Another concern is funding for a Phase 3. Either it will be through a partnership or dilution. The wording in the press release that are starting to plan for preparation of a Phase 3 IMO doesn't sound like a partnership is imminent, but we know they can tap into Lincoln Park anytime. Dilution is not the end of the world but it definitely can hit shareholders pretty hard. ADXS is my other stock - the company has had significant progress, but is well below the $12 mark that $150 million in dilution took place under the current CEO. It should be much higher than that moving forward, but my point is when a company has little cash dilution is a concern at least short-term.
Just the statement on releasing data by the end of the first quarter, then backtracking on that. Also on the 5-week data, there was emphasis on the much stronger P300 value, which actually went down in the 31-week data, so is that no longer an attribute of the construct. Now with today PR, this limited P2 trial was not enough to produce meaningful data supposedly and the doses were not optimized, but my understanding that the trial has been adaptive all along and they have adjusted doses accordingly. So the theory is that a P3 will mazimize the efficacy, but statistically usually when positive data in a small trial is translated into a much larger P3 the large P3 shows weaker results. So here in P2 we have data simply maintains SOC/baseline, to me that put more risk in the P3 results.
You raise a good point. There are a number of indications the company is targeting. I very well may regret my decision to sell now. I just think the company's lack of transparency and inconsistent statements by the CEO around the data can be a slippery. I'm actually torn, because it looks like the platform could be a unique new way to approach these diseases.
Mpreorder, no issues with your points there. I think there's a lot of corporate "welfare" going on in general whether its company's milking tax loopholes or pharmas overcharging insurance companies. It just scares me when politicians start threatening direct price controls on the private sector. If anything, I think the insurance companies should push back on reimbursements, which they have to a certain extent. That's one reason I think ADXS ultimately will be a very competitive force and meaningful contribution to cancer treatment because it's much cheaper to manufacture than treatments like DNDN's that $100k a year.
I sold this morning. Admittedly, I had high hopes for this company, but the latest data while not a failure wasn't strong enough for me to justify maintaining risk in the company. Also, one thing that bothers me is Missling originally stated the company would release the data by the end of the first quarter then when that passed he claimed the data was being further analyzed and did not have it available. I had thought it was because he had learned from the last attack and was going to present irrefutable data that the shorts could not distort. However, it appears in hindsight that the delay in the data release was because the data was not particularly good so the company wanted to see how they could further analyze to spin it any differently. Unfortunately, this created built up expectations only to be disappointed. All and all, good experience as an investor, not complaining. I made $5k this year in AVXL, although if I had sold everything above $7 I would have made $70k. My original thesis was that based on the stellar 5-week data the company was severely undervalued and low risk. Given this updated data, IMO the valuation doesn't look as cheap and the risk is higher. GLTA
Mpreoder, not going to argue against the premise of the book, as I am not familiar, but don't you agree that specifically regarding biotech stocks, Hillary will be worse for biotech investors given that she has made comments specifically targeting the sector and threatening additional price controls. Regardless of one's overall political views on either candidate, I think it's safe to say that a Clinton Presidency is probably not the best for the interests of the biotech industry and returns of biotech investors. I'm not saying that's the only thing ADXS or biotech investors care about or should care about, but nonetheless I think at the end of the day our investment value in ADXS would be lower in a Clinton Administration than Trump Administration.
People who drive 9 year old Audis are those who can't afford to buy a new one but want to be seen in a upscale car for the image. Folks who have 5 million buy the new one.
Alan, I would personally like to share some of my ADXS gains with Viczero because he is a humble kind- hearted gentleman respectful of the opinions of his fellow investors.
Alan, in the spirit of Hillary if ADXS hits it big we should all split our profits evenly regardless of the size of our position. Better yet, we should pay additional capital gains our on hard earned money to redistribute the fruits of our investment.
Do you seriously own $22k shares? You are one of the biggest bashers of this stock. I find it hard to believe you would actually own shares. Or maybe relative to your supposed 500k net worth or whatever it is, $22k is chump change you can throw away into a worthless stock.
Blinn, Adage's cost basis is higher than $7. Adage participated in all of the multiple dillutions under DO, maybe with the expectation of the first one. I did an approximate calculation of the weighted average share price across of a Dan's secondary offerings and private placement and came up with a share price of $11 to $12.
I'm actually feeling pretty stupid now, sold some at the end of the day but still own a load. Ignatius, I see you've changed sentiment as well. We were wrong on this company. There were some red flags but I chose to ignore them thinking the 5 week data was indisputable and would persist. In looking back, one thing that bothers me (i.e., a red flag) was the way Missling communicated originally that the extended data would be released by the end of the first quarter. Then when that time came, the company responded that they didn't have the data as it was being analyzed externally for PKPD (or whatever that is) and that it would be released when they had it. Now, it would appear, they got the data and realized it wasn't great so tried to "analyze" it more to see if there was a better way to spin it. It kind of reminds me of Tom Moore's final mistake at ADXS that led to the downward spiral when he had originally said he would release the CIN trial data but then after the date past he said it was being analyzed externally so he didn't know what it was yet, then finally he came clean and said the trial was being halted because the data was unreadable as too many patients had dropped out. With AVXL' I think Missling's stalling on releasing the data then finally releasing data that obviously wasn't as good as people expected reduces his credibility and trustworthiness. I should have sold yesterday instead of bought more.
I think the long-term capital gains holding tax (i.e., greater than a year holding) may be one reason shorts have not covered. It appears short interests spiked up around a year ago into the clinical hold in October. So as the year rolls off, moving forward we may see more short covering.
While I wish the data has been stronger, it still appears encouraging and may be better than SOC with the added benefit of having a greater impact on mood/depression. I think the sell-off is an over-reaction. The wildcard is will we see a partnership soon, hope so.
Very true, Missling's "incentive comp" truly incentivizes him to work to generated shareholder value, more commendable than Dan O'Connor at ADXS who insisted on RSUs that have value whether or not he gets the share price up.
While I respect your honesty in telling us you sold, you basically showed your overly confident predictions and conviction in your investment was based on nothing more than short-term momentum trading.
Yes, but all the other markers besides P300 remained above baseline at 31 weeks. Below 5 weeks, yes, but above baseline so still an improvement as a result of the AVXL treatment.