Is it 10%? Anybody know?
Could that happen?
If there is a blowoff up, 2200 would probably be the max. But the downside risk may be 1400 (140 SPY) by late October, so the reward/risk clearly favors the bears.
Only question is do we crash in the next two weeks or next two months. Slim chance of a blowoff ove up into August, then crash. 1929-1987 scenario. But the plunge could also happen in days.
Too much complacency.
He has flipped to the buy side. I don't know if that is good or bad, but the dude has millions of sources. He says it is a steal at the current low price.
CNBC, everywhere. Where there's smoke, there's fire? Anyway, bought some $20 far out calls just in case it happens. Not betting the farm, but putting my toe in the water.
Even the best stocks correct from time to time. After a better than 100% rally over the last year or two, a 10 or 20% correction shouldn't be a shock.
Venezuela, Nigeria. Plus you can't call the P. Gulf exactly worry free. Plus shale oil is plunging, plus demand is strong, plus so much skepticism over the rally. I see another 25-40% up in crude oil as likely.
If he is lying, they could seize Ackman's money.
1. Venezuela is dissolving into chaos. A shutdown in oil at least for a while is not out of the question. Strikes are possible. Also trouble in Nigeria.
2. U.S. shale oil production is falling preciptously.
3. Tensions in Middle East could ratchet up.
Like I said, oil bears are taking a HUGE risk.
Maybe. Housing may have peaked.