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The GEO Group, Inc. Message Board

gere33982 50 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 2, 2012 9:55 AM Member since: Feb 20, 2006
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  • Reply to

    Be Cautious of The Run Up Heading into Earnings

    by msftnok Oct 2, 2012 7:35 AM
    gere33982 gere33982 Oct 2, 2012 9:55 AM Flag

    Good points. Although I have long option positions in Nokia, I have bought October 20th $3 puts to hold until the "warnings season" is past.

    The future of the stock is very uncertain, until we get some idea as to whether Nokia's Windows 8 smart phones are going to get market share in developed markets. Or could Apple buy out the company for its mapping and camera technologies, and save itself half a billion dollars a year in royalties? With Apple having a great deal of currency overseas that it will have to pay tax to repatriate, this might make sense in the same way that Microsoft bought Skype which was originally based in Luxumbourg.

  • gere33982 gere33982 Aug 26, 2012 6:47 PM Flag

    Day traders who hold the stock over the weekend are not day traders.

  • Reply to

    buy buy buy

    by neverabogey May 26, 2011 2:06 PM
    gere33982 gere33982 Jun 14, 2011 6:41 PM Flag

    I think they have a very good chance of getting more business in Florida, which is the home state.

    http://www.tampabay.com/news/publicsafety/crime/florida-prison-privatization-proposals-open-door-for-politically-connected/1161292

    I worked for GEO for a while and have met some of their top corporate officers. They seem to be a pretty efficient and competent crew and now have enough size to have momentum.

    I don't think the stock has a lot of downside. It tends to undulate gently in its channel and is in a secular uptrend. A good stock for swing trading. Buy when it gets to the bottom of its Keltner channels and sell when it bounces off the top and you should be able to make a few trades per year for a nice yield.

  • Reply to

    Bought more today-will buy more tomorrow

    by capt_rj_kirk May 23, 2011 8:04 PM
    gere33982 gere33982 May 25, 2011 11:56 AM Flag

    You seem to have a very sad life, idolizing RJ Kirk and following his every move or imagined move.

    Always buying, but never selling. Do you not realize you could have loaded up to the gills at $5.75 only a few weeks ago and sold at $7.75 even more recently?

  • gere33982 gere33982 May 6, 2011 7:30 PM Flag

    Whatever the reason, it is clear that the company is not being very honest about what is going on, so that is creating uncertainty which is not good for the stock, which was incredibly overvalued anyway before this correction, and most likely remains so.

    In my opinion it drifts a bit lower now until more news comes out, and somehow I don't think the next round of news will be anything really positive, otherwise why aren't we hearing it now.

  • Reply to

    How long... has this been going on?

    by gere33982 May 4, 2011 9:48 AM
    gere33982 gere33982 May 4, 2011 10:43 AM Flag

    Technically you are correct. I sold $120 calls.

  • What is really going on here?

    Stock selling off like crazy before earnings announced yesterday.

    Earnings not too bad, but change of CEO. What does this REALLY signify?

    Clearly the CEO has already made so much money on stock that he doesn't need to work at all if he doesn't want to, so you can rule out personal reasons.

    I guess that means he was given the boot. But why? Is there more scandal to follow, will earnings be restated?

    Overall I am short at $120, but only have a small position and so no particular dog in the fight.

    It seems to me that the company has been extremely overvalued up to this point, so a correction was due anyway, regardless of the CEO.

    A good business in a niche market, to be sure, but hardly likely to change the way the whole human race is fed.

  • Reply to

    Niche market

    by gere33982 May 3, 2011 7:50 PM
    gere33982 gere33982 May 3, 2011 8:10 PM Flag

    But that is my whole point. A service that is very successful in major cities certainly has a role to play, but it will miss a large part of the population.

    How would companies like Walmart and Walgreens be valued if they were only on the ground in metropolitan areas?

    Supposing Exxon only sold gasoline in cities of over 1/2 million people?

    Amazon, on the other hand, is in every home that has an Internet connection and a credit or debit card.

  • gere33982 by gere33982 May 3, 2011 7:50 PM Flag

    Open table seems like an excellent company that provides a useful service to restaurants by outsourcing reservations and presumably also advertising restaurants that participate and steering in some customers who might otherwise have gone to other restaurants.

    But the problem is that restaurants that need reservations are a niche market, because most restaurants in the US don't.

    I live in Florida and I've looked at the Open Table Web site and there is no restaurant in my zip code listed. The nearest is in a larger city 35 miles away.

    That's not to say that there aren't some very popular restaurants in the town where I live. There are, and I often eat in them and so do lots of other people.

    But margins are thin. No restauranteur is willing to pay up a dollar for each customer that is steered into the restaurant, because if people are going to eat out, they will eat out. In other words, it is hard to see how Open Table can actually increase the number of restaurant meals eaten. All it can do is (maybe) poach some clientele from some restaurants that don't have a presence on Open Table.

    Another factor is that many restaurants are run by ethnics who are generally suspicious of any attempt by big business to monitor their cash flow or cut into their margins.

    It may be different in San Francisco, Chicago, or New York. It probably IS different there, but here in Florida people eat out a lot and hardly ever make reservations, to the best of my knowledge. If a popular restaurant is full they get in line outside and wait for a table. This obviously works well for the restaurant, because as soon as a table is vacated and wiped, more butts are seated.

    So while I am sincerely believe that Open Table is a useful service and a well run company, I don't see how it can ever be more than a player in a niche market. It can't change the way we live, which is the kind of valuation it has been getting before today.

    Based on this perception, a couple weeks ago I shorted the May $120/$125 call spread, and while I had a few heart stopping moments when the stock climbed into the $118s, I think I am probably home free now and may be able to close my position tomorrow for a nice return on my investment which has cost me nothing but some margin, so the return on investment should be roughly 30% over 2-3 weeks.

    Making money on OPEN going forward may be much trickier, as we may see a gap down tomorrow and then at some point there will be a bounce or bounces as shorts cover, but over the next few months it is likely that the stock price will continue to fade and drop to more realistic levels.

    Selling longer term in the money calls while volatility remains high may be rewarding.

  • gere33982 gere33982 May 3, 2011 5:22 PM Flag

    I would buy back those puts right now in after hours if you can while they are out of the money.

    Not sure what can and can't be done right now. I had sold some 120/125 spreads and wanted to add some 120/30 spreads to my position, but my market order has not been filled.

    I think the stock gaps down tomorrow big time, but where it will end up I have no idea whatsoever.

  • gere33982 gere33982 May 2, 2011 11:51 AM Flag

    What does she look like?

  • Reply to

    Want to buy May $90 puts...

    by mdt67 Apr 29, 2011 3:30 PM
    gere33982 gere33982 Apr 30, 2011 9:10 AM Flag

    If the stock goes down $20 from the current price, your $90 puts will be worth zero at expiration.

    The options are very expensive due to the volatility of the stock, so you would do better to sell spreads or ratio backspreads.

    Try selling 1 $110 put and buying 2 $105 puts.

    Maximum loss: $500 + debit of approx $200--total $700--depending on what you bid for the option spread.

    Maximum gain: Sky is the limit, but if the stock goes down to $90 then you are $1000 in the money and for every dollar below $90 you add another $100.

    Breakeven price would be around $101 to $102 depending on how much you pay for the options.

    The $90 puts are selling for about $1.50, so for 50 cents extra, you could move your breakeven point from $88.50 to $101.

  • gere33982 by gere33982 Apr 25, 2011 7:20 PM Flag

    There was a thread here earlier today in which we were discussing the viability of OPEN's business model, and now that thread has disappeared.

    I know because I posted on that thread, and now that post is not listed on my list of messages and I cannot find that discussion at all and have looked at all of today's posts.

    WTF?

  • Reply to

    This, ladies and gentleman, is the top.

    by zackd1691 Apr 25, 2011 5:11 PM
    gere33982 gere33982 Apr 25, 2011 5:57 PM Flag

    I think this is very likely. I am not short per se, but have sold option spreads at prices higher than today's price to take advantage of the volatility and hope to see a very nice return.

    Today the stock seems to be taking a breather, however this was a day in which the market in general went nowhere. There was some upwards movement at the open, which I took to be an indication of momentum orders that had stacked up over the long weekend, but once they were gone then it was mostly uphill sledding.

    The 15-minute chart for the day confirms this will a huge white candle for the first 15 minutes with positive money flow, but the money flow for the day as a whole was negative, probably with some money being taken off the table after recent gains.

    I would not be surprised to see the stock inching downwards tomorrow, and don't expect to see any surge upwards at the open. I think if it doesn't go up at the open, then it finishes lower.

  • Reply to

    short position still increasing !~!!!!!!!!

    by futuremedicine40 Apr 14, 2011 9:46 AM
    gere33982 gere33982 Apr 14, 2011 10:28 AM Flag

    A few days ago when this stock was trading at $5 my friend told me they had a cure for Alzheimers and the stock was going up a lot more, so I put my entire retirement IRA in CIGX stock and call options.

    Now I see it is at $3 and change. I don't want to sound anxious, and I know it is going up, but when? I am 65 and have $900 per month social security, so I'm not really depending on the other $400,000 in CIGX for survival, but I wonder if it would be a good idea to take a little cash off the table and put it in Netflix which looks like a solid stock since movies have been around since before I was born.

  • Reply to

    As I suggested yesterday...

    by gere33982 Apr 7, 2011 11:08 AM
    gere33982 gere33982 Apr 7, 2011 11:29 AM Flag

    Well, your 25 cent April $6 calls are doubled in value, and if the stock price heads north over the next few days, as I suspect it will, then you will really be able to milk those calls.

  • .. we gapped up this morning, peaked, and now are probably retracing to fill the gaps.

    The volume control looked like it was broken with $1.2 million traded in the first 30 minutes, probably due to momentum investors boarding the ZIOP express with market orders,but now the money flow has gone negative and the gap is filling.

    This is actually an incredibly predictable pattern with stocks.

    A stock has a good day and good technicals, momentum investors jump in with overnight orders, so to get enough shares to fill the orders market makers have to gap up to get shares from owners who have profited the previous day, or left stop limit and limit orders.

    The required number of shares are thus collected and sold at market to their new owners, then once the demand has dried up the price is dropped to where trading left off the day before so that the market makers can accumulate more shares for resale later.

    A trailing stop placed yesterday would have taken advantage of this phenomenon, however I went a different path and with the stock at $6.60 this morning sold July $7 calls for 65 cents a share, locking in a nice profit if the stock goes up more, but not over $7.25.

    Of course the price may go higher, but I have have an equal number of shares that aren't pledged to option calls.

    If the stock plunges below $6.10 I will probably buy back those calls on the cheap and sell $6 calls instead.

  • .... strong now, which should be good for tomorrow. A trailing stop to take advantage of a possible gap up followed by a retracement might not be totally foolish, though I would not be toosurprised to see a new high later tomorrow.

  • ... at around $6.42. Hopefully that will be the new basement.

  • gere33982 gere33982 Apr 6, 2011 1:12 PM Flag

    I'm not saying you are wrong, Capt_rj_kir... but I am talking about the heavy buying action over the last couple of hours specifically. (You sometimes let your enthusiastic fandom for the doings of Roland J. Kirk get the better of you.)

    It seems consistent to me with a smaller institutional buyer taking a position of a couple of million dollars, plus volume boosted by day traders getting in ahead of the big buyer and then releasing as the stock moves up.

    That is why the action now slowed and the volume for the last half hour has only been 1/3 or 1/4 of each of the other 1/2 hours today. The price has slipped as short term traders cover their positions to lock in profits.

    The bigger institutional buyers like Fidelity can't be quite so nimble and clearly they often build their positions by buying into secondary offerings where they know exactly what price they are gettings in at.

    At least that is how I see it today, though I welcome any opinions from those more savvy than me.

    Obviously I hope that some of the funds from the CLDA closing will find there way into ZIOP, but that hasn't happened yet. (I still have some CLDA shares myself with a basis of $14.98 and am waiting for that payoff.)

GEO
34.61+0.65(+1.91%)Jul 29 4:02 PMEDT