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Eli Lilly and Company Message Board

emclu 1594 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 17, 2016 7:03 PM Member since: Apr 25, 2000
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  • Is their sales revenues drying up. I see where last quarter revenues were down and at the conference call they were saying their sales will be down this quarter. Can I get some guidance and opinions.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    I think luv is a great company but...

    by emclu Jun 6, 2016 7:57 PM
    emclu emclu Jun 16, 2016 6:27 AM Flag

    Mr. Einstein looks into camera and takes a bow, lol. Once again great company. IMHO it coild go down to the mid thirties where it has great support prior to July 21st earning. Basing this on a market pullback. I just don't see a short term cataylst for a sustained move up until earning unless their buyback pushes them up. On the downside pressure I see the airlines as a group going down due to negative sentiment, fundamentals still good. Plus the market appears weak short term. I want to get back in but won't buy unless it hits $34-$36 range. One positive is the Motley Fool wrote a bad article on LUV yesterday, another positive is Cramer has backed off a bit on the stock and yet another positive is market edge has it listed as a short candidate.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • I think it is going back into the $30's. The airlines have not participated in the most recent rally. I suspect there will be a pullbacl in stocks than LUV goes below $40. Although it has seen very good support at the levels it is at today. IMHO

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Okay lets talk epipen....

    by emclu May 4, 2016 7:35 PM
    emclu emclu May 6, 2016 6:54 AM Flag

    Lofgrenfan, I hope that is the case, just nervous with money on the table. With the small market cap and potential products ADMP could do very well if things go right. Good Luck to all.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • That is the catalyst if it gets approved. However a company like TEVA with all their resources is having a problem bringing it to market. Also Sanofi had to pull their device off the market. ADMP already got turned down and is hoping they can get approval. Whoever reviews this for the fda must be pretty tough. So it is no slam dunk that admp is gooing to get approval. As a matter of fact I would say odds are no approval. If they do the stock will sky rocket. If not stock will definitely be under $5 short term if not lower. Recent price action has been very good although all the volume traded today and no move concerns me. IMHO Good Luck to all.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Silly article by the Street

    by jbaaaaa11 May 2, 2016 3:30 PM
    emclu emclu May 2, 2016 7:05 PM Flag

    Lol, I saw that too. What a #$%$ article. I am concerned that they had like a 14% drop in the week before earning. Seems like some earning news leaked out to some large institutions. Generally not a good sign before earning release. I can't believe they didn't sell out to TEVA and here they sit at 50% below that price.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    LUV: Re Company share repurchase

    by ctoads Apr 28, 2016 12:28 PM
    emclu emclu Apr 29, 2016 5:10 AM Flag

    Do they actually have a committment to complete the buyout. Based on the way the stock is moving it doesn't look like they are buying back. If I were the agent buying I would wait as it seems like the airlines are tanking. LUV has had a lot of good news and upgrades since earning but has fallen back.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Keep an eye on Carlo as He

    by wyattkap Apr 17, 2016 9:30 AM
    emclu emclu Apr 18, 2016 8:50 PM Flag

    2018
    In 2018 they have $100 million of epipen sales. At a 13% profit they make a dollar a share. They submit the nda for their inhaler that has the potential for billions in sales. They get way over valued & pop up to $1 billion in market cap. Their business model is sound if they can execute. Lol, probably won't happen but not out of the question.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Not a lot of messages on board. If they get the okay of the epi-pen should go into the teens. If not back to 3's. IMHO

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    LUV buys 21% of itself

    by ctoads Feb 6, 2016 3:35 PM
    emclu emclu Feb 13, 2016 7:31 AM Flag

    Value line is projecting shares outstanding in 2018-2020 as 575 million. That looks definitely achievable. Hopefully jet fuel stays low. We need the general market to do well for any kind of move up in the stock. Plus oil needs to stay below.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • emclu emclu Jan 15, 2016 5:57 AM Flag

    Gary you would think low oil would be good but this morning with oil below $30 and down over 5% in pre market LUV is showing down in pre market. Hopefully next week they will report good earning and it may be a good catalyst for a move up. Still looks like a great buy to me. Should continue to generate a ton of cash, low debt, continued growth with new routes.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • emclu emclu Jan 12, 2016 6:20 AM Flag

    I fly Southwest and in general people are very friendly.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Hopefully US markets will show some leadership but we seem to be followers as of late.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • emclu emclu Jan 3, 2016 7:23 PM Flag

    Yes I see oil up I wonder if that is due to the tensions between Iran & Saudi Arabia. Although I don't think that will help SUNE. The low price of natural gas to me is the key factor as that depresses wholesale power prices. The East, South & Midwest have had a lot of coal fired units off because of low NG prices. California markets are really dependent on NG as they have virtually no coal fired units with the exception of whatever they import which is about 30% of their supply. NG prices have increased from $1.80 mmbtu's to over $2.30.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • 4th quarter results will be very good. Should around $4 in 2016. Typical forward pe of 16 puts it at $64 sometimethis year. Low debt, union contracts being workrd out and tons of cash building up.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Observation...

    by gentz005 Dec 10, 2015 11:44 PM
    emclu emclu Dec 11, 2015 10:57 AM Flag

    Here is the way I look at it. I wouldn't worry to much about the value of the assets but keep in mind they do have 50,000 MW's located all over the country. To build similar assets to what they have a minimum price is about 2000/kw or 2,000,000/mw so building 50,000 mw of replacement power is 1000 billion. At these power prices no one will build new generation or it will be minimal. This is important as more generation is retired this year. Here is what the company needs to so in order of importance
    1) consolidate all the renewables that are losing money into a subsidary company and insulate that from the core business (fossil generating, retail electric & select utility renewable generation. They are doing that.
    2) Dump non performing assets and see what cash you can get for them. They are doing this.
    3) Cut O &M costs as much as practical.
    4) First priority. With cash is to service debt, interest expense & debt due. They should be able to do this.
    5) As all this is playing out try to maintain the dividend. This will provide stock support.

    NRG will probably have an income of about $15 billion next year. They only need about $1.2 billion or less to service the debt & about $200 million for dividends. I am not saying this is a good buy here but if it drops due to market conditions to the $8's it would be a good bet in my opinion. Their revenues for this quarter are going to be bad due to power prices. IMHO

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    DO NOT TRY to catch this falling knife.....

    by captain79110 Oct 26, 2015 12:23 PM
    emclu emclu Nov 3, 2015 6:14 AM Flag

    Here is the scenario I see. They may go down on eanring report if they disappoint which I think they will based on the recent moves with the renewable portion of the company that has been a big failure. Sentiment will get really bad. The big plus here is that their dividend right now is pretty good. They only have to pay about $205 million to sustain to dividend which isn't alot for a company with revenues like theirs. They are going through a lot of cost cutting and when they get rid of their renewable business could probably increase the dividend depending on waht they do with the renewables. Their fossil generation business is still pretty solid and should continue to be so as they are diversified across the country. Their retail business should also do well. I am not saying buy for the dividend. I'm saying if this drops to say $10-$11 on sentiment due to earning it would be a buy as the dividend should support that price and when things settle out it would creep back up. In 2014 they had a lofty valuation because they were touted as being a big solar company, now they are At a fairly reasonable price for a company that generates power and has a retail arm. Who knows could be worse than we realize and we could be in single digits. My opinion is the CEO made some horrible decisions in the renewables end that really killed shareholder value. Low natural gas isn't helping. Even if the fed raises rates it won't be much and is already factored in. A big plus is if they could sell their "green company" and get out of it with a reasonable loss and move forward. However with itc for solar going from 30 to 10% things don't look good for that. My strategy is if they drop to the $10-$11 area short term, which they probably won't I would be a buyer. IMHO

    Sentiment: Hold

  • emclu emclu Oct 28, 2015 9:53 PM Flag

    Might be overbought based on a short term trading basis, valuation still looks good. At a 13 p/e based on 2015 earning. average annualized p/e of 16. If oil prices stay lower LUV could see $50 to $55 a share. Plus it is one of the industries still doing well. I think thay are going to buy back more stock.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Bought

    by ammpmmxway Oct 22, 2015 12:41 PM
    emclu emclu Oct 28, 2015 6:19 AM Flag

    What are you looking at next?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Nice gains everything continues to look positive, low debt, good cash flow, low oil prices, valuation still looks good

    Sentiment: Buy

LLY
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