MRVL has seen a CC last night. They are a little behind on the release of quarterly data, and their qtr ends are not the usual months.
In the call, they have seen a significant uptick in HDD demand over the past 3 months (May, June, July), relative to a very down 1Q17 (Feb, Mar, Apr).
If Sandisk were still a separate company, it's recent performance combined with this piece of news would have shot it over $100/share. Whether it will be an economic benefit or just a trading play, this really is a big deal in the NAND space, and would have had a big impact on Sandisk. Yet, as you point out, you cannot discern a difference between WDC as a HDD company from a NAND company.
At this point in time, STX & WDC are being valued by the same set of metrics - the old HDD set. Yet, WDC is a radically different beast. Hard to reconcile.
They seem to have some deep-pocketed SSD suppliers behind them. To really understand the solution, you have to dig into the Fabrics concept. Always quicker to take a task and divide it into multiple paths with smaller chunks.
I recently built a high-end station with a NVMe SSD installed. Honestly, I couldn't see much difference between that system and my run-of-the-mill desktop. But it wasn't running the high-end simulation software it was designed for. Let's face it, running Windows and a standard Office set of apps doesn't benefit much from a SSD (always has been hype).
Intel ain't worried about a slowdown in data center growth. But the Wall Street traders need to make some money. Intel's words should be very familiar to us HDD followers:
"Krzanich ... pointed out that customer signals are indicating the "seasonal buying pattern" kicking back in during the rest of the year. .... Krzanich stressed that the data center business is always "lumpy" because vendors never build out on a consistent basis."
Tell us about that seasonal and lumpy stuff ...... I hate the short-sighted myopia of the current financial markets.
But I think I've posted a previous article about what Intel sees for data centers, which they re-characterized today:
"But more than anything, Krzanich circled back to the staggering amount of data that will be created by all the internet users and connected devices in the long term, which will have to be stored and processed in data centers mostly powered by Intel chips. Intel currently owns over 90% of the data center chip market.
Some numbers he shared to make his point:
•By 2020, an average person will generate about 1.5 GB of data per day off all the devices they use for things like Facebook, Twitter, Salesforce
•That jumps to 20 GB a minute for autonomous drones in 2020
•And it goes up to 40 GB per minute for self-driving cars in 2020
•Virtual reality filming of a sports game would throw off 200 GB a minute"
Somebody has to sell the devices that will store all that data.
Can't explain the relative performance, other than STX had a much larger SI open interest than WDC - once the "upgrades" started rolling out.
And judging from what MSFT is saying, and what we know about AMZN, the cloud service business is bursting at the seams. And all that stuff has to be stored on something made by WDC (& STX). But WDC has a greater exposure.
But actually making a connection to this board is getting more difficult. Keep getting status errors.
I wonder if someone will buy YHOO (or this part of it) and restore the functionality ... and tighten up the spam.
Speaking of which, at least there hasn't been much of that!
I posted something a little more expletive. But of course Yahoo deleted it. For now, my phone finds this directly. Maybe if Yahoo has a change of mind (again), we can continue. That new format is abysmal. worse than this format.
"From 50.81 to 42.18 ( -17%) in TWO trading days, June 24 and 27. Just more evidence of the pervasive short-term, immediate gratification philosophy "
Hammer on nail head.
Just another myopic POV from the bottom looking up.
"..should economies ebb and flow with the natural economic fluctuations or should they be artificially controlled?"
Within a wide range, laissez–faire is OK. But there are extremes where our government should assist. The Great Depression (1930's) and the Great Recession (2008) are examples of those times. And government should also act as a proper regulator of commerce.
Whether the decisions that have been in place since 2008 are appropriate is the subject of a much longer debate.
Funny, then as I ponder what to do, Goldman Sachs throws water on our predicament:
"Goldman Sachs: Neither stocks nor bonds look good right now"
"At the same time, "equities could sell off owing to negative growth surprises and with yields at all-time lows, bonds are unlikely to be good hedges. This leads to a lack of diversification and higher portfolio risk at a time when return potential is already limited."
So is it time to play turtle and find the coffee cans?
I know I'm making light of the situation, but that's really just to keep from crying. This is a serious situation, especially if you have already passed the 60 mark. With the exception of a feeble Social Security system, companies and the government have thrown investors (not traders) to the wolves (and sharks) in trying to pay for the 20+ years you may live after ~62.
For grernlin: what's the root cause?
I think I've complained about this too many times - not just about stocks & investments, but about many things in our society. Fundamentally, we have become far too focused on the short-term. Everybody wants it now. Everybody wants the lowest price. Patience has become a really bad 4 letter word. Don't like something about your situation? Dump it. Try something else. Nevermind the real cause may be you - which you can't really dump. The effort to look in the mirror and fix yourself is never made. Hence, the situation never changes.
Our fiscal policies - and investment advice - have become almost entirely focused on the short-term. Traders - with their large bank accounts, fast computers, and enormous volume (and remember, the exchanges are merely brokers that can only thrive off volume) - have turned the markets into casinos. Just one small example was here recently: what insanity leads to WDC declining 11% in one day over nothing?
Of course, we then get all the choruses saying jump in - what an opportunity!!
This is not how investing was supposed to be.
Off the soapbox.
What to do? What to do?
So an admitted liar says he's always lying. Think about that for a minute. That everybody is always lying to and around the market.
I believe him.
How long have we complained about the trading cartel? The sharks in the water. If an analyst provides an opinion with no basis to support it (other than sources in Asia and channel checks - just synonyms for rumor), then do we believe them?
And sometimes the companies themselves don't help. Yes, I still believe WDC withheld material information from shareholders in late 2015 involving the Unis investment. And every qtr, we have to decide whether to accept GAAP or non-GAAP earnings. Which, at least, the regulators and accountants are trying to fix.
What to do? What to do?
Complain on a Yahoo (or some other) message? It won't do any good, but I would rather accommodate rational venting rather than pent-up rage. We have enough of the latter.
Complain to your representatives or regulators? Go ahead - I'm sure they will listen.
You can attempt to vote the sluggards out of office - maybe get somebody different. Every change has to begin somewhere.
Or you can avoid the markets altogether - which seems to be your (wdcsucks) MO. Underneath the mattress or in coffee cans buried in the yard. You money may be safe. But the problem is: it has zero chance to grow - even to keep up with maybe an anemic inflation rate.
Which always brings me back to thinking about alternatives. The way the financial world has evolved since 2008, what real alternatives do we have for investing? Personally, between business and personal, I have all the real estate I want (it a can be a very illiquid asset, and does require constant maintenance and reinvestment). Hard assets. like gold? Never been much of a goldbug, other than what I give to others. Savings in banks? Almost to the point I have to pay them for the right to hold cash.
Leaves me with the market. (and Yahoo says times (words) up)
It's always a case of your POV. Maybe the stock should have never been marked down so low. Your perspective is from the bottom looking up. So it looks too high.
Were pretty #$%$. DRAM is tough, but the NAND portion is hard to correlate to WDC (Sandisk). Obviously, somebody was drawing correlations to WDC after hours. Just trying to figure out if MU's problems are internal, or market related. The did say prices were higher, and Sandisk is the lowest cost producer of 2D NAND.
It was hard enough judging WDC in the HDD market. Now we have to consider the NAND market.
Oracle ran out of cloud storage recently and had to buy a whole bunch more in a panic. Mostly due to poor resource management and overselling space.
The article about the woman running Intel's Data Center Group is not tagged to WDC.
It should be.
He is the relevant except:
"Certainly, PCs continue to be a very large and wonderful market for us, but what is really exciting is the billions of other devices — that’s where the growth is going to come from," Bryant said at the Bloomberg Technology Conference held in San Francisco on Tuesday. "You’re talking about billions and billions of devices."
Bryant was referring to all the connected devices such as autonomous cars, smart grids, and drones that are collectively known as the internet of things. Intel has a small but rapidly growing IoT chip business that had about $2 billion in revenue last year.
The bigger opportunity will likely come from all the data created by those connected devices, Bryant said. Once these devices reach the mainstream and become more widely used, they will create tons of data that will be sent and processed in data centers most likely powered by Intel chips, which already own 96% market share in the data center market.
To put things in perspective, Bryant said an average smartphone creates about 30 megabytes of data traffic a day. That goes up to 90 megabytes a day for PCs, but jumps to 40 gigabytes of data for autonomous cars. If you go to a connected plane, you're talking about 50 terabytes of data per day, while connected factories could generate petabytes of data, according to Bryant.
"It just dwarfs what your phone and your PC are delivering and demanding from a service and network capacity perspective," she said.
We all know that the data has to be stored on some device - probably more than once.
That wasn't a diss as much as it was a non-commit.
Cramer (& cronies) would much rather you buy stocks near 52-week highs (NVDA, AMAT & LRCX) than stocks recovering from 52-week lows. Three months ago, those three stocks were bouncing around their 52-week lows. Where was Cramer then??? Classic momentum-type advice for traders (Cramer).