I wish I had everything in a Roth, all of my investments are in a Fidelity IRA so taxes will apply as I draw from it.. Good luck with MDVN
Duranago, From the time AbbVie announced the buyout it was a couple of months until it closed , but prior to that was the interesting part. The stock ran up, like mdvn is doing and when the rumors of a buyout started circulating it was a matter of weeks I believe until a deal was done. It all seems like a distant memory to me now, but it really wasn't that long ago I guess. I Sold my shares, as I said, before deal was completed and I expect MDVN will go the same way, close to the buyout price prior to deal completion. The deal with AbbVie was mostly cash, 58% I think, and then stock. The thing with that deal was that the PCYC team was being welcomed into the fold of AbbVie in what seemed to be a happy and harmonious way. I do not think that would be the case with Sanofi as there may be a lot of lingering resentment on the MDVN side, but who knows, each deal is different.
I'm just quoting the article here, two things stand out:
"Medivation is expecting a price higher than what Pharmacyclics received."
"It will probably get more than what Pharmacyclics received"
Any way you slice it, it sounds positive to me.
Well written Nova: I held pcyc from $2.00 until buyout, buying along the way, I finally sold for $255 rather than wait another several months for $10.00 extra. Pcyc protested along the way that they did not want to sell, there were talks of poison pills in place etc. During the negotiation the pundits continually downplayed what the company would be sold for, it was an absolute shocker when Abbvie won out over J&J at (what we all considered at the time) a huge premium. Medivation will be my fourth biotech buyout in the last few years if the deal goes through. What I have learned is this, the price is never what you think it will be and you are often acquired by the company that you would least expect. I made two large investments after PCYC, I bought MDVN believing it to be the next blockbuster and I bought Exel prior to the meteor trial, I have been very lucky with each so far. I have said from the start that $75 would be a good price, but at this point I will be happy with any fair deal. I own stock and options (which expire in January) so from my standpoint I want a deal in place in the next few months. Good Luck.
How much should it get? I just read this and, not to get your hopes up, here is a line from the article. "Medivation is expecting a price higher than what Pharmacyclics received."
PCYC sold for $21 Billion which is more than double the current offer.
In comparison to Pharmacyclics, Medivation has Xtandi as a major blockbuster oncology drug. It has Talazoparib and Pidilizumab as late-stage oncology pipeline molecules. For details on the leading drug, read Medivation: Xtandi Global Sales Rose 53% in 1Q16.
Medivation thinks that Talazoparib will be a bigger success than Xtandi.
"Considering the prospects for the pipeline, Medivation should fetch more than what Sanofi offered.
Like I said, don't get your hopes up.
"Nucynta is getting rejected by Dr.s"
Nucynta is not being rejected by doctors, I was recently prescribed it over percocet for my herniated discs pain and I know two other guys who just got on it, seems it's gaining traction if anything. I think a strong sell may be better suited when Depo is in the $30 range, unless sales continue higher, as they have been.
"BUT we do know that PFe and AMGN signed NDA's with MDVN"
Do we know that? Reuters reported that (potential rumor) but has MDVN or anyone confirmed it, no.
I hope they have but I would like confirmation that there are other bidders.
Args is a very interesting company, if what they are doing works out well it should hit the highs in a big way.
As for Exel, I have held it in the past with spikes of $7.00 ( in premarket or, extended trading) and was not a seller then, I do anticipate much higher pps going forward, and potentially a buyout.
Medical device companies are anticipated to out perform the general health sector, let Trov be one of them. I kinda like the $12.00 target myself, it's a good start anyway!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
"lol interesting that you actually look at yahoo target,"
It's pretty hard to miss it, it's on the front page of the Exel board under "Ask"
"Is this bill expected to impact Nucynta prescription growth?"
I doubt it, currently in California opioids are controlled more cautiously. When I got my prescription it was written up in the normal way and the pharmacy would not accept it, a call to the doctor and the prescription was written up on a different pad. I do not think legitimate use will be affected at all. One problem I did encounter, I received a prescription for the Nucynta pills but they did a dna test for the sustained release, the doctor said something about determining if I was a fast metabolizer or not as to being a candidate? I am now fighting the insurance company who do not want to cover the cost of that test and question the need for it. I may be forced to pay the $1500, the prescription under my insurance was $25.00 I would have been quite happy with the regular pills, (herniated discs)
"once investors feel like the management turmoil is over, the pps will rebound."
I think you are seeing a little of this in AH, I believe the presentation has reassured the astute on Wall Street that the new CEO may actually be a positive for the company. Remember, the drop in pps was predicated on the instability of management, not the product line. If Trov is seen to be in good hands then the reason for the discount is itself discounted.
We will see tomorrow, Good Luck.