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Motorola Mobility Holdings, Inc. Message Board

frbohnen 22 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 12, 2016 3:16 PM Member since: Jul 17, 2007
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  • Reply to

    Another 52 week high

    by gamma55 Jul 11, 2016 12:20 PM
    frbohnen frbohnen Jul 12, 2016 3:16 PM Flag

    Evolve stage 2 continues to do well in steam, perhaps this has added the umph so far this week, but who knows, decent volume

  • Reply to

    Welp . . . .

    by speculawyer9 Jun 24, 2016 4:00 PM
    frbohnen frbohnen Jun 27, 2016 10:32 AM Flag

    @sparky

    Can you explain to me how convertible debt issued 20 points ago and which converts to equity 15 points ago and which is fully accounted for in the share count per SarbOx/GAAP is affected by today's price movement.

    The convertible debt is DEEP in the money and fully accounted for.

  • Reply to

    Welp . . . .

    by speculawyer9 Jun 24, 2016 4:00 PM
    frbohnen frbohnen Jun 25, 2016 1:02 AM Flag

    The rent for their 72,500 square feet in the UK just got a lot more affordable as well. unfortunately locked into the leases until 2022/2024, maybe explains why the stock is down so much (although i'm skeptical given ATVI/EA down roughly the same). Perhaps their is a "brexit clause" haha. Still trying to figure out why vg sector was hit so hard today, perhaps people just rotating to safety, who knows. Video game software sales historically have been rather resilient to recessions.

    roughly 30% of revenue comes from Europe per annual report, who knows what the UK represents (sales now transfer to less dollars), but overall I'm licking my chops, solid FY17 guidance, RDR2 no doubt is announced soon in my opinion. I like your RDR remaster timeline to coincide with holidays/RDR2 announcement. Rarely trade, but may look to put one on (jan17 calls look appealing, but far more risky than just adding to the position)

    200 DMA at $34.50, has acted as great support for nearly 4 years, and I don't think the uptrend is over (rumored xbox scorpio capable of running VR, this console cycle may have some legs). Getting close to a great support level FWIW

  • Reply to

    Strange RDR rumor . . .

    by speculawyer9 Jun 15, 2016 1:09 PM
    frbohnen frbohnen Jun 15, 2016 11:57 PM Flag

    I doubled down after the newton tragedy. first amendment will remain intact. The video game ban argument has been made about violent music, books, television, movies, etc.

    Very respectable of mgmt to pull the video if rumors are true

  • Reply to

    Strange RDR rumor . . .

    by speculawyer9 Jun 15, 2016 1:09 PM
    frbohnen frbohnen Jun 15, 2016 11:56 PM Flag

    Non-Disclosure Agreement, no way are they able to acknowledge the game prior to rockstar

  • Reply to

    Check out the latest Mafia 3 trailer

    by speculawyer9 Jun 14, 2016 12:23 AM
    frbohnen frbohnen Jun 15, 2016 11:44 AM Flag

    I'm excited for the storyline. Haden Blackman's resume (star wars/DC) indicates to me the guy is incredibly creative. A great opportunity to refresh a potentially great franchise.

  • frbohnen frbohnen Jun 7, 2016 2:41 PM Flag

    A great show already, an RDR2 teaser video to be the cherry on-top, wow TTWO looks like a true contender to EA/ATVI

  • frbohnen frbohnen Jun 7, 2016 12:10 PM Flag

    On a side note, technically speaking we are in uncharted waters. All time highs, who knows we're long term/big holders begin to take a little prophet. Technicians seem to love stocks on the all-time high list

  • frbohnen frbohnen Jun 7, 2016 12:09 PM Flag

    I certainly hope so, but I am skeptical. Zelnick could have just meant "mafia 3 will be at E3 in a very big way", who knows. Also, Rockstar is not very fond of E3. A large RDR unveil could very well take attention away from Mafia3. I could certainly see an RDR remaster, I think that is a strategy that makes since and you've been behind for quite awhile. Perhaps we find out what Judas is?

    Certainly excited for E3 this year, but given Zelnick's conservative style, who knows what "in a big way" truly means

  • frbohnen frbohnen Jun 7, 2016 11:55 AM Flag

    I agree spec, even the mighty DIS flopped two weekends ago with the new Alice movie, and routinely flops a couple times a year. Flops are part of the business, even for amazing mgmt teams.

    From an investors perspective mobile looks like a frickin #$%$ shot. rovio, zynga, gluu, yikes! Even KING plunged +50% post IPO and was acquired +20% below IPO price. Very dicey industry.

  • frbohnen frbohnen Jun 6, 2016 12:38 PM Flag

    I don't know spec, from were I'm sitting it's pretty clear. EA has had a bit of an identity crisis, 3 CEOs in the past 4 years, can't make up its mind if it's future is consoles or iPhones. ATVI has amassed 6 BILLION dollars of debt in mere 3.5 years, with its fight with vivendi, and it's spending spree, openly disclosing spending billions on destiny and overwatch (formerly project Titan), buying KING, ATVI's balance sheet is being compromised as the company desperately tries to replace WoW/CoD revenue. To each their own

  • frbohnen frbohnen Jun 4, 2016 12:30 AM Flag

    Best in class mgmt by far

  • frbohnen frbohnen May 20, 2016 6:27 PM Flag

    took your advice, the troll showed up today ignorant as ever, shameless.... he is now officially ignored

    kinda feel bad for the guy, maybe he's going through some dark times, he is so full of RAGE!!!!

    As Zelnick like's to regularly say, Video Games are the only growth area in Media. This one is very long hold for me.

  • frbohnen frbohnen May 19, 2016 2:39 PM Flag

    i call him the "board troll", these trolls pop up from time to time, usually shamefully go away when they have utterly lost face. i am hoping this earnings release has been the windfall moment for MMX as once again he couldn't have been more wrong (although i am not holding my breath)

    if you dig back into his thread long enough, you will notice he sold a "substantial portion" @$22. Meaning either his recent posts are full of it or he is entirely full of it (i believe the latter).

    the fool has been consistently wrong for well over a year. good luck with your long Popps, i think the whole sector (video game software) is in the sweet spot. I think VR is the impetus for a shorter hardware cycle this generation which I believe bodes well going forward for the industry.

    for what it's worth, video game software sales seem to have some cyclicality to them. sales appear to taper off the longer we stay in a hardware generation. we are in the early/mid innings of this generation, and again VR is the impetus to shorten the cycle this time around.

  • Reply to

    TTWO MGMT BLEW IT...

    by mmxliv652 May 18, 2016 5:17 PM
    frbohnen frbohnen May 18, 2016 5:36 PM Flag

    I'm really glad the board amateur came out today....

    FY16, mgmt guided for $1.00 EPS, delivered $1.96
    FY15, mgmt guided for $1.05 EPS, delivered $1.98

    Company guides for FY17 at $1.25 EPS (keep in mind an increase vs FY15/16 guidance) and chicken little peaks his head out from underneath his rock....

    MMX, it is beyond me how you STILL TAKE GUIDANCE AT FACE VALUE. MGMT is perpetually conservative, GET IT? PROBABLY NOT.......

  • Reply to

    TTWO MGMT BLEW IT...

    by mmxliv652 May 18, 2016 5:17 PM
    frbohnen frbohnen May 18, 2016 5:28 PM Flag

    Back to reality Chicken Little....

    Stock is less than 10% away from ALL-TIME HIGHS, mgmt has done a fine job enhancing shareholder value, I'm up over 200% personally and happy as a clam with mgmt.

    Mr. Market says you have been and continue to be WRONG

  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by sshah2946 May 15, 2016 11:04 AM
    frbohnen frbohnen May 18, 2016 4:31 PM Flag

    Huge beat, decent guidance. $1.25 FY17 likely translates into something well over $1.50

    Revenue guiding to grow substantially, leaves me fairly optimistic about both a) initial Mafia 3 read b) GTAO

    Unfortunately with that guidance RDR2 is not in the cards for FY17.

    Here's the earnings run down last 3 years. EPS ~$4 FY14, ~$2 FY15, ~$2FY16, ~$1.50FY17 (estimate given conservative guidance). $9.50 over 4 years. ~$2.38. At of close today, TTWO trades at 15X average EPS, far below the industry average of 20X EPS. I'm fairly confident RDR2 will be in FY18 (i.e. earnings upside), and GTA6 has got to be deep in the pipeline by FY18. Shares still look cheap in my opinion.

  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by sshah2946 May 15, 2016 11:04 AM
    frbohnen frbohnen May 18, 2016 12:33 PM Flag

    @spec

    Battleborn launched in FY17 spec, it will not impact this Q earnings.

    earnings will easily beat estimates in my opinion. i think EA/ATVI proved the retail channels are robust. FY17 guidance (like always) is the big takeaway in 4Q, and Battleborn could be off to a better start

    anything well north of $2 EPS, perhaps it's safe to say RDR2 will be launching in March quarter as you desire. Even a guided for ~$1.5 I'm fine with, given mgmt conservative guidance as of late $1.50 translates into $1.8+

    If $2 is recurrent $2+$2 RDR Year, $2+$4 GTA Year, the shares look pretty cheap hear (particularly compared to EA/ATVI). Z's cost controls may be paying fruitful dividends.

  • Reply to

    Over 5 million HABT shares short?

    by tomtom2018 Mar 13, 2016 7:04 AM
    frbohnen frbohnen May 7, 2016 3:22 PM Flag

    I purchased a small position ~2% of my portfolio @17.10 after what I percieved as a "blowout" (technical) on April 25, April 26 saw little volume at the open, the stock started to jump on high volume and I tagged along.

    Earnings, to me, saw a short squeeze as the news was fine. The following days were disheartening, clearly there are still plenty of shorts in the water (although it is insane to think that nearly half the shares are sold short, potential for a huge short squeeze, a TON of people need to buy the stock to close there short = pent up demand)

    I like technicals to help me pick an entry but I prefer fundamentals. HABT is trading at 50X 2016 earnings estimates. I am ok with that. This is a company that has less than 150 stores but sees potential foot print in excess of 2000 stores (per conference call). Talk about a some serious growth potential. When you factor in depreciation (lots of costs associated with rapid store growth), the company looks even cheaper, at 12X EBITDA, HABT trades at only a slight premium to the industry. The company has negligible debt.

    But like I said, price action post earnings has not been great. I'm looking to add, and I don't think there is any need to rush in. I am OK with HABT representing ~10% of my portfolio going forward, but for now I am just going to be patient.

    Best of luck vestor, thank you for your kind words. If you dollar cost average with the same $ amount for the next year I think you will be very happy with your position in the long run and I think is a great strategy (with the same $ amount you buy more low and fewer high, thus automatically lowering your average purchase price).

  • Reply to

    Battleborn Reviews

    by budfockz May 2, 2016 9:08 AM
    frbohnen frbohnen May 6, 2016 3:49 PM Flag

    thumbs up for the comedy spec, you got a chuckle out of me

    although the early reviews were misleading (perhaps they already had their mind made up), i think it is still a bit early. Currently PC still stands at 83, XONE 79, and of course PS4 poorly 69, but we only have a fraction of the reviews in. I optimistically hope we settle somewhere in the mid 70s?

    of the reviews, questions abound about the artwork/single player/story, but even most of the negative ones seem pretty upbeat about the gameplay and especially multiplayer. i was really shocked to see perennial ATVI fanboy Paul Tassi even write a somewhat upbeat reveiw (he had been bashing the title ever since Overwatch was announced).

    if we take borderlands for example (PC metacritic 81), borderlands 2 was lightyears ahead. the game was externally developed (hopefully mitigating some of the financial risk). perhaps it is sticky enough to work out the rough patches and the gameplay is fresh enough to avoid aborting the stilborn ;-)

    i think the industry right now is wrestling with balancing multiplayer with campaign. Star Wars, Evolve, and Titanfall all were heavily criticized for the $60 price tag and lack of single player (all games recieving far lower customer reviews than critic reviews on metacritic). Battleborn again is in this quagmire, but is trying to do both, and customer reviews are at or better than critic reviews thus far on metacritic. This game atleast seems to be better recieved by customers than Star Wars, Evolve, or Titanfall.

    Certainly not a blockbuster, but coming from the eternal board optimist, I think it has a chance.

    on a side note, perhaps ATVI showed the street the sector is on a nice growth runway (i think it helps explain why were up today). GTAV outsold COD for many months, NBA was high the NPD as well. Coupled with digital sales, I expect another easy beat. Like you, I am very excited about Mafia, and Kobe/NBA is unquestionably a homerun, future looks bright