I haven't wondered about that even once today. S&P VIX futures are up a couple of points from Friday and TVIX is up about 4% ~ It all makes perfect sense to me.
Longer term of course TVIX will head back under a buck like it always does. That also make perfect sense to me.
TVIX is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Don't sit on your hands, don't waste any more time. Buy TVIX today then average down once a week. The catalyst: After RS it will be worth 10X closing price.
Said the man returning to a place holder at the blackjack table after draining more cash from the ATM.
This is a barefaced lie. i've never posted more than 32 times on any given day and i have the paid and reported posting logs to prove it.
also, i never post on Sundays because that's my day of rest. Today is boring because money flows out of hi-beta so i have nothing to do but post here and make fun of TVIX stage one-twos.
Forget about any sort of tech analysis ~ don't think "MACD", don't even think in terms of support and resistance lines... just set your x-axis for any extended period and extrapolate from that. What would ever make you want to believe the sun will rise in the west tomorrow?
If you want to take that kind of risk, based on market sentiment or investor psych, i think a better bet would be to buy TVIX first day back from the holiday, when SPX volume is low. Shorting TVIX with that 1% is always the best bet however ~ even if you're wrong on the short term, all it takes is an ounce patience to make your money. TVIX will always erodes to nothing in the end... unless of course you're subscribing to an "end of days" thesis. But even in a global economic cataclysm, TVIX longs would lose... it's an unsecured note ~ first thing to get de-listed when the shyte hits the fan.
Actually Ray, i don't think the Brits are going to "leave" at all. You're right i think in suggesting that the referendum was especially a vote on EU immigration policy after Merkel flooded the union with refugees then tried to pedal back on it. But as far as the UK goes, this referendum is an opportunity to regain control of its sovereign immigration policy while renegotiating what will probably turn out to be a more attractive - maybe even more intimate - economic relationship. Keep in mind immigration and customs are completely different beasts. UK will continue to move goods across the zone ~ trade will not be thwarted. Services are rapidly becoming an immigration non-issue, in any case, since you don't actually have to be in any specific location to sell and/or support software products, including database management. So many SaaS industries are already of Indian origin as you may have noticed. When you start consulting with a developer for your site-search engine these days, you're likely video conferencing with some guy in Delhi. That's just life in the big city these days.
i distinctly remember placing my first short bet at $10 on Grexit Monday. Couldn't even get $4 for Brexit. That's the erosion tango.
Actually, TVIX dropping faster than you might expect... VIX futures are about flat today yet TVIX is down 4%... of course you now have to factor July S&P VIX futures to the equation. Arbitrage traders are frantically dashing their little fingers across the keyboard.
Look at the header here: "Daily 2x VIX" The market is loosely related to VIX futures, but TVIX is designed and manipulated by arbitrage traders to track S&P VIX futures accurately. Doesn't really matter if the market is only "Market is up 180 points" because TVIX arbitrage traders are holding it to June/July VIX futures... that all that counts.
You never really need to cover TVIX. I have covered maybe half a dozen times and, every time i covered, it was a mistake. If you want to try to second guess volatility fluctuations, then go ahead and cover-buy-short the worthless note all day long. But, if what you want is a respectable guaranteed return with almost no risk, then short and never cover your position until you are ready to pay the tax man and retire.
i seem to recall ndibari saying he bought at about $2.25 this last time around, on the binary Brexit bet... helluva risk to take on a referendum. I actually suggested he should get out on 1st or 2nd day after the vote in one his comment strings. With any luck he he dumped it all above $3. As for bercheck, jwetchy they are amazingly resilient to Stage 3 migration. It would be interesting to draw a blood sample from both subjects and see if there is any sort of marker that could explain it. Or maybe just an IQ test?