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Olin Corp. Message Board

g_noh 53 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 8, 2016 2:31 PM Member since: Dec 21, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Back to Astra Zeneca's CC last week

    by justarook04 May 1, 2016 9:11 AM
    g_noh g_noh May 1, 2016 4:33 PM Flag

    It's pretty sad how tunnel-visioned, blind, biased, or silly biotech longs or pumpers can be. AZN is an $80 billion large-cap pharma giant with annual revenues of more than $23 billion. Why would the CEO or CFO waste time in a CC talking about a prospect that might add about $100 million to first-year sales???? It's really pathetic to see something positive for RLYP from this. Need to get real.

  • Reply to

    Back to Astra Zeneca's CC last week

    by justarook04 May 1, 2016 9:11 AM
    g_noh g_noh May 1, 2016 8:54 PM Flag

    companies report drug-related news when there is comprehensive news to report, not in CC

  • Reply to

    Back to Astra Zeneca's CC last week

    by justarook04 May 1, 2016 9:11 AM
    g_noh g_noh May 1, 2016 9:04 PM Flag

    have you heard that old wall street saw about a fool and his money...... being soon parted? "learning who to follow around here" ..... you do realize HERE is a yahoo message board, populated by anonymous pumpers and bashers with all sorts of agendas, right??? If you're new to RLYP, you looking in the wrong place for dd.

  • Reply to

    Back to Astra Zeneca's CC last week

    by justarook04 May 1, 2016 9:11 AM
    g_noh g_noh May 1, 2016 9:17 PM Flag

    $2.7 billion is obviously not chump change. But then again, for a company that has $7 billion in cash on its balance sheet and generates more than $6 billion annually in cash flow, it's not a huge amount. Note, too, that the $2.7 billion is a long-term investment, intended to generate a return over the next 15 years or so. So, unlike small one-drug companies like RLYP, a pdufa for a drug that may add $100 million the first year is not a big deal. It's a big deal to you and other RLYP dreamers/speculators but not for AZN.

    As for the revenue potential, do you seriously believe it's $1B - $6B? And what does that huge range say to you? Could it perhaps be $500 million - $6b? Or maybe $400 million to $500 million? All made up numbers. And if it were really within your range, do you think ZS would've sold for $2.7 billion. And, again, if your numbers were reasonable, why is RLYP's market cap sub-$1 billion. You've got all this takeover hype and all this huge sales potential hype and the company is worth less than $1B. What does that tell you????

  • Reply to

    Back to Astra Zeneca's CC last week

    by justarook04 May 1, 2016 9:11 AM
    g_noh g_noh May 1, 2016 9:18 PM Flag

    the stock was five to six dollars lower before the bogus reuters story and you say the downside is 2-3 dollars. how silly is that???? you say the upside is 25-30, where do you get these pie-in-the-sky completely meaningless numbers????

  • Reply to

    Back to Astra Zeneca's CC last week

    by justarook04 May 1, 2016 9:11 AM
    g_noh g_noh May 1, 2016 9:24 PM Flag

    what?????? what theory did i give up??? was there some connection between the initial comment and the comment to moneynow??? and what's the relevance of that tweet from whoever???

  • Reply to

    Back to Astra Zeneca's CC last week

    by justarook04 May 1, 2016 9:11 AM
    g_noh g_noh May 1, 2016 9:27 PM Flag

    what exactly is the point of all this nonsense? thanks for wasting my time.

  • Reply to

    Back to Astra Zeneca's CC last week

    by justarook04 May 1, 2016 9:11 AM
    g_noh g_noh May 1, 2016 9:30 PM Flag

    they may be temporary but does that matter when the company has approx $235 million in cash and is going to lose $400 million in the next two years? they run out of money well before the "temporary" costs go away.

  • Reply to

    Back to Astra Zeneca's CC last week

    by justarook04 May 1, 2016 9:11 AM
    g_noh g_noh May 1, 2016 9:34 PM Flag

    AZN's experts looked at both zs and rlyp and decided to by zs. if zs proves to be a dud, what does that say about veltassa's prospects?

  • Reply to

    Back to Astra Zeneca's CC last week

    by justarook04 May 1, 2016 9:11 AM
    g_noh g_noh May 1, 2016 9:42 PM Flag

    a lot of what you say is reasonable. the only thing i would maybe disagree with you is the 50% discount factor. 1. the takeout price was $2.7 not $2.9. 2. AZN outbid another suitor for ZS so clearly overpaid. 3. Biotech was approx 40% more expensive at the outset of the takeover talks for ZS. 4. Veltassa has a black box warning. 5. ZS-9 belongs to a far tougher potential rival, meaning that veltassa will face a tougher rival than ZS will. All in all, i think a far deeper discount is warranted, assuming anyone wanted to buy RLYP, which I don't believe.

  • Reply to

    Back to Astra Zeneca's CC last week

    by justarook04 May 1, 2016 9:11 AM
    g_noh g_noh May 1, 2016 9:48 PM Flag

    well, i wish you luck kwarter. azn and atelion should also fir a bunch of their experts who reviewed by veltassa and zs9.

  • Reply to

    Back to Astra Zeneca's CC last week

    by justarook04 May 1, 2016 9:11 AM
    g_noh g_noh May 1, 2016 9:51 PM Flag

    bravo stocklurker, great response.

  • Reply to

    Back to Astra Zeneca's CC last week

    by justarook04 May 1, 2016 9:11 AM
    g_noh g_noh May 1, 2016 11:06 PM Flag

    I've already said it's not chump change so I'm not sure why you continue to make a "big deal" about it. I also don't understand the connection between cutting costs, which is critical to managing ongoing earnings, and the importance of a relatively small long-term investment in what a company discusses in its cc. Does discussing zs9 in the cc, just before pdufa, change anything, whereas cutting cost does affect analysts' modeling activity. As to all your rambling about losing future revenues, what???? Again, what does that have to do with mgmt not discussing zs9, which will be a drop in the bucket for some time to come.

    Good question, how many Americans have recurrent hyperkalemia? Lie to me and give me a number. We have zero idea how many americans have "recurrent" hyperkalemia, so what's whatever penetration rate for some nebulous estimate? Your estimates are higher than $6B, haha, lol. What the heck do i care what some anonymous joe blow on a message board's estimate is? So you think the $6B figure is meaningful figure? So how stupid was ZS to sell for $2.7B a drug that targets a $6 billion market? How stupid is Wall street to price RLYP at below $1 billion when it has an FDA approved drug that targets such a gigantic market???

    So ZS sold for $2.7 billion because its drug wasn't approved yet. So why is RLYP, which has an approved drug, which so many of you believe is superior to ZS9, selling for less than $1 billion. "all sorts of explanation" ... give me a few.

  • Reply to

    Back to Astra Zeneca's CC last week

    by justarook04 May 1, 2016 9:11 AM
    g_noh g_noh May 1, 2016 11:14 PM Flag

    first an absolute fact: i am not short this stock.

    you don't have time to explain a base, whatever that is, but you the have time to give me all those lame excuses.

    perception of dilution??? absent a never happening buyout, company runs out of money by yearend, meaning company has to either borrow money or sell stock. who's going to lend money to a money-bleeding company, so hardly just a "perception" of dilution. A real possibility.

    biotech has lost some 40% in the past year or so, so how can you argue that the headwind hasn't gotten stronger for rlyp.

    you're responding to me, and, again, i repeat, i'm not short, because deep down inside you know i'm making some valid points. and just for the record, not every biotech with an fda-approved drug makes money, which is a narrative pumpers like to push to unsuspecting investors.

  • Reply to

    Back to Astra Zeneca's CC last week

    by justarook04 May 1, 2016 9:11 AM
    g_noh g_noh May 1, 2016 11:16 PM Flag

    such a smart comment!!!! i really hope you have someone else making your investment decisions, you're clearly not smart enough,

  • Reply to

    Back to Astra Zeneca's CC last week

    by justarook04 May 1, 2016 9:11 AM
    g_noh g_noh May 2, 2016 7:34 AM Flag

    You don't have a single good answer for my many questions so you come up with this gem. Congrats. I'll make it easy for you, just tell me how many Americans have recurrent hyperkalemia. We know approx how many have ckd 3/4, hf, and esrd, but how many have recurrent hyperkalemia????

  • Reply to

    Back to Astra Zeneca's CC last week

    by justarook04 May 1, 2016 9:11 AM
    g_noh g_noh May 2, 2016 7:41 AM Flag

    Amazing. You don't think AZ looked at RLYP before buying ZS??? If you were in the process of outbidding Actelion for ZS, you wouldn't also consider its closest competitor??? If your answers to the above are no, I've really been wasting my time with you.

    two companies deciding that zs is worth buying but rlyp isn't doesn't imply to you that the one not chosen is second rate??? amazing!!!! something missing in your reasoning abilities.

    how about the fact that fresinius paid a measly $40 million for non us or japan rights? what does that say to you????

  • Reply to

    Back to Astra Zeneca's CC last week

    by justarook04 May 1, 2016 9:11 AM
    g_noh g_noh May 2, 2016 7:53 AM Flag

    let's try a slightly different approach, probably make it a little easier for you to understand.

    if you walked into a ho-house and there were two girls, would you check out both before making a decision or just completely ignore one of them??

    next question, if all the fellas like you walked into that ho-house and picked the same girl, wouldn't there be some implication about the ho that was never picked???

  • Reply to

    Back to Astra Zeneca's CC last week

    by justarook04 May 1, 2016 9:11 AM
    g_noh g_noh May 2, 2016 12:19 PM Flag

    omg, what a stupid ridiculous analogy? first, it has zero connection to my response to hschlauch. second, are you suggesting valtessa blossomed into a better product after actelion and azn did their due diligence last summer/fall?

  • Reply to

    Back to Astra Zeneca's CC last week

    by justarook04 May 1, 2016 9:11 AM
    g_noh g_noh May 2, 2016 1:41 PM Flag

    to get excited about rlyp because azn didn't talk about zs9 in cc is called focus??? that's sad.

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