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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

erniewerner 192 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 15, 2016 11:37 AM Member since: Jan 18, 2000
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  • Reply to

    New high is lurking

    by godhairyballs Jun 8, 2016 2:58 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 9, 2016 10:11 PM Flag

    "The source that I gave on May 14, was the holdingchannel - search also by Holding Channel."

    Okay, sorry to nitpick, but I see reported position of $48,185,000. The total issue had a face value of $287.5M. What am I missing? They do appear to be the largest holder, but less than 20% of the outstanding bonds.

  • Reply to

    New high is lurking

    by godhairyballs Jun 8, 2016 2:58 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 9, 2016 6:33 PM Flag

    "Reason is our now CB holder - High Bridge"

    I don't want you to betray any confidences, but this I think you can comfortably explain. You mentioned earlier that High Bridge owns almost all of the CB's. and you seem to again referring to them as the singular owner of the CB's. Where is this coming from? I looked through the form 13's and saw them are the largest holder, but even then it was a plurality, not a majority. Is there an information source more recent than the SEC filings?

  • Reply to

    Not much of a bounce off 6.92

    by erniewerner Jun 8, 2016 12:15 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 9, 2016 4:50 PM Flag

    "You also seem to be spending way too much time thinking about me when you should be thinking about yourself."

    This coming from the guy that doesn't need my contact information and thinks he's going to gain something by outing my divorce status. The dufus that is going to make me suffer the consequences for manipulating the stock market. That crosses from being obsessed to plain creepy.

  • Reply to

    No politics!

    by erniewerner Jun 8, 2016 5:53 AM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 9, 2016 3:15 PM Flag

    "Not bad, entertaining. Feelings not hurt, just looking for a chuckle."

    The psychology of Yahoo message boards has always fascinated me. There is the information sharing for sure, but the other aspects are like a bad reality show that you can't quit watching even though you know you should.

  • Reply to

    Not much of a bounce off 6.92

    by erniewerner Jun 8, 2016 12:15 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 9, 2016 3:00 PM Flag

    "What plans does the CEO and Board have for cash from Ispen?"

    You put your finger on a hot button with that question. We can look at the balance sheet and project out the relative success of each drug and figure on the likely revenue. We can handicap Celestial and Cotezo and figure the revenue growth if those succeed. We can plan on debt retirement occurring at least on the due dates or maybe even sooner. What we can't plan for MMM going out and buying drugs and assets from other companies. The Cabo success in RCC may have given them the impression that have an expertise in ushering drugs through the regulatory process and a future growth driver could be acquiring mid-stage programs from cash strapped biotechs and finishing them off. I've got to say that that prospect worries me. I hope they just stay the course and let the parts that are in motion play out without feeling the need to spend some of their newfound wealth.

  • Reply to

    Not much of a bounce off 6.92

    by erniewerner Jun 8, 2016 12:15 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 9, 2016 2:49 PM Flag

    "...because: 1. Converts were active. 1A. Question has to the announcement making a timed concern difference to the lowering of debt ratios (not saying actuals)."

    You and I view this company and the trading in its securities very differently. That's not necessarily a bad thing. Despite taking different paths, we have thus far viewed the prospects and likely outcome very similarly. When I see an event as 98% likely to occur and the instant market reaction on the nnouncement is a 10% increase in share price, I chalk it up to irrational exuberance and figure I have a potential profit by the market correcting back to what I believe should be a 2% gain. You (I believe) are watching the mechanics of the market, who exactly is doing what with the conversts, options and common and manipulating the market to make that correction occur. You are much more concerned about debt than I. I see fluctuations and I don't really care about the root cause of the fluctuation, I just assume that any artificial manipulation will eventually have to give way to solid fundamentals.

  • Reply to

    New high is lurking

    by godhairyballs Jun 8, 2016 2:58 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 9, 2016 2:32 PM Flag

    "Ernie - The way I read the redemption is that it could occur as early as 8/15. The 30 day period isn't dependent on the 8/15 date. Looking at a calendar, 30 consecutive trading days prior to 8/15 would commence on 7/1."

    Thanks for pointing that out. You're right, I'm wrong. The end of the quarter requirement only applies to the bondholders right to initiate a conversion and not the company's right to call the bonds early. I missed that. If the sp holds above 6.91, it will happen in Aug.

    Duck just pointed out that the current market cap is 1.69B. Just so everyone understands, if the conversion is all stock, overnight there will be an additional 54M shares outstanding. This will cause the market cap to jump by 54M times the current share price. The long term debt attributable to the bonds will zero out. It will push the current market cap above 2.0B, but the debt to equity ratio, creditworthiness, and financial viability of the company will improve substantially.

  • Reply to

    Not much of a bounce off 6.92

    by erniewerner Jun 8, 2016 12:15 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 9, 2016 1:43 PM Flag

    "He's a great contrarian indicator"

    Right back at you Salty. You are a contrarian indicator of sorts for me also. I see you creating narratives to fit your desires, cyberstalking, sniping from behind an anonymous ID, erasing your past posts to cover up the truth and letting your paranoia override whatever common sense remains. You are an excellent role model for how "not to."

  • Reply to

    Not much of a bounce off 6.92

    by erniewerner Jun 8, 2016 12:15 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 9, 2016 12:21 PM Flag

    "I can see another pop coming every you're selling yours for a big Mac ;)"

    I've had a few Big Mac trades, but this one was pretty good. My most recent purchase was at $7.07 and the two prior were in the same neighborhood, 7.11 and 7.13 I think. It's a matter of perspective. I don't measure by the best possible case, which would be selling near the high for the day. I'm thankful and pleased for the profit I realized rather than disappointed I didn't hold out for more.

  • Reply to

    Not much of a bounce off 6.92

    by erniewerner Jun 8, 2016 12:15 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 9, 2016 11:34 AM Flag

    "Hey Erni, I wonder which strategy is more successful over time, tryin to pick a bottom with trading shares or adding on a breakout?"

    I don't have a name for what I do. My best trades have come based on news events. Call it conceit or ego, but I think my opinion on what a news event is worth in terms share price is better than the markets valuation and I think I see it sooner. It's why I've often sold into announcements that are totally foreseeable events and why I built a core position back up pre-ASCO based on Cotezo and CaboSun. The daytrading outside the core position started out as just for fun, but it has proven to be very profitable. I know it irks a certain segment of the readership to no end and I suppose that is also part of the appeal.

  • Reply to

    Not much of a bounce off 6.92

    by erniewerner Jun 8, 2016 12:15 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 9, 2016 10:39 AM Flag

    "What's stronger the resistance or golden cross?? Lol"

    Great question for the short term. Sold the rest of my trading position @ 7.29, still holding the core. I think I'll get to restock on trading shares today. We'll see.

  • Reply to

    Not much of a bounce off 6.92

    by erniewerner Jun 8, 2016 12:15 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 9, 2016 9:57 AM Flag

    "If this is the correction, it sure was a small window of opportunity. Hey, if it checks a box for the TA guys and makes a run at another 52 week high permissible, I'm all for it."

    New 52 week high. Looking to the technicians here for an update. I know this is a significant event technically, but I would appreciate a bit more in depth analysis beyond my superficial opinion.

  • Reply to

    The Rock Stars who developed Cabo and Cobi

    by ksjcook Jun 8, 2016 9:06 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 9, 2016 8:33 AM Flag

    "So from a valuation perspective, other than XL888, do you think all of EXEL's cards are on the table?"

    Pretty much. CS 3150 is worth a mention, but it is relatively early in development and likely has a low royalty rate on it. There are a few other partnered programs still alive, but nothing that is likely to move the needle.

  • Reply to

    No politics!

    by erniewerner Jun 8, 2016 5:53 AM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 9, 2016 8:12 AM Flag

    "So where is your post about no weapons related discussions?"

    Doesn't hardly seem fair does it? Sorry your feelings got hurt. It's a judgment call. I have a finite amount of influence and if I try to use it too often by squashing every bit of off topic jabber then I become a problem also.

  • erniewerner erniewerner Jun 9, 2016 12:19 AM Flag

    "I was under the impression shorting a stock is a relatively short-term proposition (days to weeks) given reports on short positions are usually stated as "days to cover"."

    Days to cover is a measure of the total size of the short position relative to the daily trading volume of the stock. Take EXEL for example. The average volume is about 5 million shares and the total number of shorted shares is about 45 million. Days to cover would be 45/5 or 9. If the average daily volume was solely composed of short covering, how many days would it take to close out the short postion?

    You can stay short for as long as you want. It's not without risk. When you buy a stock, 100% of the purchase price is at risk. Because there is no limit to how high a stock can rise, there is also no limit to the theoretical loss a short position can suffer. That's one of the reasons short positions are often hedged to limit risk. If you have a losing short position in an account and do not have assets on deposit sufficient to cover the loss, brokerages will close out a position without your permission.

  • Reply to

    The Rock Stars who developed Cabo and Cobi

    by ksjcook Jun 8, 2016 9:06 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 8, 2016 10:50 PM Flag

    "Anyone know who the (dude or dudet) is that discover these drugs and if they, or their teams, are sill with EXEL?"

    When BMY returned XL184 (Cabo) to EXEL, they transitioned from being a drug discovery company to a drug development company. They undertook completing the clinical program for Cabo, disposed of the non core assets and furloughed the entire R&D staff, roughly 200 employees. So unless MMM or Peter Lamb were the actual discovery scientists, I don't think the responsible parties are there to accept the credit any longer.

  • erniewerner erniewerner Jun 8, 2016 10:42 PM Flag

    "Can you even cover a short position with borrowed shares?"

    The act of selling short involves selling something you don't own with the intent of purchasing it later at a lower price. It's not hard to see the potential for abuse. If a shorter wanted to drive down the price of shares he could just keep piling on and selling more and more. One scam involved death spiral financing. A viable company would take out a loan with repayment scheduled in shares of stock. The lender would drive down the share price with naked shorting and then get all those shares back at a discounted price in the form of debt repayment. The shorting was done from offshore unnamed accounts. SEC has closed a few loopholes to prevent this particular scam.

    I used the term naked shorting. Let me explain. Current SEC regulations require that the short actually borrow existing registered shares from someone else before or shortly after the transaction is conducted. A short without borrowed shares is a naked short and is prohibited by SEC regulations. For a period market makers were exempted from the regulation, but it was expanded to remove all exceptions. Through error, carelessness, or malfeasance it still occasionally occurs, and those occurrences are tracked and reported as "failure to deliver" events.

    So the borrowing occurs at the time of the initial short sale. Brokerages literally have to keep track of shares available to short and they charge the shorting party interest for the duration that the short position exists. If I wanted to short $10,000 of XYZ company, Fidelity would notify me of the interest rate to borrow those shares before I could complete the transaction.

    Fidelity has what they call a direct lending program. I make the positions in my account available for lending to shorts and Fidelity splits the interest they charge with me. For a while my EXEL shares were essentially paying me a 3% dividend.

  • Reply to

    Exelixis Inc. Setting New Standard of Care

    by saltydog711 Jun 8, 2016 7:45 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 8, 2016 8:08 PM Flag

    "Now they "OWN" shares as well."

    They've actually owned them for several years. The omission of ownership in that article may have been an oversight or perhaps they were out of the stock for a while.

  • Reply to

    New high is lurking

    by godhairyballs Jun 8, 2016 2:58 PM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 8, 2016 4:02 PM Flag

    "Today trading action confirmed convert bond will be gone by the end of this month."

    The bonds cannot be called until the end of the 3rd quarter.

  • Reply to

    $12 is fair but $20 is wanted ...

    by godhairyballs May 10, 2016 10:35 AM
    erniewerner erniewerner Jun 8, 2016 2:45 PM Flag

    Good job levitating there Henriette. Let 1/2 the trading shares go at 7.23.

EXEL
10.96+0.05(+0.46%)Aug 26 4:00 PMEDT