any of these factors can drive this stock to $90+ range in short term
Bottom line, VRX is getting undervalued by "holding company discount". There is no reason for VRX to put them under one umbrella. Bausch + Lomb is a multi billion dollar company by itself.
New CEO/board of directors/Ackman should consider spinning off B + L as a separate entity like how ABT did it with AbbVie - their combined market cap went up 50%+ just because of spin off.
Twitter is the target for major marketing companies to buy out. Twitter carries the fastest impact on social media.
If it is not a marketing company, it may be a private equity to take over.
simple and rough calculation - VRX generated about $400M in cash flow.
- cash balance up $700M
- current debt down $150M
- accured liab down $500M
- LT debt up up $1B
- CFO up $558M
- CFI down $112M
This quarter was somewhat less than last year but it definitely performed well given the tough environment. Remaining quarters should be in line or above the new guidance which it should generate another $1.3-$1.5B.
Given the fact that the company pays about 4% annual interest in debts, I expect to see company building up cash position throughout the year.
As Ackman and new management/boards are exploring to divestiture non-core assets, Year-end cash balance may be as high as $4.0-$5.0B range.
And what's the stock price? it should have been $80 - $120 using similar multiple to industry average.
Also, $660M of depreciation and amortization is "non-cash" item based on GAAP, i.e. EBITDA is much higher than EPS projection. Is VRX making any additional acquisition? Did VRX miss any reporting requirement at this point? None. Which means, its balance sheet with $6.60-$7.00 EPS with $660M D&A is improving so much this year.
Is VRX still a target for M&A? Yes. The possible price range? I think it should be in the range of industry multiple.
Best trading strategy? Buy Call Options.
And I just realized something - this 15 days is considered to be a grace period prior to getting late fee which lenders are entitled to receive.
Who is getting this hidden fee? Lender or LendingClub? If it goes to LendingClub, the company is truly committing the fraud as it is collecting interest payment which belongs to lenders. If it goes to Lenders, it also violates original loan document which states that there is no fee charged under 15 days grace period.
Either way, LendingClub needs to reimburse this amount and makes an apology statement for borrowers before a class action lawsuit starts.
No wonder why CEO walked away quickly and no one is interested in taking the position.
Another scam that LendingClub is going to answer.
LendingClub has been sending out an email that stated that borrowers can change payment date by before/after 15 days from current payment date. But, what they didn't tell borrowers was that it would increased monthly payment amount!
CFPB should be looking into this situation - borrowers are getting charged with hidden fee with clearly stating to customer under Disclosure Act.
TPG doesn't just walk away for initial rejection by company. this private equity firm will go hostile on VRX.
btw, TPG's AUM is $75B+ so they can overbid any other buyers including Ackman/Pershing.
I wonder why analysts' estimated EPS for this year is $10+ per share. 10x gives $100 stock price, 20x gives $200. for TPG, VRX is cheap no matter what price it is trading at.
Maybe KKR or 3G may be interested here especially, 3G worked with Ackman on Burger King deal and made a fortune before.
Their loan volume is down and in order for them to stay float, they must reduce operating cost.
Paying ridiculous amount of cash/stock compensations to software developers and marketing leads simply don't justify the benefit of it.
Prosper is already in progress of chopping 20%+ of their employees to the company alive.
Plus, LendingClub must reveal loan performance even if it's horrible (risk-adjusted return in mid-low single digit?)
Otherwise, it will go down under $1 especially with CEO got fired and all stock bonuses are getting sold on the market.
no more first move advantage. also, do people know that it costs $$$ to replace battery? $45,000.
which means all the risky assets will be re-evaluated while people with cash would consider to park their money in bank.
Guess what LC is going to do? They need to start offering loans at much higher rates which then it would only attract subprime borrowers. Further deterioration on loan portfolio will make LC to find new lenders.
Not just LC, ONDK is also in trouble.
No wonder government is getting a part of investigation.
On top of that, cash balance on LC's balance sheet is LC's but lenders. Don't forget, when lenders put cash into their account while they don't invest, it is sitting in a "restricted" cash account. Did LC manage it properly by segregating accounts that were supposed to earn interests for lenders?
investors are looking for M&A on AGN! share buyback means that management doesn't know what to do.
as healthcare stocks like VRX went do bad recently, AGN should consider buying a stake of those companies.
remember LC about 3 years ago? they used to disclose all the detail in loan data to public. guess what happen now? LC stopped publishing data while its loan performs poorly.
also, LC is nothing more than payday loan company using other people's money. look at what they did with all the money they raised during IPO - executives take big chunks of salaries and bonuses while company was losing money. who's losing money here? shareholders. who's banking money here? executives
have you guys even looked at their corporate office in San Francisco? this is a joke.
don't forget, now LC admits the lack of screening process which is going to bring another piles of lawsuits since they have been advertising to all the lenders that they had a rigorous screening process.
just like Prosper, 30% of employees will be laid off so keep the company floats
over 50% of equity is now in cash?!!!
if you don't have any idea how to utilize cash, do SHARE BUYBACK before Icahn or other hedge fund guys tell you to do!
Not just VRX, take a look at all pharma stocks- NVS, GSK, SNY, AZN, ABT, TEVA, SHPG, MYL...
Why? because of health insurance companies - look at their stock price. They went through the roof. Simply, they reject or provide less amount in medical claims. But, this discourages small players to spend R&D for next blockbuster drug since there is no market for it.
Guess what is going to happen? existing pharma will do extremely well as they control the market until medicare increases CMS rate for them to increase profit which then small guys restart their R&D.
It is a double-sword strategy for medicare to pull down CMS rate - it helps insurance companies while it impacts consumers to have better treatments.
their 2014 EPS decreased from $2.67 to $2.58 (full diluted). while their 2015 EPS increased from $0.20 to $0.27 (full diluted).
Valeant Pharmaceuticals' ($VRX) skin drug Targretin, used by lymphoma patients. Valeant bought the drug in 2013 and promptly raised the price. For CMS, the drug's unit cost rose by 123% last year, to $145.65, and Medicare spent almost $89,000 per user on the drug. Overall, CMS shelled out $73.5 million, more than double its 2013 spending, with an increase in patients of just 12%.
Dollarwise, CMS laid out $1.725 billion for Lantus last year, a $400 million increase year-over-year despite a 6% decline in patient count. CMS spent another $2.02 billion for Lantus Solostar, an increase of almost $700 million, or about 50% year-over-year. Solostar's patient growth amounted to 13%.