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erbium_doper 7 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 24, 2015 12:10 PM Member since: Jul 7, 2000
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  • erbium_doper erbium_doper Dec 24, 2015 12:10 PM Flag

    hmmm....relative strength very weak....not consistent with a momentum stock.

    for the last few years AZO always outperformes the major indexes....last month the exact opposite happening

  • Reply to

    Oil Price Drop

    by swissrat Dec 15, 2015 1:04 PM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Dec 16, 2015 8:49 AM Flag

    got a new tundra....don't even change tranny or diff oil. Its lifetime. The level of repair new car vs old is plummeting.

    in my state inspection is becoming much more restrictive.....a lot of old cars aren't worth fixing.

    Movement to deport the illegals. Then watch old car usage drop with fewer to repair/drive the beater with a heater.

    this biz has many headwinds. When does the game of musical chairs stop?

  • erbium_doper erbium_doper Dec 12, 2015 10:10 AM Flag

    good point with Yellen raising next week the interest expense that AZO pays on their huge debt is likely to translate to the bottom line....headwind.

  • erbium_doper erbium_doper Dec 10, 2015 8:12 AM Flag

    they provided no guidance other than to imply that El NIno is affecting their recent quarter.

    no real discussion on the effect of historically high new car sales on the business. Highest since 2000. 50% of their gross sales are attributable to broken car parts. When you buy a new car and park the old car expect the failure rates to drop dramatically.

    its still a food chain. The new car gets driven more the old car gets sent to auction. Somebody replaces a really bad old car with an improved old car. The net result is the really old car that took the lions share of the maintenance gets replaced.

    they skimmed over the new car effect during the call never really addressing it.

    aap numbers sucked, dorman numbers sucked so these guys aren't being effected?....I don't believe them

  • erbium_doper erbium_doper Dec 6, 2015 10:52 AM Flag

    they are no better or worst then aap. Actually NAPA is better with superior counter people imho

  • erbium_doper erbium_doper Dec 2, 2015 8:26 AM Flag

    they've been a major momo stock for years. But at the end of the day they are just another retailer. Competition has surged.....now I can buy my stuff on Amazon. Net margins will deteriorate with commodity price competition. It always ends this way. Look at LULU. Another momo stock once the darling of wall street now hammered after peaking.

    when this thing breaks its gonna break hard. Look at the Macys chart.....M

  • Reply to

    I own a repair shop

    by expsmog Nov 14, 2015 10:30 AM
    erbium_doper erbium_doper Nov 27, 2015 10:02 AM Flag

    during the great recession average car age was increasing by .3 years per year for several years. This year its targeted to be around11.4 with no significant increase. Take the slope of the curve, first differential and the rate of growth of car fleet age is going down. Would expect that sales increases would halt. This was confirmed in AAP numbers with a .5% increase in sales.

    so the business will stop growing. NO way to make the 5.6% sales increase expected in estimates. This business sector has topped out. The company has a negative book value as the principals have taken all the profits to pay their stock options. NO way to fundamentally justify valuations. When the momentum stops it could be a long slide down.

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