Long term investors finally getting paid off for years of under achievement. My honest opinion is when they announced the date for the earnings call the numbers leaked and this quarter is going to be a blowout. My guess is $75 mm revenue and $.05 earnings
I am in a similar situation. If you don't mind me asking, what are your avg purchases at and what would be your strategy moving ahead....averaging up?
The fact that Dnr didn't enjoy the gains but participated in the heavy losses is more a negative than a positive IMO. The rally to $4.50's which was a sucker rally brought those that were experiencing FOMO (feat of missing out). I tend to think current stock price was supported by an expected rise in oil of $55-60 and when we dipped below $50 a lot of bearish events came together causing what we have seen and I think there is more to come
You share my exact sentiment by point sheenarazi. After reviewing the last (2) quarterly CCs some news is due in the coming weeks Either a sale or a JV if they are not getting the price they are looking for or something else as they said everything is on the table. If I am not mistaken cash up front is key and a JV wouldn't solve that issue. Wouldn't that just share the cost to fund future production etc? In q4's conf call they mentioned 20+ interested parties shortlisted to 6 and hiring a 3rd party is now casting a wider net. They also mention creating shareholder value when discussing restarting future production so while bankruptcy would be counter to that, the share price suggests otherwise. Also would they indicate paying the banks back in installments just to default on payments and file and tarnish that relationship?
So many unanswered questions
Kinged - I think you nailed it with the (2) observations. You will see the biggest rise when oil is $55-$70 because at current prices they are not in as good of shape as the others above and their hedges mitigate that
I just found that this company has been accumulated by insiders and saw a bunch of purchases. Are all these open market buys or option grants. They are trading below cash and curious about their prospects.
Any commentary greatly apprecited
It is apparent that the news is causing the drop as Huawei is by far their largest customer. The fact that I am grappling with is that the equipment that NPTN is supplying Huawei is used to build out the top3+ china telcos and is most likely not being used in the countries of interest. The probe is information only at this point and it would take a huge change of direction for NPTN's sales to be affected based on this inquiry.
What risks do you see? If this goes by as nothing, this would be the biggest opportunity in investing in this company. The company's expansion plans are primarily a result of supplying Huawei
Also, look at the charts on Friday. High concentration of volume in 2 series of moderate spikes so its either short covering (doubt it because price didn't move), reshuffling of shares with buyers and sellers (possible) or accumulation. Today's follow through price pop most likely validates the latter in spite of higher oil prices.
Possibility that news has leaked if you connect the dots.
Today's news may be backward looking, but it reinforces the premise that CRNT is completely undervalued by the market. THey are now in a period of growth with better margins but the stock is stuck at depressed levels. In lower interest rate environments small and mid caps do well and with the tailwinds now in the business and margin expansion, CRNT should see itself at $4 in a few months (4-6)
What valuation do you come up with using this method under conservative assumptions and assuming current oil prices steady over time ?
Good input. So it seems the value I placed on their core acreage was conservative. Give that the liquidation of potential assets would exceed the amount of debt, would there be any value for common in a bankruptcy situation. Does the lack of insider ownership in the equity increase a bankruptcy option?
Also I noticed the q1 press release indicated that management would release the results of the marketing of the RMI Sale on or before the next quarter's results. What does this mean? Do they have a deal in the works that they know will close in that timeframe? Since they are so hush about any deal not yet closed, could they come out and say 'we decided not to sell because we didn't get any good offers and file ch 11 etc etc'. I don't know how they can predict a definitive outcome given the situation unless 'no sale' was a potential outcome.
What is the market missing here if anything on this specific equity?
Based on some of the input on this MB, I ran some simple math on BCEI to get an idea of enterprise value and potential stock price appreciation vs current price. Here are the numbers:
Current Market Cap - $119MM
Current Debt: $1.1B
Current Market Valuation: $1.29B
Asset Niobrara: $$924 MM (Assumed $12k *77k acres
MidCon: Assumed sale of $150MM
RMI Infr: Assumed Sale of $200MM
Total Assets: $1.492B
Assets minus Debt = 392MM
Current Market Cap = 119MM
Proposed stock price: $7.9 vs $2.4 as of close of business Fri
Are the assets valued to high? Is there overlap in the asset calc? What else isnt considered? I recall the analyst saying that the market is valuing some of their acreage as nil. Any input welcome...