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HomeAway, Inc. (AWAY) Message Board

erbium_doper 2187 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 24, 2015 12:10 PM Member since: Jul 7, 2000
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  • erbium_doper erbium_doper Dec 24, 2015 12:10 PM Flag

    hmmm....relative strength very weak....not consistent with a momentum stock.

    for the last few years AZO always outperformes the major indexes....last month the exact opposite happening

  • Reply to

    Oil Price Drop

    by swissrat Dec 15, 2015 1:04 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Dec 16, 2015 8:49 AM Flag

    got a new tundra....don't even change tranny or diff oil. Its lifetime. The level of repair new car vs old is plummeting.

    in my state inspection is becoming much more restrictive.....a lot of old cars aren't worth fixing.

    Movement to deport the illegals. Then watch old car usage drop with fewer to repair/drive the beater with a heater.

    this biz has many headwinds. When does the game of musical chairs stop?

  • erbium_doper erbium_doper Dec 12, 2015 10:10 AM Flag

    good point with Yellen raising next week the interest expense that AZO pays on their huge debt is likely to translate to the bottom line....headwind.

  • erbium_doper erbium_doper Dec 10, 2015 8:12 AM Flag

    they provided no guidance other than to imply that El NIno is affecting their recent quarter.

    no real discussion on the effect of historically high new car sales on the business. Highest since 2000. 50% of their gross sales are attributable to broken car parts. When you buy a new car and park the old car expect the failure rates to drop dramatically.

    its still a food chain. The new car gets driven more the old car gets sent to auction. Somebody replaces a really bad old car with an improved old car. The net result is the really old car that took the lions share of the maintenance gets replaced.

    they skimmed over the new car effect during the call never really addressing it.

    aap numbers sucked, dorman numbers sucked so these guys aren't being effected?....I don't believe them

  • erbium_doper erbium_doper Dec 6, 2015 10:52 AM Flag

    they are no better or worst then aap. Actually NAPA is better with superior counter people imho

  • erbium_doper erbium_doper Dec 2, 2015 8:26 AM Flag

    they've been a major momo stock for years. But at the end of the day they are just another retailer. Competition has surged.....now I can buy my stuff on Amazon. Net margins will deteriorate with commodity price competition. It always ends this way. Look at LULU. Another momo stock once the darling of wall street now hammered after peaking.

    when this thing breaks its gonna break hard. Look at the Macys chart.....M

  • Reply to

    I own a repair shop

    by expsmog Nov 14, 2015 10:30 AM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Nov 27, 2015 10:02 AM Flag

    during the great recession average car age was increasing by .3 years per year for several years. This year its targeted to be around11.4 with no significant increase. Take the slope of the curve, first differential and the rate of growth of car fleet age is going down. Would expect that sales increases would halt. This was confirmed in AAP numbers with a .5% increase in sales.

    so the business will stop growing. NO way to make the 5.6% sales increase expected in estimates. This business sector has topped out. The company has a negative book value as the principals have taken all the profits to pay their stock options. NO way to fundamentally justify valuations. When the momentum stops it could be a long slide down.

  • Reply to

    Obama when for a run and couldn't breathe....

    by coalfox1 Aug 3, 2015 2:35 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Aug 3, 2015 9:11 PM Flag

    So Obama smokes and hates coal? Save the world AL gore style by flying a private jet, living in a McMansion and owning a Yacht. Its OK to by a hypocrite and be president?

  • Reply to

    Needs to go up 49 percent

    by billspringxyz Jul 20, 2015 3:27 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Jul 20, 2015 8:44 PM Flag

    this stock reminds me of going to monte carlo, and being on the roulette wheel and doubling down 7x in a row.

    so now the bet is whether or not they go bankrupt. Several factors to consider, is china going to rebound?, were is india in all of this?, is Bernie sanders going to run as an independent virtually assuring that Hillary loses her presidential bid, thus Obama is replaced by a coal friendly administration and multiple executive orders get rewritten including export terminals for coal shipments to Asia, increased LNG capacity worldwide. EPA is told to back down, and we get a modern day James Watt in the administration.

    the climate could change dramatically in 6 months.

  • erbium_doper erbium_doper Jul 20, 2015 8:09 AM Flag

    so the Chinese are talking co2 reductions with the worlds greenies meanwhile they study sun Tzu and do what ever the communist hierarchy wants to do.....claiming they will reduce their CO2 usage for political purposes and buy the cheap coal for economic purposes? When they control the numbers and own the pen what would anyone expect?

  • Reply to

    CSX beats estimated

    by summitrps Jul 14, 2015 4:14 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Jul 14, 2015 8:54 PM Flag

    link?

  • Reply to

    Shale drillers’ hedges set to expire

    by coalbull9 Jul 3, 2015 5:35 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Jul 5, 2015 10:38 AM Flag

    so with no money to drill new wells we get low supply elasticity so when the LNG tankers roll 6% of the product oversees, there is no appreciable increase in supply. Price will continue to rise but supply won't keep up.

    bodes well for coal stocks, as electic utilities will run the coal instead of the Nat gas.

    if Oklahoma supreme court ruled in favor of increased lawsuits for earthquakes, other states likely to follow suit. The soft costs are likely to increase going forward, so nat gas prices will increase.

  • erbium_doper erbium_doper Jul 4, 2015 7:59 AM Flag

    trying to get my head around the supply/demand curve on LNG/nat gas. I guess if the nat gas goes to substitute for home heating oil in asia, then the supply for electrical generation becomes less. The nat gas price increases and we get increased use of coal as a result. With the price of nat gas so low then we get some supply constraint as the desire to drill for a loss constrains supply. Or is the use of lng goes into the elimination of gas turbines which actually burn diesel then we don't get a substation for coal. If nat gas simply replaces coal then I don't see a net gain.

    it comes down to the elasticity of supply for nat gas. If supply isn't appreciably adjusted upward then coal prices have a shot at stabilizing.

  • erbium_doper erbium_doper Jul 3, 2015 11:14 AM Flag

    the other factor that may influence the price is that large Cheniere LNG export terminals will be coming on line year end 2015. If we see large exports of nat gas to asia were the price is enourmous, how will that effect US prices? If we see breakout of nat gas out of its trading range that would be a tailwind for Thermal coal.

    If 6% of US nat gas goes overseas its not clear on the impact to nat gas prices, as its not necessarily a linear function.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • erbium_doper erbium_doper Jul 1, 2015 10:19 PM Flag

    mans been around about 3 million years if you count the monkeys. In this period we've had 10 ice ages.

    whats to believe that we aren't headed for another ice age. If we do whats the effect of global warming? Does it slow the next ice age another 20 years? ....30 years? It just doesn't matter, mother earth and first order effects will dominate regardless of what humans do. Burn as much coal as you want, its #$%$ in the wind.

    might as well send millions of people out of poverty with electricity with the most abundant easily utilizied form of energy......coal. Undergraduate eco-terrorists can't connect the dots maybe it because they smoke too much weed?

  • Reply to

    FINALLY , someone uses their brain

    by divin4tacos Jun 29, 2015 12:58 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Jun 29, 2015 7:52 PM Flag

    Whats the price that the stress your average household experiences because they can't make ends meet because they need to pay the 200 per month electric bill or they don't have a job?. Whats the death rate of heart disease as compared to CO2? Whats the comparison? 1000x times, 100,000 times as high? 1,000,000 as high. So a dollar of CO2 risk is actually a million dollars of stress related risk? I'll take cheap energy over co2 any day.

    the EPA is out of control...... thank god for the supreme court.

  • Reply to

    Shepard has been selling his shares for months

    by dr_ooopha Apr 24, 2015 8:41 AM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Jun 7, 2015 10:27 AM Flag

    shorts are trying to talk down the stock. As if a yahoo message board could do this...haha. Fact is even if away wants everyone on automatic payment some including myself will resist. I'll never go on autopay for my 2 properties and I don't need too because they are completely booked out. If I drop in the search order it doesn't matter, I'm getting enough bookings because the site is getting tremendous traffic. Even so I'd be willing to up my annual fee as my net margins have been improving year after year if I needed to increase in the search order but I don't. This all translates to more dollars for Homeaway and its customers. This thing is a freight train that's starting to roll out of the station, eventually it will increase speed and net margins that are well below, trip, airbnb, expedia, priceline will translate to the bottom line.

    100% autopay will never happen and who cares. So I can't book my property on expedia or kayak, once again who cares. Its only a goal. Goals will never be completely met and everyone with a brain knows it. So some properties can't be booked automatically....who cares. Many will be and that's all that matters.

    I say chill out and enjoy the ride, any reversion to the mean when Airbnb has a 20 billion market cap will cause this stock to climb. Airbnb is likely to come down and Homeaway will revert to Airbnbs mean which is an order of magnitude higher than the current stock price. The wildcard is with Kayak competing against Expedia its just a matter of time before Priceline gets into a pricewar with Expedia over Away ownership.

    this thing is undervalued at twice the price based on Private equity pricing models.

  • Reply to

    AWAY scam

    by dr_ooopha Apr 23, 2015 5:51 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper May 30, 2015 8:02 AM Flag

    i list on both airbnb and homeaway and we cancelled our airbnb because the customer gets charged 10% and the interface is mean and pathetic. Can't have a reasonable dialogue without having airbnb censor much of the meaningful information. If you do anything Airbnb doesn't like they threaten your ratings and attempt to strong arm you.

    airbnb may be a great service if you are renting out a college dorm room or stuffing somebody in a rent controlled apartment in manhattan but isn't set up for the high level of customer service required to serve more affluent customers that away caters to.

  • Reply to

    reinvent

    by rnsawaya May 19, 2015 6:24 AM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper May 19, 2015 4:25 PM Flag

    the coal guys need to enter the distribution into the massive home heating market that was killed by cheap heating oil back in the 60s.

    there are a lot of places that nat gas will never reach for a lack of pipelines that will never be built. The quality of the stocker boilers is currently superb. An example is EFM. When powder river sells for $10 per ton and heating oil/diesel is still north of $3 it makes me wanna scream when I fill up my oil tank in the basement. Unfortunately coal costs $300 per ton locally because its anthracite. But why wouldn't I burn PRB pea coal instead, a few less BTUs but who cares.

    Looks like a real possibility for a carry trade of cheap coal to the northeast. Stuff is 1/10 the price of oil imported from a bunch of really bad people? #$%$

  • Reply to

    NG on the rebound.

    by historyrepeats45 May 12, 2015 1:55 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper May 15, 2015 7:30 AM Flag

    agreed that future demand will likely be Chinese and indian demand driven. Albeit a lot of other countries with little money could benefit as well. The issue to date was the drop in Chinese consumption of coal. Their rate of energy consumption was huge and it hit the doldrums. Whether or not this is a blip on a multiyear curve is the issue. Once a nation become industrialized, in the case of the US since 1948 its a straightline of energy consumption northward.....at least that was the case for usa

    its a globalized multiyear strategy....noticed there was a newsfeed recently that implied that the Rothchilds were buying coal assets....you think they might know something about long term global trends that some 30 year old hedge funder doesn't?

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