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AmeriGas Partners LP Message Board

eskimo_pie22 2341 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 3, 2015 8:13 AM Member since: Feb 5, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Injection Estimates

    by hjohn529 Dec 3, 2015 7:53 AM
    eskimo_pie22 eskimo_pie22 Dec 3, 2015 8:13 AM Flag

    -50+- seems beyond reach to me so I think we are setup for disapointment but I think anything negative is gonna produce a short term rally in a downward channel.

  • Reply to


    by billythart Dec 3, 2015 6:06 AM
    eskimo_pie22 eskimo_pie22 Dec 3, 2015 8:10 AM Flag

    hey billy, no one gonna keep to the deal. at this rate we gonna run out of places to store it. the opec goal is to deliver a fatal blow to canadian tar sands from exporting. so far its working.

  • north and west of NYC we should be seeing wet snows by now and we are still cutting green grass as we roll into December. weather folks feel strong el nino is doing its best of blocking jet stream to setup for north south flow so we gonna stay mild. the temps and the glut ....eskimo forecasting occasional gas rally in a sideways to downward sloping channel for next 6 month+. went golfing in shorts on thanksgiving.

    if things dont change we gonna see a 1 handle on gas soon. hope that I'm wrong.

  • eskimo_pie22 by eskimo_pie22 Nov 25, 2015 12:39 PM Flag

    not good for prices to move up. another week shot and another week shorter for the drawdown. negative withdrawls are way overdue.. if we get a weak winter then we could closeout april with enormous amount of gas. contract pricing and monthly resets are also gonna challenge the long side.

  • Reply to

    The big 4 TCF storage

    by waynecdn Nov 19, 2015 10:43 AM
    eskimo_pie22 eskimo_pie22 Nov 19, 2015 11:02 AM Flag

    wayne, what do you mean storage numbers were wrong last week?

  • Reply to

    next one has to be negative draw

    by eskimo_pie22 Nov 16, 2015 3:33 PM
    eskimo_pie22 eskimo_pie22 Nov 19, 2015 10:41 AM Flag

    just bumping to the top, NG train is late by over a week. lets see what they do with todays +15. maybe we can turn this into a rally and I hope next weeks is negative. going into demand season 4 TCF is a lot of gas.

  • statistically, we are a week overdue for the start of negative withdrawls. based on the weather and the ginormous daily production I cant see how we dont see a negative withdrawl for a couple of weeks yet.

  • Reply to


    by theblueridgetrader Nov 12, 2015 11:02 AM
    eskimo_pie22 eskimo_pie22 Nov 12, 2015 11:35 AM Flag

    with things in slowmo mode thats a solid strategy. I've given up on gas and been trading AAPL calls and puts. theres some life over there. we have customers that are telling me they can lock into 12 month gas supply contracts for their homes at .04 cents commodity charge. Things must be severly hedged for suppliers to offer those deals. avg homeowner gonna get away with winter gas bills less than 100 a month.

  • Reply to


    by theblueridgetrader Nov 12, 2015 11:02 AM
    eskimo_pie22 eskimo_pie22 Nov 12, 2015 11:16 AM Flag

    hey blue, I was wondering what the 4.2 was. amazing oil continues at historical 80 years capacity highs and yet it can rally. not so much with natty. they just keep their foot on her neck.

  • eskimo_pie22 by eskimo_pie22 Nov 12, 2015 11:04 AM Flag

    on this fridays report. gas got a stay of execution this week. historically, the first week of nov is when we start to see -negative withdrawls. so if it misses its gonna get ugly. I have a small handful of april calls so no axe to grind here. if she misses I still think gas 2.0 will be severely re-tested. or its a good time for a short squeeze.which seems overdue.

  • Reply to

    NG below $2 in December

    by virtualgh0st Nov 2, 2015 7:58 AM
    eskimo_pie22 eskimo_pie22 Nov 2, 2015 9:04 AM Flag

    right, just adding you get to trade the same downward range twice. same setup now for jan.

  • Reply to

    NG below $2 in December

    by virtualgh0st Nov 2, 2015 7:58 AM
    eskimo_pie22 eskimo_pie22 Nov 2, 2015 8:50 AM Flag

    have to agree. in my mind we are below 2.0 due to the technicalities of the nov to dec price roll. if the dec contract was not priced about .20 cents higher during the roll then we are there now and trading an artificial plateau

  • eskimo_pie22 by eskimo_pie22 Nov 2, 2015 8:42 AM Flag

    just wanted to say hello to my fellow gas trading warriors. other than 10 UNG 12 buck calls for april (what was I thinking) I have no gas position. Just cant see how this wont pass sub gas 2.0. I read an earlier post, not much more happening than brief rallys in an overall downward range. Seems like the Anadarkos and the CHKs of the world are happy just gonna keep pumping up storage. williams new lines feeding NYC and north are full continously.

    Conversion business is strong but has pulled back somewhat with oils fall, oil at $1.50 per 100K btu is still more expensive than natty at 1.00 (fully loaded with commodity, dist and other customer charges).

    anyway hope all is well and if you got thought on gas let me know.

  • eskimo_pie22 by eskimo_pie22 Sep 17, 2015 4:19 PM Flag

    kinda rough across the board. triple witching on friday so I hope netty can pull a rabbit out of the hat overnight. IMHO no move by the fed cements the china slowdown for some time.

  • I'll probably be selling today. nice couple of day run on no news-algo created short squeeze. The PE at 233 really bothers me as well. Throw in the fed and citron and zacks article is enough of a signal for me to lighten up. but who knows maybe we get another squeeze today.

  • Reply to

    in 12 months

    by eskimo_pie22 Jun 4, 2015 9:23 AM
    eskimo_pie22 eskimo_pie22 Jun 4, 2015 3:17 PM Flag

    I can't see how we don't re-test gas 2.0 or something close-its commodity rules. also, if the 2016 political winds shift on coal then gas gonna be held up.

  • Reply to

    in 12 months

    by eskimo_pie22 Jun 4, 2015 9:23 AM
    eskimo_pie22 eskimo_pie22 Jun 4, 2015 3:01 PM Flag

    hey black good to had from you, doing good over here. yes we are extreme backlogged in conversions. no italy for me this year, just spent 6mo in the keys and bahamas. been a PPL holder for a long time. this is gonna fly or get bought. solid PPL margins are screaming to private equity. If you wanted to sell a company like PPL you'd have to decouple power gen first.

  • eskimo_pie22 by eskimo_pie22 Jun 4, 2015 9:23 AM Flag

    PPL either gonna look like a decent toll road model like ENB or get bought out. Investors hated ENB for its model when first attempted but after posting solid results consisiently it has done well. Anyone got any serious thoughts feel free to let them rip.

    I'd add that uploading a lot of coal generation is pretty smart as coal gets regulated into oblivion. just look at btu,or aci or patriot.

  • eskimo_pie22 by eskimo_pie22 Jun 4, 2015 9:15 AM Flag

    hope everyone is well. 6 months in the keys and bahamas. just awesome.

    I'm a gas bull but on gas I can't see how we don't end up re-testing gas 2.0. energy complex is a mess. coal companies going bankrupt, oil pretty beat up, so I'm not too optimistic about gas making any kind of a run anytime soon. rig count cuts are there but doesn't seem to affect supply much.

    anyway go ahead and shoot some holes in this

  • Reply to

    eskimo goin south

    by eskimo_pie22 Feb 26, 2015 7:01 PM
    eskimo_pie22 eskimo_pie22 Feb 27, 2015 8:57 AM Flag

    back at you.."Voler bene" (one of my favs means i wish you well)

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