i distinctly remember placing my first short bet at $10 on Grexit Monday. Couldn't even get $4 for Brexit. That's the erosion tango.
Actually Ray, i don't think the Brits are going to "leave" at all. You're right i think in suggesting that the referendum was especially a vote on EU immigration policy after Merkel flooded the union with refugees then tried to pedal back on it. But as far as the UK goes, this referendum is an opportunity to regain control of its sovereign immigration policy while renegotiating what will probably turn out to be a more attractive - maybe even more intimate - economic relationship. Keep in mind immigration and customs are completely different beasts. UK will continue to move goods across the zone ~ trade will not be thwarted. Services are rapidly becoming an immigration non-issue, in any case, since you don't actually have to be in any specific location to sell and/or support software products, including database management. So many SaaS industries are already of Indian origin as you may have noticed. When you start consulting with a developer for your site-search engine these days, you're likely video conferencing with some guy in Delhi. That's just life in the big city these days.
If you want to take that kind of risk, based on market sentiment or investor psych, i think a better bet would be to buy TVIX first day back from the holiday, when SPX volume is low. Shorting TVIX with that 1% is always the best bet however ~ even if you're wrong on the short term, all it takes is an ounce patience to make your money. TVIX will always erodes to nothing in the end... unless of course you're subscribing to an "end of days" thesis. But even in a global economic cataclysm, TVIX longs would lose... it's an unsecured note ~ first thing to get de-listed when the shyte hits the fan.
Forget about any sort of tech analysis ~ don't think "MACD", don't even think in terms of support and resistance lines... just set your x-axis for any extended period and extrapolate from that. What would ever make you want to believe the sun will rise in the west tomorrow?
also, i never post on Sundays because that's my day of rest. Today is boring because money flows out of hi-beta so i have nothing to do but post here and make fun of TVIX stage one-twos.
This is a barefaced lie. i've never posted more than 32 times on any given day and i have the paid and reported posting logs to prove it.
Said the man returning to a place holder at the blackjack table after draining more cash from the ATM.
TVIX is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Don't sit on your hands, don't waste any more time. Buy TVIX today then average down once a week. The catalyst: After RS it will be worth 10X closing price.
I haven't wondered about that even once today. S&P VIX futures are up a couple of points from Friday and TVIX is up about 4% ~ It all makes perfect sense to me.
Longer term of course TVIX will head back under a buck like it always does. That also make perfect sense to me.
Erosion is built into the note. Contango was eating up about 20% per month this year ~ so It isn't a static relation to VIX: "Daily 2x VIX" ~ "daily" being the operative modulator here.
it's over $5 already... geez, you guys buy a thing called 2x S&P VIX but don't actually follow S&P VIX futures? They are streaming now, and at +55%, which translates to 110% of yesterday's closing price. No guessing required.
VIX futures are already up 55% beam... it's an easy double for TVIX right off the bell. could easily brak $5 or $6 as the day wears on. Like i mentioned earlier, however, there was a brexit vote today but there is no actual brexit anytime soon, and maybe never.
You're going to double your money on opening bell tomorrow dibari. Bu remember, the referendum was really just a public opinion survey... the UK doesn't actually leave the EU tomorrow. The withdrawal procedure can take years (Article 50) and without anything resembling a supermajority in the ref result, might never happen at all... once the market muppets start to realize that the ref wasn't actually a binary event, VIX futures will likely stabilize and TVIX gives back a good chunk of its early rally. It's a short term pop, but it's good money if you get it off the table quick enough.
Did you think your broker was selected to make credit decisions for every other broker int the world? Dumb bell?
I am no oracle like Mr. Berchik, but i can tell you this much for sure: "brexit" or "bremain" TVIX does another reverse split (# 4) soon enough. That's the best bet on the table.