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Silicon Motion Technology Corp. Message Board

geezer31 17 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 15, 2016 5:41 AM Member since: Dec 22, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Ok, it's guessing game time for Q3!

    by geezer31 Jul 14, 2016 2:36 PM
    geezer31 geezer31 Jul 15, 2016 5:41 AM Flag

    The sky is the limit the way things are going, I agree. The main concern for me remains the SK eMMC business. SSDs and Shannon seem super high growth areas, and the legacy USB stuff and transceiver stuff is small now as a percent of sales, and not expected to grow anyways. eMMC is still a large chunk of revenue, so that the only potential rough segment. I'm not saying I expect eMMC to slow down, just that it's the only large space with cause for some concern. I wouldn't be surprised to see SIMO reach 75 by year end. Who knows!? Maybe Q3 growth will be 25%? That alone could push SIMO to $75.....fun times ahead.

  • Let's all pick what we expect for SIMO's guidance for Q3.

    I think they guide revenues up 5% to 10% sequentially, and gross margins to 50% to 52%, and they expect to beat both those numbers. Whattaya say??

  • Reply to

    Q2 eps estimate looks like this

    by geezer31 Jul 9, 2016 10:12 AM
    geezer31 geezer31 Jul 9, 2016 1:57 PM Flag

    I think my operating expense number is too low. I checked what they spent last Q, and that was almost $29m, and I seem to recall they said Q2 expenses would jump from Q1 due to increased take outs. So maybe $32m operating expense is more like it, that will push EPS lower. I'm away from home and all my info is on my home PC, so the is all just from memory. Regardless, I think SIMO be going up!

  • So lets see, I'm traveling, so these numbers are pretty rough, but Q2 EPS looks like...

    Revenues = $112.7 x 1.24 = $139.7m

    Gross margins at 48.5% = $67.8m

    Operating expenses, I forgot guidance, maybe $29m?

    Operating profit = $38.8m

    Taxes are 18%, so $7.0m

    Net profit is $31.8m

    Shares = 35.3m

    $0.90 eps

    --------

    That's not bad! Revenues could be a tick higher. I can't recall operating expense guidance, so that $29m estimate could be higher or lower. But 90 cents EPS is pretty good if you ask me, and sets them up for a monster second half when revenues AND gross margins should increase.

  • Reply to

    Congratulations All Longs!

    by razor_phishh Jul 7, 2016 12:27 PM
    geezer31 geezer31 Jul 7, 2016 2:00 PM Flag

    Price target is tough to figure now. All we can say is that it should go up. Revenues up 15% sequentially in Q1, and now up 24% sequentially in Q2, it's revenue growth is accelerating from strong growth to hyper strong growth. That's good of course, but what is iSIMO's worth? Ya got me. If they can convince investors that all this new revenue is sustainable, then the PE should expand. Since SSDs are growing, it seems sustainable, so sure, give them 20x 2017 EPS and you've got maybe a $75 stock. But why not 25x? I don't know, but I know the share is going up.

  • Reply to

    Congratulations All Longs!

    by razor_phishh Jul 7, 2016 12:27 PM
    geezer31 geezer31 Jul 7, 2016 1:14 PM Flag

    Yeah, I think it means revenues are about $140m. Then it's likely revenues are going up again in Q3, and gross margins are going above 51% in Q3.

    It's like, everything is going through the roof!

    Where's that guy that always used to spill his martini?

  • Reply to

    The first of many upgrades to come....

    by wanabtigerw Jul 6, 2016 11:17 AM
    geezer31 geezer31 Jul 6, 2016 3:18 PM Flag

    SIMO as a matter of company policy pre announces revenues and gross margins every quarter. It has nothing to do with whether results are in line with or above expectations, they just do it. So there will be some news, I think this week, but Monday at the latest.

  • I'll bet they pre announce Q2 revenues and gross margins on Thursday this week before the open. I haven't got much of a clue what the numbers will be. Revenues last Q were about $112m and they guided Q2 to be up 5% to 10% from that. My hunch is revenues will be up more than 10% sequentially, but how much more is a wild guess.

    Here's hoping we can close the week above $50!

  • Reply to

    Today's action

    by brian4free2000 Jun 30, 2016 10:55 PM
    geezer31 geezer31 Jul 1, 2016 1:15 AM Flag

    I would expect them to pre-announce revenues on July 7 or 8. Keep in mind that they pre-announce whether results are good or just in line, it's their policy to pre-announce revenues and gross margins early. Not really sure why. Price action is great, but getting a bit scary, don't ya think? I can see them pre-announcing that while they guided revenues to be up 5% to 10% things are really good, and revenues will be up 15%......and the shares declining as a result. Who knows, it's taking off so who knows where or when it turns around.

  • There's an article on AnandTech dot com website with the following bit at the middle

    This year, Intel's decision to release an affordable mainstream SATA SSD has led them to use a Silicon Motion controller. But "affordable" by today's standards means using 15/16nm TLC NAND flash, and Intel doesn't make that either. They chose not to invest in the 16nm node at IMFT (their flash manufacturing partnership with Micron) so Intel has to buy their flash on the open market.

    The result is the Intel 540s, using Silicon Motion's new SM2258 controller and SK Hynix 16nm TLC NAND. The SM2258 controller is the successor to the SM2256, Silicon Motion's first controller designed for use with TLC flash. SM2258 builds on that design by moving from 55nm fabrication to 40nm and incorporating several hardware tweaks including more flexible SLC caching and support for 3D NAND.

  • UK has voted to leave the EU, and futures are down almost 5%. What will happen to little SIMO?

    I don't know, but my hunch says is will outperform the market decline (ie. hold up better than the market). The real affect of Brexit on SIMO is pretty low (I think), and there still seem to be plenty of investors licking their chops to get into SIMO at lower prices. Mainly index related funds will be selling, and SIMO is small enough that it's not in many indexes. We shall see....

  • Reply to

    All Time Closing High Reached Today

    by thatl_leavea_mark Jun 15, 2016 6:54 PM
    geezer31 geezer31 Jun 15, 2016 10:26 PM Flag

    So.... scale is better than "trend stablely"? :-)

  • Reply to

    Market Down / SIMO Up (Big)

    by razor_phishh Jun 14, 2016 3:48 PM
    geezer31 geezer31 Jun 15, 2016 10:25 PM Flag

    What semi stocks have PEs above 20x? SIMO seldom gets a PE as high as it is now (based on 2016 EPS estimate of about $2.80). I'm enjoying the run up, but valuation seems like its starting to get stretched.

    Hopefully SIMO gets multiple expansion, and investors decide SIMO deserves a 25x PE, but it's hard to have confidence in that theory/prayer.

  • geezer31 geezer31 Jun 7, 2016 5:25 AM Flag

    Sounds good. I don't think SIMO is down to the 16nm processing level yet, but hopefully it indicates strength in products where SIMO has a design slot. I don't really know how TSMC's revenues break out by product area - is cell phones a big segment for them? QCOM must be huge for TSMC, but I think QCOM is in both Apple and non-Apple. MediaTek is probably pretty big with TSMC as well. I wonder if MediaTek might be an eventual buyer of SIMO? I've been trying to think who migth some day buy SIMO, and MediaTek and/or AVGO seems like potential buyers.

    I wonder if SIMO management would want to sell if some buyer offered a 50% share price premium, or they'd prefer to remain independent and grow themselves?

    Trends right now seem pretty damn good. I don't know what investors will demand out of Q2 results, but with the recent share price run up it seems like SIMO should beat the high end of their own guidance to keep the rally going. Or maybe not, who knows? Even if SIMO comes in the middle of their own guidance, that's a record quarter of about $120m, and still a pretty attractive outlook (30% annual revenue growth in 2016).

  • Reply to

    Chart is way overbought unless....

    by razor_phishh Jun 1, 2016 8:12 PM
    geezer31 geezer31 Jun 1, 2016 8:49 PM Flag

    I gave you a boatload of fundamental analysis in my reply to your previous post. What else do you want?

    What's a stock growing revenues 25% to 30% per year, growing EPS more than that, and perhaps earning $3.20 per share in 2017 worth? The outlook beyond 2017 is of course unclear, but it seems good. Fundamentally answer that question, and we can take it from there.

    I don't use charts, so there.

  • Reply to

    SIMO Going Skyward... what's the scoop?

    by razor_phishh Jun 1, 2016 7:46 PM
    geezer31 geezer31 Jun 1, 2016 8:01 PM Flag

    I think SIMO is finally starting to get the "brand" as the best way to play the transition from hard drives to SSDs. Most of the other companies that benefit from SSD growth (WDC, STX) have a large legacy business that will decline (hard drives) as SSDs grow. Or their SSD business is just a small part of their total business (Intel, Samsung, Micron, etc.). SIMO is one of the few stocks that benefits from SSD growth without having some large chunk of their business suffer while SSDs grow. Also, recent indications are that the SK-Hynix eMMC business is going to have a decent growth year - I had been worried that business may peak this year then perhaps decline when UFS 2.0 kicks in, and who knows if SIMO is going to have the same role in UFS 2.0 that they have in eMMC?

    Face it - SIMO has put up ~25% per year average annual growth since 2009, it deserves a PE above 20x. It has never had that in the past 7 years, but it may be finally getting the recognition (higher PE multiple) that it deserves. If it can beat Q2 estimates by a bit and raise 2016 guidance again, we may see a new PE multiple range for SIMO which is closer to 20x than 13x. SIMO can easily do $3.20 in 2017 if the revenue growth keeps up. Give that a 20x PE and you've got a $64 stock (with lotsa cash to boot). It's not that ridiculous when revenues are growing well above 25% per year. Given them a 25x PE and you've got an $80 stock. It all depends on the sustainability of the revenues, if they are going to stay around the 25% to 30% revenue growth rate, 25x doesn't seem too crazy....

  • MediaTek Inc. shares climbed after a senior executive said second-quarter revenue growth is on track to come in toward the higher end of its forecast for a 24 to 32 percent rise, thanks to surging demand for mobile chips from China and India.
    The Taiwanese company, which supplies lower-cost Chinese brands and is one of Qualcomm Inc.’s biggest adversaries, is running out of 4G-enabled chips because of surprisingly strong demand from developing countries, Chief Financial Officer David Ku said in an interview at the Computex trade show.

SIMO
50.62+1.75(+3.58%)Aug 26 4:00 PMEDT