"A message board that charges a monthly subscription fee, what's up with that? Lol"
IV has both a free and a subscription fee option. The premium pay version has extra bells and whistles. The functionality of the basic free version is superior to Yahoo. I'm going over there.
"What are we seeing here?"
Bit early to call this a reversal and EXEL was one of the better performers in the sector. The IBB was down 1.75%. Even here EXEL is just 23 cents from its 52 week high.
"Thoughts on earnings?"
The Cabometyx launch will go well and there shouldn't be any negative surprises. This will be an opportunity to announce their intentions vis a vis the converts and I think that will be well received. Earnings should be a positive.
"Also disabling the Adobe Flash plugin stops the unwanted streaming."
That made a big difference. Thx.
Joe, yes for the time being I will keep my Yahoo email.
"Totally agree. When the "workaround" stops working, I guess I will try to find another stock board for EXEL"
I've been posting on Yahoo mb's for 15 years. Every change has been a step backward. The search function is marginal, links can no longer be posted, the streaming ads suck up bandwidth, spam is not blocked, message length is limited....etc. I am contemplating a move to Investor Village.
"Where is Linda and Les these days? Spending millions of dollars on what?????"
I'm going to guess they are busy doctoring the record to give themselves some degree of deniability and also moving personal assets around to make them as unreachable as is possible. It's a shame. Biotech exists to improve our lives and relieve suffering and disease, both noble causes. Yet the very nature of the industry, selling concepts and ideas with a high degree of sanctioned opacity encourages abuse and malfeasance. You've all been scammed and the best thing you can do is quit drinking the Koolaid and do whatever you can to achieve some form of accountability.
"Hey Ernie, when the converts are redeemed for common we can expect that a portion of them wil be sold immediately for profit. It actually may be a short term hit to the stock, just like any other event."
First, I can't guarantee that the company will call the converts. I'm pretty sure they will, but it is their option to do so and not a requirement. If they do, they have the option to do stock, cash or a combination. I'm expecting all stock, but again, that is my opinion.
So assuming all stock at the first opportunity, you're asking how it will affect the share price. My expectation is that this is an anticipated event and the share price impact should be minimal. There will be 54 million new shares issued, many will immediately be used to cover short positions. The remainder will go into various institutional portfolios and as you suggest, some of these may wind up being sold. But again, I think the market is aware of this aspect and the rally has paused here as adjustments are made.
After the redemption, the market cap will jump and the valuation will be stretched a bit further, but the balance sheet will get cleaned up and liquidity will no longer be an issue. I see it as a wash.
"...we have failed at or near the $2B market cap range before."
True and it also bares repeating, If/when the converts are redeemed for stock the market cap will jump by around $450 M overnight. What's different this time is that the fundamental underpinnings are much more substantial this time around. The recent cycling has presented some nice daytrading opportunities which I have been exploiting. I'm not going to list them again, but there are significant upcoming news events which should keep the rally running for at least a few more months.
"Please tell me this is BS. They are saying Cabozantinim failed to achieve overall survival. What is going on?"
As John Wayne said to Robert Stack in "The High and the Mighty" as he slapped some sense into him; "Get a hold of yourself!" Go to the Exelixis website and carefully and sequentially read through about 4 years of press releases. Then, if you have specific questions, come back and ask them.
"Looks like that trial failed."
They sat on the data set a long time and now it's clear why. They were looking hard for any silver lining they could find to rationalize the failure. They blamed it on an imposed clinical hold that screwed up the powering assumptions for the trial and they propose to "fix it" with a subsequent analysis to collect more mature data. They lost and are looking for style points.
"Did FDA approve nivo/ipi for NSCLC?"
"Is P3 ongoing? Sorry to pester you but that info isn't popping out on my initial search and you or bif might know."
They have various N/I trials underway in NSCLC and small cell disease in both frontline and second line indications. The only approval so far is melanoma.
BMS went straight from their phase 1 to the phase 3 trial. The phase 1 was in a mostly 2nd line setting and showed a 43% ORR at the relevant dose. Very toxic, but there is a definite benefit to the fortunate responders and I expect to see a handful of durable complete responses. This is just a wag, but my guess is that the fist interim will be at 30-40% of OS events and will occur May 2017 +/-. If CaboSun is filable, that should give Cabo some time with frontline RCC all to itself.
"Results: 21 and 23 pts were randomized to the N3 + I1 and N1 + I3 arms, respectively. Most pts (n = 35; 80%) had prior systemic therapy (N3 + I1: 17; N1 + I3: 18). Treatment-related adverse events (AEs) were seen in 39 pts (89%); 8 pts (18%; N3 + I1: 2; N1 + I3: 6) discontinued due to related AEs. Grade 3-4-related AEs occurred in 20 pts (46%; N3 + I1: 6; N1 + I3: 14), most commonly ↑ lipase (21%, n = 9), ↑ ALT (14%, n = 6), diarrhea (9%, n = 4), and ↑ AST (7%, n = 3). No grade 3-4 pneumonitis was seen. Objective response rate (ORR) was 43% (N3 + I1) and 48% (N1 + I3); median duration of response (DOR) was 31.1 wk (7 ongoing) in N3 + I1 and not reached (9 ongoing) in N1 + I3 (Table). Responses occurred by first tumor assessment (wk 6) in 44% of pts in the N3 + I1 arm and 55% of pts in the N1 + I3 arm. Stable disease (SD) as best overall response was seen in 5 (24%) (N3 + I1) and 8 (35%) (N1 + I3) pts.
BMS has an ongoing Nivo/Ipi trial in frontline RCC. It is a 1000+ patient trial and it reached full enrolment last April. BMS designs their trials with interims so this could be over fairly soon. I would not expect BMS to cosponsor any other Nivo combinations in RCC.
"Adjuvant Sunitinib Improves DFS in Renal Cell Carcinoma" at Onclive.
There is more to this story than the initial report. I doubt that there will be an NDA filed, and if there is, that will result in an approval. I just don't see a role for a VEGF TKI in the adjuvant setting.
"..or do we expect to see the price going down in the short term with no near term catalysts."
I disagree with the premise that there are no near term catalysts. Fifteen more trading days above $6.91 and the converts become callable. The next quarterly conference call will give the first indication of the commercial viability of Cabo in RCC. Then ESMO comes in October with the first data on Cabo/Nivo + / - Ipi and perhaps CaboSun details. As to whether you should buy at $8, that's up to you.
"In the posted article "The Reason Why Exelixis Skyrocketed 20.5% in June" it clearly states that BMY and EXEL are running a joint trial on the Cabo- Opdivo combination."
Very misleading. BMS is "running" many, many Opdivo trials. The Apolo trial you are referring to is not one of them. The Apolo trial is sponsored by the National Cancer Institute and BMY's and EXEL's level of participation is limited to providing the drugs used. BMY in fact is running a phase 3 trial in frontline RCC testing a Nivo/Ipi combination vs std of care sorafenib. Commercially, BMY would like for that trial to be the final answer for frontline RCC.
If you read his piece carefully, there is no Meteor/Cabosun mix up, no mistake. He is attributing the recent rally to Cabosun. He clearly understands that the recent FDA approval was in 2nd line RCC and Cabosun is in a first line indication. You can ding him for giving a shallow answer to a complex question, but he got the basic facts correct. AF is Yahoo message board Urban Legend. The same crowd that embraced the Dendreon Deep Capture piece sees him as a mouthpiece for hedge community.
"Wall Street's outlook for the kidney cancer drug Cabometyx has brightened since the reporting in May of positive results from the phase II "CABOSUN" study in which Cabometyx demonstrated superiority over Sutent (progression-free survival) in first-line kidney cancer patients. In June at the ASCO annual meeting, Exelixis presented the positive overall survival data from the Cabometyx study in second-line kidney cancer. This study formed the basis of the drug's U.S. approval in April."
Want death panels here too? Vote..."
Please, you've posted here regularly enough to realize that the consensus opinion is that this is not a good venue for politics. You certainly have the right to post any message you want and neither I nor anyone else can compel you to restrain yourself, but we would certainly appreciate your voluntary cooperation in doing so.
"So it would seem that a rising stock price at this time could actually cost EXEL more money when EXEL decides to call or convert the converts. Is this inference correct?"
Only if all or part of the redemption is cash instead of stock.
"That is, upon conversion of the notes, you will receive, at our election, cash, shares of our common stock or a combination of cash and shares of our common stock. In the event that we elect cash settlement or combination settlement, the consideration that you will receive upon conversion will be based upon the volume weighted average prices of our common stock for each of the 50 trading..."