. I double checked some of the more recent press releases dealing with announcing their attendance at these investor conferences. None contained any language related to updating business performance.
I hope your right about the $19.6 million because I'm not buying into the cyclicality of the 1st quarter. You would think that the fact this is a disruptive technology with such strong benefits both physically and economically would offset 1st quarter slowness. Also, Arun has repeatedly indicated that each salesman needs about a year to come up to speed. Even with that lead time, the productivity by half the salesforce is poor to bad.
At the last CC Arun indicated that revenues for the 1st quarter will come in around the consensus number of $17.5 million. The market has not been impressed by that number. That isn't much productivity when you consisder the size of the salesforce. The 5 largest institutional investors own over 47% of the shares outstanding. Unless there is a marked uptick in productivity we could see some some changes at the top.
I have been following institutional activity for the quarterly period ending 12/31/15. I believe that activity begins to explain the wild daily gyrations we saw during that quarter and if anything those gyrations continued into the 1st quarter.
For example, during the 4th quarter, 4 institutions increased their positions (in thousands) by 656, 1,774,819, and 505. 5 institutions decreased their positions by 755, 602, 874, 650, and 934. There were also quite a few in the 250 thousand to 500 thousand.
So many institutions moving so many shares on a relatively small company could very well be causing the stock to behave erratically.
There is no doubt that the shorters are having an impact, but in imho, much of the gyrations are being caused by the institutions. Overall though, institutional exposure in the 4th quarter declined negligibly which surprised me. Just a thought.
Arun was very explicit when he indicated an expectation that 1st quarter revenues would come in at analyst expectations which I believe is $17.6 million. That would be an increase of about 50% over last year which was a poor quarter.
As I expected, many questions yesterday were directed at the issue of salesman productivity. I had hoped they would be ramping up much faster both domestically and internationally.
As always, thanks for all the analysis. At this point, I am increasingly convinced that productivity is now the most important issue facing this company. I remain hopeful that Arun will have some positive things to say about the 1st quarter.