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Gogo Inc. Message Board

fundmanager1 1163 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 2, 2015 1:01 AM Member since: Apr 6, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Wedbush Analyst DEFENDS GPRO in WSJ Article!

    by fundmanager1 Sep 2, 2015 12:49 AM
    fundmanager1 fundmanager1 Sep 2, 2015 1:01 AM Flag

    You sound worried, shortie... Weak arguments like yours are always based on Ad hom attacks on the messenger.

    Next time, respond to the CONTENT of the post, specifically Wedbushes remarks addressing Gopros new product revs.

  • By Maureen Farrell

    GoPro Inc.’s shares fell by more than 9% Tuesday after a research analyst warned that there could be risks to the wearable-camera maker’s forthcoming third-quarter results.

    Cleveland Research analyst Benjamin Bollin released a report saying that demand for GoPro’s items appears to be falling below the company’s estimates. According to several individuals who read the report, Mr. Bollin said that the supply chain appears to be flat for the quarter, most likely because GoPro is having trouble selling its wares to customers.

    Cleveland Research declined to provide a copy of the report to MoneyBeat citing company policy.

    Mr. Bollin’s report also spooked investors in Ambarella Inc., one of GoPro’s key suppliers. Ambarella’s stock was down by nearly 7% Tuesday. The company reports results after the close Tuesday.

    GoPro did not respond to a request for comment. GoPro reported second-quarter earnings in late July.

    Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter called the sell-off in GoPro shares overdone. He noted that GoPro launched new products in early July, and those initial shipments should add enough new sales to lift the company’s quarterly revenues. If the supply chain appears to be flat now, it could be due to a build up of supply in May and June that stayed flat because GoPro launched new products.

  • The concern with AMBA is their wearable action camera revs are to be down slightly from Q2 to Q3 for AMBA. AMBA had a fabulous Q2 report due to the many video chips they sold, mostly to GPRO. So AMBA's Q3 Guidance had no upside.

    BUT DON'T FORGET that AMBA was responding to GPRO's huge orders in Q2. NOW, in Q3, $GPRO is selling that inventory they made into products in Q3. GPRO's Q3 guidance 6 weeks ago was EXCELLENT and propelled the stock to $65. That guidance probably hasn't changed.

    CONCLUSION: AMBA holders should buy GPRO because GPRO's Q3 will be better than AMBA's.

    In addition, there is the October Launch of GPRO's HERO 5 which should generate a buzz for GPRO.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • There is a lag from when AMBA sells chips to when they arrive in the distribution channels as GoPRO cameras.

  • Reply to

    Hasn't Cramer been pumping AMBA????

    by sk_wilson Sep 1, 2015 6:37 PM
    fundmanager1 fundmanager1 Sep 1, 2015 8:55 PM Flag

    Actually GPRO BEAT estimates in their Q2 report and RALLIED to $65.

    They're being unfairly punished here because GPRO is now selling that INVENTORY BULGE that AMBA created for them in Q2. That made for a good Q2 for AMBA and will make a good Q3 for GPRO.

    If you're selling AMBA tomorrow, buy GPRO for their Q3 that includes the Q2 inventory bulge from AMBA.

  • AMBA's Wearable action camera revs to be down slightly from Q2 to Q3 for AMBA.

    BUT DON'T FORGET that AMBA supplied GPRO in Q2. In Q3 $GPRO is NOW selling that inventory as products in Q3. GPRO's Q3 guidance 6 weeks ago was excellent and propelled the stock to $65.

    Suggest all AMBA holders should buy GPRO because GPRO's Q3 will be better than AMBA's.

    In addition, there is the October Launch of GPRO's HERO 5 which should generate a buzz for GPRO.

  • fundmanager1 fundmanager1 Sep 1, 2015 1:08 PM Flag

    Looks like a bottom is in. When market did one more leg down to new intraday lows, GPRO held the line.

  • fundmanager1 fundmanager1 Sep 1, 2015 11:14 AM Flag

    Short will find another sandbox to play in after today.

  • --GoPro Inc GPRO 6.13% shares declined more than 27 percent year-to-date and are currently significantly below their 52-week high of $98.47.
    --Pacific Crest’s Brad Erickson maintained a Sector Weight rating for the company.
    --GoPro’s current valuation appears tempting, Erickson said, citing the expected strong first-half performance.

    Analyst Brad Erickson mentioned that August channel checks in the US had provided positive feedback.

    “Based on early holiday channel fill and GoPro's recent body language at our Vail conference, we think a high-end holiday refresh is unlikely, which could wind up being positive for GPRO if upside continues.”

    Related Link: Stifel Maintains Buy On Ambarella Ahead Of Q2 Results, Sees Recent Sell-Off 'Overreaction'

    Erickson believes that GoPro is “beginning to build inventory a bit sooner than last year in front of the all-important holiday.” He added, however, that the current levels seemed fine, given that inventory reached over three weeks last year, and the quarter still seemed to be tracking “towards some upside.”

    GoPro’s upside this year may be driven by better-than-expected demand for the company’s products and the expected increase in European shipments of Hero 4, the Pacific Crest stated.

  • fundmanager1 fundmanager1 Aug 31, 2015 4:33 PM Flag

    You ask and you shall receive... Near the close, the company announced it. That will greatly assist GPRO in monetizing content. Let's see how the market digests this tomorrow. Analyst commentary will help.

  • Huge holiday build so far!!

    $AMBA is already rallying and $GPRO is next.

  • Because AMBA dropped from $120+ to the $80's, that generated a lot of margin calls 3 days ago for traders who bought on margin.

    Margin calls are due usually 3-4 days after the close on a big down day. That was 3 days ago, so today, there are a lot of forced liquidations causing the stock weakness, but that artificial (forced) selling pressure will be gone after tomorrow and the stock will get buoyant as traders look ahead to earnings.

  • Ambarella, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMBA) has seen a surge of over 173 percent in its share price over the past year, while declining 15 percent since August 20 .

    Stifel's Kevin Cassidy has maintained a Buy rating and $115 price target on Ambarella.

    Cassidy believes the recent sell-off was an overreaction and that the company's holds technology related leadership in video capture, compression, transmission and analytics.

    Analyst Kevin Cassidy expects the company to report strong year-on-year revenue growth when it reports its F2Q16 results on September 1 , along with upside potential in the drone and IP security markets.

    There have been some investor concerns regarding QUALCOMM, Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) targeting its "smartphone SoCs for drone applications, which has pressured the AMBA shares," the Stifel report said, adding that Qualcomm's SoC is expected to replace "the 4-5 microcontrollers used in controlling drones rather than Ambarella's video processor."

    Cassidy believes the 15 percent decline in the stock due to these fears is an overreaction, given that Qualcomm does not intend to compete head-to-head with Ambarella in HD and UltraHD motion video processing.

    In addition, Cassidy expects the company to report a 41 percent year-on-year increase in revenue for F3Q16, driven by seasonally stronger GoPro, Inc. (NASDAQ: GPRO) builds. There could also be potential upside to the EPS estimate for the quarter, driven by higher gross margin if drone sell-through exceeds expectations.

  • 7:10 am Best Buy beats by $0.15, beats on revs and comps; guides Q3 (BBY) :

    Reports Q2 (Jul) earnings of $0.49 per share, $0.15 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.34; revenues rose 0.8% year/year to $8.53 bln vs the $8.28 bln consensus.
    Comps +3.8% (+2.7% ex-100 bps impact from installment billing) vs. estimates near +1%; adj. operating margin +50 bps to 3.4%.
    "In the Domestic business, our comparable sales increased 2.7%, excluding the impact of installment billing, driven by continued strong performance in major appliances, large screen televisions and mobile phones. Online comparable sales increased 17.0% as our investments in new capabilities continued to drive increased traffic and higher conversion rates. We also saw industry revenue in the NPD-tracked categories, representing 65% of our revenue, improve from a decline of 5.3% in Q1 to a decline of 1.3%8 in Q2."
    Guidance: Co sees flat to negative low single digit rev growth and operating margin flat to -20 bps; in the domestic business, co sees flat to low single digit rev growth with flat operating margin driven by a higher gross profit rate offset by increased SG&A due to inflation and growth-related investments.
    Co sees no impact from recent volatility in financial markets.

  • Reply to

    275K Vol. At Noon ?? Baby Bear raid !!

    by leah9800 Aug 13, 2015 12:01 PM
    fundmanager1 fundmanager1 Aug 14, 2015 2:40 AM Flag

    Try again. From the Mar 3 2015 SeekingAlpha article:

    --"Last month, the company had blow-out earnings, beating estimates of 20 cents by 8 cents and posting 44% year-over-year revenue growth. The company also provided guidance for 2015 ahead of estimates.

    --The stock, which had gotten over $31 on the earnings report and guidance, took a tumble on the conference call when the company said that guidance was front-end loaded, since once the Rabobank contract is filled mid-year, it will lose that revenue. However, as the call went on, it was clarified that even ex-Rabobank, VDSI's backlog is higher than it was at the same time a year ago, and that the company expects to build a backlog through the year as it did in 2014."

  • fundmanager1 fundmanager1 Aug 13, 2015 1:11 AM Flag

    From BusinessInsider:

    New Cisco CEO hints at more acquisitions after company drops more than $700 million in July

    Eugene Kim

    Aug. 12, 2015, 7:35 PM

    Cisco has been on an acquisition tear recently, and it doesn’t seem like it’ll slow down any time soon.

    “We’re very acquisitive and we’ll continue to be acquisitive as we go forward, as we continue to build out our portfolio, especially in areas like software and security,” said Cisco CFO Kelly Kramer during its fourth quarter earnings call on Wednesday.
    __
    Good news for companies like VDSI

  • I moved assets into PANW from FEYE this morning before FEYE'S earnings.

    Look at the PANW chart and FEYE's chart. What a difference. FEYE has been lagging PANW for at least a month now as if someone knew about the CFO departure.

    PANW has a more stable chart, no CFO Departure.

  • More stable chart, no CFO Departure.

  • fundmanager1 fundmanager1 Jul 30, 2015 1:16 PM Flag

    Wow, that's foolish to short PANW!

    PANW is the strongest of all the cyber stocks - including FEYE. Look at the PANW chart and you'll see what I mean. It's got a very consistent diagonal trendline going UP and UP. PANW's only retracements have been to touch the 50-day EMA.

    FEYE's chart is weaker with the bizarre relative weakness in the past 1-2 months compared to PANW.

    I do agree that if DeWalt is showing up on MadMonkey with Cramer, he's got some bragging rights about earnings guidance and FEYE and the entire CYBER sector is going to soar tomorrow.

    PANW seems to be the more stable trading vehicle (for longs) than FEYE and that's totally clear from their respective charts

  • It seems FEYE Call Options have too much premium built in to the pricing in anticipation of earnings. That premium deflates IMMEDIATELY the day the earnings are released.

    So a good way to play FEYE earnings with Call Options is to buy PANW Calls instead because they don't have an earnings premium built in.

    If FEYE rallies hard on earnings report, PANW will too!

    Plus, Both FEYE & PANW have been sold off nicely. PANW is near its 50-Day EMA (exponential moving average).

    PANW ALWAYS bounces off its 50-Day EMA!!!

GOGO
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