You can get answer by yourself.
The current cash flow for next 2 years is around $80m for each year. If HMM goes bk and Hanjin does not, then the cash flow will be down to over $40m each year. That is based on existing other contracts and current BDI. Now you can evaluate if the current price is good or not.
NNA is my top holding. Average cost is less than $1.70. Now i am little neverous as you show the same confidence as you had on NMM 3 months ago. AF may #$%$ up again on NNA this time.
How much do you trust her? For me it is almost 0 now. Regarding market stabilization, there is no way she can know it. The BDI could start to drop just right after her purchase.
30% is widely expected! no 15%. After the cut, the earning will be 28 cents and the cash flow will be $60m per quarter. Based on the cash flow, it will take 11 years to pay out the debt. It is a little high in the current environment.
What they have signed is a contract, so VALE cannot just walk away without any compensation. The problem here is that VALE is also the biggest customer of existing revenue, so NSAL may have to re-negotiate with VALE on this. The possible result is that the profit of the new project may be just enough to cover the interest however, NSAL may also get the extension of current contract.
Can insider trade pfd when the dividend is suspended? They will be the only one that knows when the dividend will be back. Definitely they can buy a lot at such a big discount if they know the plan.
I used 4xcash flow plus the current asset value(not fire sale value). The issue from HMM got improved, but it is still there. That's the reason why it is still under$2. It should be above$4 once HMM is not an issue anymore and should be above$8 if BDI can stay around 900.
It would be $4 if 4xprice/cash flow is used. It does not make sense to use PE in shipping industry as the market value for a shipping company is much lower than the book value. So if you use PE then you should also consider the book value. Either way, NMM price has a big potential to triple in 2 years.
Everything could be possible. The pf price would not be below $5 if it were confirmed that the dividend would be back. You buy here for a cheap price but at high risk. The management team owns 30% of common so the chance is high to bring the dividend back when condition is allowed. You can see it from its dividend history, but AF became unpredictable for now.
At least, longs don't need to worry about the dividend cut, but shorts need to worry about bringing dividend back. Nobody know where BDI will go next.
It is a little surprising. Compared with SB management team, AF is a real garbage to suspend the pf dividend so easily. SB will also have a tough road ahead with new deliveries and more lease back.