Election Day is an opportune time to check in with David Rosenberg, the plain-speaking chief economist and strategist at Canadian investment manager Gluskin Sheff + Associates. From his perch north of the U.S. in Toronto, Rosenberg looks at the U.S. presidential election from the edge of the so-called fiscal cliff and the tough budgetary decisions that await the election winner.
What Rosenberg sees is a nation where stocks are 20% overpriced against a U.S. economy that faces, if not an outright recession, then a “growth relapse” that would trim GDP expansion to around 1% at best.
“The economy is still in the throes of a multi-year credit contraction phase,” Rosenberg told clients in a research note published Tuesday. “What we can expect is for the pace of activity to weaken substantially during periods when [Federal Reserve] stimulus fades.”
Why is the market rallying?
It seems, based on the chatter this morning, it’s because Romney had a big lead in Ohio. That, in fact, is not the case.
It seems the market seized on a report from the Cincinnati Enquirer that showed Romney with a big lead in Ohio. It turns out the Equirer accidentally published a template page, with dummy data.
Front month Options expire this week and it looks like the puts are overwhelming the CALLS....gives the impression that the share price might go up this week. (to de value the puts, which stand to gain the most) Just a thought. If you don't think open interest in the options market has an effect on share price....you're kidding yourself.
Why nobody buying here (85.90) Its a nice support level. Too scared to hold over the weekend?
Sentiment: Strong Buy