That is interesting. As far as I've been able to tell the frozen pizza sales aren't doing too hot. One Whole Foods nearby discontinued it bc it was selling horribly, per the manager. Guess we'll find out whether I'm right June 6.
Just confirmed on FIVE's IPO prospectus: Advent got in at $6.90/share. The current bid is $34. That is nearly a 5x. A home run. Their LPs will never give them money again if they don't take some profits.
THere's your catalyst.
100% premium to peers, decelerating productivity metrics and they're becoming saturated in their mature markets. Don't sleep on the Advent lockup expiration in January either. They own 51.7% of the shares and are up big the investment. If you don't think a private equity operator has incentive to take profits you're misunderstanding the purpose of their business
Focus Media is a real company. Its stated profitability is a fraud. There aren't many sure things in life besides death and taxes, but the assurance of false earnings from FMCN every quarter is about as close as you're gonna get.
It's funny to go back and look at how many people on Yahoo message boards (and beyond) similarly defended China MediaExpress, said its business model was misunderstood and called people who said otherwise total idiots.
If you had confidence ink were drying on the loan docs -- assuming you're a rational investor -- you would be buying out of the money calls on the cheap and/or adding to your long position rather than trying to persuade meaningless retail investors on the yahoo message boards. Dunce.
tnk.shorting - what you just pasted is hearsay. Until financing docs are signed this deal is just as likely (if not more so than the alternative) a facade to allow CEO and other members of focus media's mgmt to unload shares.
I shorted shares outright. Tried to add to my position when the stock caught a bid on "reports" 3 more banks had joined the financing effort, but got the hard-to-borrow message. The broker I use isn't very good at having shares to borrow generally, and I also noticed that short interest had grown ~225% since I began the position just a couple months ago in September
That might be part of it. However, I am nearly certain that the market was discounting fraud. Nobody wants to touch Chinese companies since so many of them are frauds. So when they announced that they'd pay out profits in a special dividend, I think that gave it some momentum. When they actually PAID the dividend over the weekend, that greatly diminished the likelihood that SFUN is a fraud and was (in my opinion) a major catalyst for share price appreciation. Chinese frauds sometimes pay a small quarterly dividend to bat off shorts, but when a company pays a fat special dividend out typically that is an indication that the numbers on its fin statements are real. You saw the price jump 13% on Monday and like 4% each of the last 2 days. It's still below fair value I think, regardless of how soon the Chinese residential RE market rebounds.
I had a feeling Monday might be a great day so I wasn't shocked that it was up so much, but I certainly was pleased. Have to say that considering SFUN is by far my biggest long position (11%), this is fantastic. Well above average trading volume last several trading days.
If you guys bought below $4, good for you. If you're buying now I think you'll be disappointed for a long time. I used to think it was worth $6 and covered near there. Now I think it's worth $4 and started a short position at $7 accordingly
While I think there have been some very positive developments recently wrt to the BoD, is anyone with industry knowledge familiar with JAG's assets? An acquaintance who works in M&A for nat resource and mining companies told me JAG's reserves in Brazil are crap. Specifically, there is a lot of hard rock to get through...
No regular dividend announced; ad hoc basis. Seems to be a shareholder friendly management that will continue to return money in dividends as long as they're profitable.
From a cursory glance.....
Probably because any outperformance of (weak) guidance is solely attributable to poly, for which the economics seem to keep getting worse and worse. Other than that, if I had to guess what smart investors are seeing it would include: falling profit margins, an evaporating net cash position, and a questionable future return on capital invested in sapphire and especially in PV. Oh and also the backlog writeoff - prob not the first you will see.
Definitely don't listen to me though. If you search posts by me you won't see me essentially forecasting as much or recommending a short from 9.50. I also didn't recommend PWER as a better way to play a rebound in solar (from 4.11 and reiterated down at 3.65). If you whine about it enough in a yahoo chat room, I bet things will turn around for them.
Please do not pretend that you're capable of quantifying what's baked into the share price.
I had to cover today (and was able to at 17.15) bc my bank called and asked if I could cover by Thurs at noon since they didn't have shares to borrow. I figured it wasn't worth giving up the gains I had in the event that more shorts start covering over next couple days.
As a former believer, I lean more to the pessimistic side (given the cash position, onerous PIPE financing and former director's suicide). Barring a rally, however, there's not enough margin of safety for me to initiate a new Put position. My only remaining exposure to this POS is a couple Jan '13 $23 calls that don't have enough value left to bother selling. If you unfailingly optimistic ones prove correct I will be shocked but pleased.